Season Profile
- Record
- 0-2
- Coach
- Matt Kostelnik
- Football league
- Southwestern Conference · OSPR 48.7
- Division
- Division 2
- Region
- Region 6
Avon Lake Shoremen (
0-2
)
Avon Lake, OH
2026 Team Snapshot
Model outlook updated Aug 31, 2026 2:00 AM · 10,000 simulations
OSPR Standing
44.8
Through Week 2
- Statewide
- #487
- Division
- #64
- Region
- #14
Previous: After Week 1
OSPR 44.7 · Statewide #379 · Division #49 · Region #12
Season Outlook
- Current Harbin points
- 0.00
- Projected regional seed
- #17
- Most likely record
- 3-7
- Expected wins
- 3.5
- Playoff qualification
- 27.3%
Next Opponent
Friday, Sep 4, 2026
Projected score: 17–23 (31.4% win estimate)
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 12:19 AM
More OSPR details Rating components, playoff chances, and next-game scenarios
Detailed OSPR rating
Team Rating
What is OSPR?OSPR
44.8
C
Tier
Rank
#64
Harbin
0.00
Falling
Confidence
27%
Show Legacy Ratings
ELO
1461
CalPreps
-1.19
FPI
-9.76
OSPR Season Outlook
Monte Carlo projections based on current OSPR ratings and Harbin rules.
Updated Aug 31, 2026 2:00 AM · 10,000 simulations
Regular Season Projections
- Most likely record
- 3–7
- Expected wins
- 3.5
- Average Harbin
- 10.91
- Likely regional seed
- #17
Harbin range: 0.00–28.35
The record is the most common result; Harbin points are averaged across all simulations.
Playoff Chances Now
- Qualify
- 27.3%
- Home position
- 11.0%
- First-round bye
- 2.2%
Top 12
Top 8
Top 4
Depending on the Next Game
vs. Medina Highland
Win
12.14 Harbin
· #17 seed
35.2% in · 15.5% home · 3.3% bye
Loss
9.35 Harbin
· #24 seed
17.2% in · 5.3% home · 0.8% bye
2026 Schedule
OSPR percentages show Avon Lake's chance to win.
Schedule predictions use the current OSPR ratings for this season.
Final
Aug 21, 2026
24
22
Pick: W by 1 (50.4%)
Projected score: 23–22
Low calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 20, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Aug 28, 2026
14
13
Pick: W by 4 (62.3%)
Projected score: 22–18
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 27, 2026 10:35 AM
Scheduled
Sep 04, 2026
Pick: L by 6 (31.4%)
Projected score: 17–23
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 12:19 AM
Scheduled
Sep 11, 2026
Midview
(2-0)
Pick: L by 5 (33.4%)
Projected score: 18–23
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 12:19 AM
Scheduled
Sep 18, 2026
Pick: L by 12 (16.0%)
Projected score: 15–27
High calibration
Limited Data
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 12:19 AM
Scheduled
Sep 25, 2026
Elyria
(0-2)
Pick: L by 4 (39.4%)
Projected score: 17–21
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 12:19 AM
Scheduled
Oct 02, 2026
Pick: L by 2 (42.7%)
Projected score: 20–22
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 12:19 AM
Scheduled
Oct 09, 2026
Pick: L by 1 (44.2%)
Projected score: 20–21
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 12:19 AM
Scheduled
Oct 16, 2026
Avon
(1-1)
Pick: L by 2 (44.1%)
Projected score: 19–21
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 12:19 AM
Scheduled
Oct 23, 2026
Pick: L by 13 (14.4%)
Projected score: 14–27
High calibration
Limited Data
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 12:19 AM
| Date | Location | Opponent | Division | Result | Score | OSPR Prediction | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/21 | H | Division 1, Region 1 | L | 22-24 |
Pick: W by 1 (50.4%) Projected score: 23–22
Low calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 20, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 08/28 | H | Division 3, Region 9 | L | 13-14 |
Pick: W by 4 (62.3%) Projected score: 22–18
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 27, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 09/04 | A | Division 2, Region 5 | — |
Pick: L by 6 (31.4%) Projected score: 17–23
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 12:19 AM |
|||
| 09/11 | H | Division 3, Region 10 | — |
Pick: L by 5 (33.4%) Projected score: 18–23
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 12:19 AM |
|||
| 09/18 | A | Division 2, Region 6 | — |
Pick: L by 12 (16.0%) Projected score: 15–27
High calibration
Limited Data
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 12:19 AM |
|||
| 09/25 | A | Division 1, Region 1 | — |
Pick: L by 4 (39.4%) Projected score: 17–21
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 12:19 AM |
|||
| 10/02 | H | Division 2, Region 6 | — |
Pick: L by 2 (42.7%) Projected score: 20–22
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 12:19 AM |
|||
| 10/09 | A | Division 2, Region 6 | — |
Pick: L by 1 (44.2%) Projected score: 20–21
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 12:19 AM |
|||
| 10/16 | H | Division 2, Region 6 | — |
Pick: L by 2 (44.1%) Projected score: 19–21
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 12:19 AM |
|||
| 10/23 | A | Division 1, Region 1 | — |
Pick: L by 13 (14.4%) Projected score: 14–27
High calibration
Limited Data
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 12:19 AM |
Disclaimer: These ratings are provided for informational purposes only. These ratings are computed using my implementation of the OHSAA playoff rating system outlined here, and do not reflect any personal opinions or bias regarding the relative strength or ability of any individual teams. By viewing these ratings, you agree that any misinformation provided is unintentional. Further, you also agree that the site owner and/or content writer cannot and will not be held responsible for any damages resulting from use of information published on this site.
