Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 25, 2026
Westland vs. Dublin Scioto
- Projected
- 25–15
- Final
- 49–14
- Projected winner
- Westland
- Margin error
- 24.7
Sep 25, 2026
Westerville North vs. Westerville South
- Projected
- 23–18
- Final
- 23–7
- Projected winner
- Westerville North
- Margin error
- 11.0
Sep 25, 2026
Thomas Worthington vs. Olentangy
- Projected
- 21–17
- Final
- 14–49
- Projected winner
- Thomas Worthington
- Margin error
- 38.8
Sep 25, 2026
Reynoldsburg vs. Logan
- Projected
- 22–17
- Final
- 41–7
- Projected winner
- Reynoldsburg
- Margin error
- 28.8
Sep 25, 2026
Pickerington North vs. Westerville Central
- Projected
- 27–20
- Final
- 45–7
- Projected winner
- Pickerington North
- Margin error
- 30.7
Sep 25, 2026
Newark vs. Canal Winchester
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 14–44
- Projected winner
- Newark
- Margin error
- 30.6
Sep 25, 2026
Lancaster vs. Pickerington Central
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 7–40
- Projected winner
- Pickerington Central
- Margin error
- 30.9
Sep 25, 2026
Hilliard Davidson vs. Olentangy Orange
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 6–25
- Projected winner
- Olentangy Orange
- Margin error
- 15.7
Sep 25, 2026
Hilliard Darby vs. Olentangy Berlin
- Projected
- 25–20
- Final
- 19–20
- Projected winner
- Hilliard Darby
- Margin error
- 5.7
Sep 25, 2026
Hilliard Bradley vs. Upper Arlington
- Projected
- 26–22
- Final
- 7–24
- Projected winner
- Hilliard Bradley
- Margin error
- 21.3
Sep 25, 2026
Groveport-Madison vs. Teays Valley
- Projected
- 24–20
- Final
- 21–12
- Projected winner
- Groveport-Madison
- Margin error
- 4.1
Sep 25, 2026
Grove City vs. New Albany
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 21–28
- Projected winner
- Grove City
- Margin error
- 7.6
Sep 25, 2026
Gahanna Lincoln vs. Central Crossing
- Projected
- 25–16
- Final
- 38–0
- Projected winner
- Gahanna Lincoln
- Margin error
- 28.8
Sep 25, 2026
Whitmer vs. Anthony Wayne
- Projected
- 26–20
- Final
- 10–7
- Projected winner
- Whitmer
- Margin error
- 2.7
Sep 25, 2026
Start vs. Rogers
- Projected
- 19–16
- Final
- 26–12
- Projected winner
- Start
- Margin error
- 11.2
Sep 25, 2026
Springboro vs. Springfield
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 20–24
- Projected winner
- Springboro
- Margin error
- 6.0
Sep 25, 2026
Perrysburg vs. Northview
- Projected
- 28–14
- Final
- 62–0
- Projected winner
- Perrysburg
- Margin error
- 47.3
Sep 25, 2026
Northmont vs. Wayne
- Projected
- 16–23
- Final
- 24–49
- Projected winner
- Wayne
- Margin error
- 17.5
Sep 25, 2026
Middletown vs. Sycamore
- Projected
- 21–17
- Final
- 41–0
- Projected winner
- Middletown
- Margin error
- 36.7
Sep 25, 2026
Fairmont vs. Miamisburg
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 21–22
- Projected winner
- Miamisburg
- Margin error
- 5.2
Sep 25, 2026
Findlay vs. Oregon Clay
- Projected
- 20–27
- Final
- 28–29
- Projected winner
- Oregon Clay
- Margin error
- 6.4
Sep 25, 2026
Dublin Jerome vs. Marysville
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 45–12
- Projected winner
- Dublin Jerome
- Margin error
- 31.5
Sep 25, 2026
Dublin Coffman vs. Olentangy Liberty
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 3–31
- Projected winner
- Dublin Coffman
- Margin error
- 29.0
Sep 25, 2026
Delaware Hayes vs. Worthington Kilbourne
- Projected
- 14–31
- Final
- 7–38
- Projected winner
- Worthington Kilbourne
- Margin error
- 14.8
Sep 25, 2026
Beavercreek vs. Centerville
- Projected
- 25–15
- Final
- 21–20
- Projected winner
- Beavercreek
- Margin error
- 9.4
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–15 | 49–14 | Westland | Westland | 24.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–18 | 23–7 | Westerville North | Westerville North | 11.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–17 | 14–49 | Thomas Worthington | Olentangy | 38.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–17 | 41–7 | Reynoldsburg | Reynoldsburg | 28.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 27–20 | 45–7 | Pickerington North | Pickerington North | 30.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–21 | 14–44 | Newark | Canal Winchester | 30.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–22 | 7–40 | Pickerington Central | Pickerington Central | 30.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–22 | 6–25 | Olentangy Orange | Olentangy Orange | 15.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–20 | 19–20 | Hilliard Darby | Olentangy Berlin | 5.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 26–22 | 7–24 | Hilliard Bradley | Upper Arlington | 21.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 24–20 | 21–12 | Groveport-Madison | Groveport-Madison | 4.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–22 | 21–28 | Grove City | New Albany | 7.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–16 | 38–0 | Gahanna Lincoln | Gahanna Lincoln | 28.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 26–20 | 10–7 | Whitmer | Whitmer | 2.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–16 | 26–12 | Start | Start | 11.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–22 | 20–24 | Springboro | Springfield | 6.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 28–14 | 62–0 | Perrysburg | Perrysburg | 47.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 16–23 | 24–49 | Wayne | Wayne | 17.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–17 | 41–0 | Middletown | Middletown | 36.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 18–24 | 21–22 | Miamisburg | Miamisburg | 5.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–27 | 28–29 | Oregon Clay | Oregon Clay | 6.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–19 | 45–12 | Dublin Jerome | Dublin Jerome | 31.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–20 | 3–31 | Dublin Coffman | Olentangy Liberty | 29.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 14–31 | 7–38 | Worthington Kilbourne | Worthington Kilbourne | 14.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–15 | 21–20 | Beavercreek | Beavercreek | 9.4 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
