Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 25, 2026
Strongsville vs. Painesville Riverside
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 14–48
- Projected winner
- Strongsville
- Margin error
- 37.8
Sep 25, 2026
Stow-Munroe Falls vs. Medina Highland
- Projected
- 24–21
- Final
- 7–42
- Projected winner
- Stow-Munroe Falls
- Margin error
- 37.3
Sep 25, 2026
St. Ignatius vs. Benedictine
- Projected
- 25–23
- Final
- 42–6
- Projected winner
- St. Ignatius
- Margin error
- 33.8
Sep 25, 2026
Solon vs. Hudson
- Projected
- 19–26
- Final
- 3–38
- Projected winner
- Hudson
- Margin error
- 27.6
Sep 25, 2026
Medina vs. Wadsworth
- Projected
- 17–27
- Final
- 7–42
- Projected winner
- Wadsworth
- Margin error
- 25.8
Sep 25, 2026
Massillon Jackson vs. Massillon Perry
- Projected
- 25–18
- Final
- 37–21
- Projected winner
- Massillon Jackson
- Margin error
- 8.8
Sep 25, 2026
Euclid vs. Shaker Heights
- Projected
- 21–18
- Final
- 32–10
- Projected winner
- Euclid
- Margin error
- 19.3
Sep 25, 2026
GlenOak vs. North Canton Hoover
- Projected
- 18–21
- Final
- 14–26
- Projected winner
- North Canton Hoover
- Margin error
- 8.1
Sep 25, 2026
Elyria vs. Avon Lake
- Projected
- 16–22
- Final
- 0–37
- Projected winner
- Avon Lake
- Margin error
- 30.3
Sep 25, 2026
Cleveland Heights vs. Mentor
- Projected
- 14–28
- Final
- 14–49
- Projected winner
- Mentor
- Margin error
- 20.8
Sep 25, 2026
Canton McKinley vs. Uniontown Green
- Projected
- 24–22
- Final
- 35–0
- Projected winner
- Canton McKinley
- Margin error
- 32.6
Sep 25, 2026
Brunswick vs. Lorain
- Projected
- 21–16
- Final
- 53–19
- Projected winner
- Brunswick
- Margin error
- 29.1
Sep 25, 2026
Berea-Midpark vs. Avon
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 21–52
- Projected winner
- Avon
- Margin error
- 30.8
Sep 24, 2026
ND Cathedral Latin vs. Holy Name
- Projected
- 25–22
- Final
- 27–20
- Projected winner
- ND Cathedral Latin
- Margin error
- 4.9
Sep 24, 2026
Belmont vs. North College Hill
- Projected
- 24–25
- Final
- 0–61
- Projected winner
- North College Hill
- Margin error
- 59.3
Sep 24, 2026
Walnut Ridge vs. Columbus West
- Projected
- 13–30
- Final
- 12–30
- Projected winner
- Columbus West
- Margin error
- 1.4
Sep 24, 2026
Bowsher vs. Waite
- Projected
- 18–20
- Final
- 14–45
- Projected winner
- Waite
- Margin error
- 29.8
Sep 19, 2026
Sidney Lehman vs. Troy Christian
- Projected
- 16–21
- Final
- 14–40
- Projected winner
- Troy Christian
- Margin error
- 21.5
Sep 19, 2026
Fremont St. Joseph vs. Stryker
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 55–12
- Projected winner
- Stryker
- Margin error
- 48.5
Sep 19, 2026
Chalker vs. Kennedy Catholic
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 58–8
- Projected winner
- Kennedy Catholic
- Margin error
- 52.2
Sep 19, 2026
Pymatuning Valley vs. Ashtabula St. John
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 14–26
- Projected winner
- Pymatuning Valley
- Margin error
- 14.0
Sep 19, 2026
Ponitz vs. Cincinnati Eagles (club)
- Projected
- 15–23
- Final
- 38–8
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati Eagles (club)
- Margin error
- 37.7
Sep 19, 2026
Aiken vs. Cincinnati Hills CA
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 18–46
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati Hills CA
- Margin error
- 25.2
Sep 19, 2026
Buchtel vs. Cardinal Mooney
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 0–34
- Projected winner
- Cardinal Mooney
- Margin error
- 28.3
Sep 19, 2026
University School vs. Akron East
- Projected
- 26–19
- Final
- 20–21
- Projected winner
- University School
- Margin error
- 8.1
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–20 | 14–48 | Strongsville | Painesville Riverside | 37.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 24–21 | 7–42 | Stow-Munroe Falls | Medina Highland | 37.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–23 | 42–6 | St. Ignatius | St. Ignatius | 33.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–26 | 3–38 | Hudson | Hudson | 27.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 17–27 | 7–42 | Wadsworth | Wadsworth | 25.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–18 | 37–21 | Massillon Jackson | Massillon Jackson | 8.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–18 | 32–10 | Euclid | Euclid | 19.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 18–21 | 14–26 | North Canton Hoover | North Canton Hoover | 8.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 16–22 | 0–37 | Avon Lake | Avon Lake | 30.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 14–28 | 14–49 | Mentor | Mentor | 20.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 24–22 | 35–0 | Canton McKinley | Canton McKinley | 32.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–16 | 53–19 | Brunswick | Brunswick | 29.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–24 | 21–52 | Avon | Avon | 30.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 25–22 | 27–20 | ND Cathedral Latin | ND Cathedral Latin | 4.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 24–25 | 0–61 | North College Hill | North College Hill | 59.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 13–30 | 12–30 | Columbus West | Columbus West | 1.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 18–20 | 14–45 | Waite | Waite | 29.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | 16–21 | 14–40 | Troy Christian | Troy Christian | 21.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | 19–25 | 55–12 | Stryker | Fremont St. Joseph | 48.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | 22–24 | 58–8 | Kennedy Catholic | Chalker | 52.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | 23–20 | 14–26 | Pymatuning Valley | Ashtabula St. John | 14.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | 15–23 | 38–8 | Cincinnati Eagles (club) | Ponitz | 37.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | 21–23 | 18–46 | Cincinnati Hills CA | Cincinnati Hills CA | 25.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | 18–24 | 0–34 | Cardinal Mooney | Cardinal Mooney | 28.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | 26–19 | 20–21 | University School | Akron East | 8.1 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
