Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 25, 2026
St. Charles vs. Bishop Hartley
- Projected
- 26–16
- Final
- 38–0
- Projected winner
- St. Charles
- Margin error
- 28.0
Sep 25, 2026
Northland vs. Centennial
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 6–0
- Projected winner
- Centennial
- Margin error
- 6.5
Sep 25, 2026
Mount Vernon vs. Granville
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 35–42
- Projected winner
- Granville
- Margin error
- 3.8
Sep 25, 2026
Mifflin vs. Beechcroft
- Projected
- 13–23
- Final
- 0–40
- Projected winner
- Beechcroft
- Margin error
- 30.7
Sep 25, 2026
Marion Harding vs. Clear Fork
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 7–21
- Projected winner
- Marion Harding
- Margin error
- 14.8
Sep 25, 2026
Licking Heights vs. Zanesville
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 12–37
- Projected winner
- Zanesville
- Margin error
- 17.3
Sep 25, 2026
Columbus Independence vs. Briggs
- Projected
- 15–22
- Final
- 14–16
- Projected winner
- Briggs
- Margin error
- 5.2
Sep 25, 2026
Uniontown Lake vs. Louisville
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 15–16
- Projected winner
- Louisville
- Margin error
- 0.1
Sep 25, 2026
Big Walnut vs. Ironton
- Projected
- 25–27
- Final
- 47–40
- Projected winner
- Ironton
- Margin error
- 8.6
Sep 25, 2026
Valley Forge vs. Medina Buckeye
- Projected
- 15–23
- Final
- 14–19
- Projected winner
- Medina Buckeye
- Margin error
- 2.1
Sep 25, 2026
Toledo St. Francis vs. Warren De La Salle
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 2–17
- Projected winner
- Warren De La Salle
- Margin error
- 9.3
Sep 25, 2026
Toledo St. John's vs. Detroit Catholic Central
- Projected
- 20–27
- Final
- 3–36
- Projected winner
- Detroit Catholic Central
- Margin error
- 25.9
Sep 25, 2026
Holland Springfield vs. Bowling Green
- Projected
- 21–18
- Final
- 37–9
- Projected winner
- Holland Springfield
- Margin error
- 24.8
Sep 25, 2026
Olmsted Falls vs. Amherst Steele
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 42–7
- Projected winner
- Olmsted Falls
- Margin error
- 32.0
Sep 25, 2026
North Olmsted vs. Bay
- Projected
- 24–14
- Final
- 41–28
- Projected winner
- North Olmsted
- Margin error
- 3.8
Sep 25, 2026
Normandy vs. Rocky River
- Projected
- 14–28
- Final
- 0–83
- Projected winner
- Rocky River
- Margin error
- 68.7
Sep 25, 2026
Midview vs. North Ridgeville
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 27–31
- Projected winner
- North Ridgeville
- Margin error
- 1.1
Sep 25, 2026
Lakewood vs. Westlake
- Projected
- 23–18
- Final
- 48–42
- Projected winner
- Lakewood
- Margin error
- 1.1
Sep 25, 2026
Fremont Ross vs. Liberty-Benton
- Projected
- 21–19
- Final
- 42–14
- Projected winner
- Fremont Ross
- Margin error
- 26.2
Sep 25, 2026
Toledo Central Catholic vs. Lumen Christi
- Projected
- 25–24
- Final
- 49–7
- Projected winner
- Toledo Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 40.5
Sep 25, 2026
Barberton vs. Copley
- Projected
- 17–27
- Final
- 26–30
- Projected winner
- Copley
- Margin error
- 5.7
Sep 25, 2026
Warren G. Harding vs. Scott
- Projected
- 20–17
- Final
- 52–0
- Projected winner
- Warren G. Harding
- Margin error
- 48.3
Sep 25, 2026
Twinsburg vs. Kenston
- Projected
- 18–22
- Final
- 14–42
- Projected winner
- Kenston
- Margin error
- 24.5
Sep 25, 2026
Kent Roosevelt vs. Field
- Projected
- 22–16
- Final
- 60–0
- Projected winner
- Kent Roosevelt
- Margin error
- 54.4
Sep 25, 2026
Willoughby South vs. Chardon
- Projected
- 29–17
- Final
- 35–28
- Projected winner
- Willoughby South
- Margin error
- 4.3
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | 26–16 | 38–0 | St. Charles | St. Charles | 28.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–20 | 6–0 | Centennial | Northland | 6.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–23 | 35–42 | Granville | Granville | 3.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 13–23 | 0–40 | Beechcroft | Beechcroft | 30.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–22 | 7–21 | Marion Harding | Clear Fork | 14.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 17–25 | 12–37 | Zanesville | Zanesville | 17.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 15–22 | 14–16 | Briggs | Briggs | 5.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–23 | 15–16 | Louisville | Louisville | 0.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–27 | 47–40 | Ironton | Big Walnut | 8.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 15–23 | 14–19 | Medina Buckeye | Medina Buckeye | 2.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 18–23 | 2–17 | Warren De La Salle | Warren De La Salle | 9.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–27 | 3–36 | Detroit Catholic Central | Detroit Catholic Central | 25.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–18 | 37–9 | Holland Springfield | Holland Springfield | 24.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–20 | 42–7 | Olmsted Falls | Olmsted Falls | 32.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 24–14 | 41–28 | North Olmsted | North Olmsted | 3.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 14–28 | 0–83 | Rocky River | Rocky River | 68.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–22 | 27–31 | North Ridgeville | North Ridgeville | 1.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–18 | 48–42 | Lakewood | Lakewood | 1.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–19 | 42–14 | Fremont Ross | Fremont Ross | 26.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–24 | 49–7 | Toledo Central Catholic | Toledo Central Catholic | 40.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 17–27 | 26–30 | Copley | Copley | 5.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–17 | 52–0 | Warren G. Harding | Warren G. Harding | 48.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 18–22 | 14–42 | Kenston | Kenston | 24.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–16 | 60–0 | Kent Roosevelt | Kent Roosevelt | 54.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 29–17 | 35–28 | Willoughby South | Willoughby South | 4.3 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
