Methodology
Project Matchup turns Ohio Sports Power Ratings into a projected score, point spread, win estimate, and plausible score range. It is an analytics tool for comparison, not a guarantee or betting advice.
For football, OSPR blends normalized CalPreps-style, Elo, and Colley ratings. The current football weights are 40%, 35%, and 25%. Stored offensive, defensive, momentum, and rating-confidence values provide additional context.
The matchup calculation uses the teams' OSPR strength, offensive and defensive ratings, current-season evidence, and the selected game location to estimate one expected scoring margin.
Project Matchup uses each team's persisted OSPR, offensive rating, and defensive rating when available. Current-season games determine rating confidence; preseason differences are deliberately tempered while evidence is limited.
The home team receives a three-point football home-field adjustment. Neutral-site matchups receive no location adjustment.
Each offense is compared with the opposing defense. Those matchup differences refine the rating-based point margin.
The calculation begins from a football scoring baseline, adjusts the expected total for both teams' offensive and defensive ratings, and divides that total according to the expected margin. All displayed scores derive from that same margin.
Rating confidence controls the width of the score ranges. Fewer current-season games produce wider ranges; more evidence narrows them. The public accuracy page evaluates locked pregame projections after final scores arrive.
The central estimate of the score and expected difference between the teams.
The directional likelihood implied by the expected point margin. It does not describe data quality.
A measure of current-season rating evidence and matchup separation. Low confidence should temper a strong-looking win estimate.
The range implied by both teams' score intervals. If it crosses zero, outcomes where either team wins fall inside the displayed range.
