Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 21, 2026
Stow-Munroe Falls vs. Aurora
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 34–36
- Projected winner
- Aurora
- Margin error
- 4.7
Aug 21, 2026
Lakewood St. Edward vs. Olentangy Liberty
- Projected
- 28–19
- Final
- 15–12
- Projected winner
- Lakewood St. Edward
- Margin error
- 6.0
Aug 21, 2026
Solon vs. Kenston
- Projected
- 15–26
- Final
- 9–26
- Projected winner
- Kenston
- Margin error
- 5.9
Aug 21, 2026
Shaker Heights vs. Geneva
- Projected
- 15–29
- Final
- 28–21
- Projected winner
- Geneva
- Margin error
- 21.1
Aug 21, 2026
Mentor vs. Olmsted Falls
- Projected
- 29–20
- Final
- 38–17
- Projected winner
- Mentor
- Margin error
- 11.3
Aug 21, 2026
Medina vs. Findlay
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 7–27
- Projected winner
- Findlay
- Margin error
- 17.1
Aug 21, 2026
Lorain vs. Maple Heights
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 28–48
- Projected winner
- Maple Heights
- Margin error
- 18.9
Aug 21, 2026
GlenOak vs. Dover
- Projected
- 14–26
- Final
- 21–36
- Projected winner
- Dover
- Margin error
- 2.7
Aug 21, 2026
Euclid vs. Brush
- Projected
- 18–22
- Final
- 14–6
- Projected winner
- Brush
- Margin error
- 11.4
Aug 21, 2026
Elyria vs. Mayfield
- Projected
- 16–20
- Final
- 10–55
- Projected winner
- Mayfield
- Margin error
- 40.7
Aug 21, 2026
Cleveland Heights vs. Wadsworth
- Projected
- 21–26
- Final
- 6–28
- Projected winner
- Wadsworth
- Margin error
- 16.3
Aug 21, 2026
Canton McKinley vs. Warren G. Harding
- Projected
- 24–20
- Final
- 33–0
- Projected winner
- Canton McKinley
- Margin error
- 28.4
Aug 21, 2026
Berea-Midpark vs. Brunswick
- Projected
- 26–16
- Final
- 42–47
- Projected winner
- Berea-Midpark
- Margin error
- 15.6
Aug 20, 2026
Cardinal vs. LaBrae
- Projected
- 18–20
- Final
- 0–49
- Projected winner
- LaBrae
- Margin error
- 46.8
Aug 20, 2026
River vs. Portsmouth Notre Dame
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 41–6
- Projected winner
- Portsmouth Notre Dame
- Margin error
- 41.9
Aug 20, 2026
Conotton Valley vs. Tuscarawas Central Catholic
- Projected
- 23–16
- Final
- 46–12
- Projected winner
- Conotton Valley
- Margin error
- 26.6
Aug 20, 2026
Bridgeport vs. Frontier
- Projected
- 17–22
- Final
- 14–50
- Projected winner
- Frontier
- Margin error
- 30.9
Aug 20, 2026
Delphos St. John's vs. Sidney Lehman
- Projected
- 15–25
- Final
- 40–6
- Projected winner
- Sidney Lehman
- Margin error
- 44.0
Aug 20, 2026
Tiffin Calvert vs. Leipsic
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 3–40
- Projected winner
- Leipsic
- Margin error
- 35.2
Aug 20, 2026
Jackson-Milton vs. Mathews
- Projected
- 15–22
- Final
- 27–34
- Projected winner
- Mathews
- Margin error
- 0.2
Aug 20, 2026
David Anderson vs. Leetonia
- Projected
- 24–15
- Final
- 14–0
- Projected winner
- David Anderson
- Margin error
- 4.6
Aug 20, 2026
Gamble Montessori vs. Stivers School For The Arts
- Projected
- 16–19
- Final
- 50–6
- Projected winner
- Stivers School For The Arts
- Margin error
- 47.0
Aug 20, 2026
Montpelier vs. Antwerp
- Projected
- 24–15
- Final
- 21–14
- Projected winner
- Montpelier
- Margin error
- 2.6
Aug 20, 2026
Colonel Crawford vs. Fairbanks
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 45–21
- Projected winner
- Colonel Crawford
- Margin error
- 22.6
Aug 20, 2026
Columbus Grove vs. Pandora-Gilboa
- Projected
- 27–22
- Final
- 42–12
- Projected winner
- Columbus Grove
- Margin error
- 25.3
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–25 | 34–36 | Aurora | Aurora | 4.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 28–19 | 15–12 | Lakewood St. Edward | Lakewood St. Edward | 6.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 15–26 | 9–26 | Kenston | Kenston | 5.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 15–29 | 28–21 | Geneva | Shaker Heights | 21.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 29–20 | 38–17 | Mentor | Mentor | 11.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–23 | 7–27 | Findlay | Findlay | 17.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–23 | 28–48 | Maple Heights | Maple Heights | 18.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 14–26 | 21–36 | Dover | Dover | 2.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–22 | 14–6 | Brush | Euclid | 11.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 16–20 | 10–55 | Mayfield | Mayfield | 40.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–26 | 6–28 | Wadsworth | Wadsworth | 16.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–20 | 33–0 | Canton McKinley | Canton McKinley | 28.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 26–16 | 42–47 | Berea-Midpark | Brunswick | 15.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 20, 2026 | 18–20 | 0–49 | LaBrae | LaBrae | 46.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 20, 2026 | 18–25 | 41–6 | Portsmouth Notre Dame | River | 41.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 20, 2026 | 23–16 | 46–12 | Conotton Valley | Conotton Valley | 26.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 20, 2026 | 17–22 | 14–50 | Frontier | Frontier | 30.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 20, 2026 | 15–25 | 40–6 | Sidney Lehman | Delphos St. John's | 44.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 20, 2026 | 21–23 | 3–40 | Leipsic | Leipsic | 35.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 20, 2026 | 15–22 | 27–34 | Mathews | Mathews | 0.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 20, 2026 | 24–15 | 14–0 | David Anderson | David Anderson | 4.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 20, 2026 | 16–19 | 50–6 | Stivers School For The Arts | Gamble Montessori | 47.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 20, 2026 | 24–15 | 21–14 | Montpelier | Montpelier | 2.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 20, 2026 | 23–22 | 45–21 | Colonel Crawford | Colonel Crawford | 22.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 20, 2026 | 27–22 | 42–12 | Columbus Grove | Columbus Grove | 25.3 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
