Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 9, 2026
Waterford vs. Federal Hocking
- Projected
- 25–15
- Final
- 68–0
- Projected winner
- Waterford
- Margin error
- 58.0
Oct 9, 2026
South Gallia vs. Franklin Furnace Green
- Projected
- 22–15
- Final
- 47–0
- Projected winner
- South Gallia
- Margin error
- 39.9
Oct 9, 2026
Frontier vs. Cameron
- Projected
- 27–21
- Final
- 14–46
- Projected winner
- Frontier
- Margin error
- 37.2
Oct 9, 2026
Reedsville Eastern vs. Trimble
- Projected
- 24–19
- Final
- 55–30
- Projected winner
- Reedsville Eastern
- Margin error
- 20.2
Oct 9, 2026
Cardington-Lincoln vs. Danville
- Projected
- 13–29
- Final
- 6–52
- Projected winner
- Danville
- Margin error
- 29.9
Oct 9, 2026
Caldwell vs. Shadyside
- Projected
- 16–28
- Final
- 7–33
- Projected winner
- Shadyside
- Margin error
- 14.4
Oct 9, 2026
Bishop Rosecrans vs. Miller
- Projected
- 16–17
- Final
- 27–0
- Projected winner
- Miller
- Margin error
- 28.2
Oct 9, 2026
Berne Union vs. Fisher Catholic
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 23–7
- Projected winner
- Fisher Catholic
- Margin error
- 16.8
Oct 9, 2026
Lima Perry vs. Upper Scioto Valley
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 14–6
- Projected winner
- Upper Scioto Valley
- Margin error
- 8.1
Oct 9, 2026
Hardin Northern vs. Waynesfield-Goshen
- Projected
- 15–25
- Final
- 6–20
- Projected winner
- Waynesfield-Goshen
- Margin error
- 3.5
Oct 9, 2026
Edon vs. North Central
- Projected
- 27–17
- Final
- 57–6
- Projected winner
- Edon
- Margin error
- 41.2
Oct 9, 2026
Cory-Rawson vs. North Baltimore
- Projected
- 10–31
- Final
- 21–66
- Projected winner
- North Baltimore
- Margin error
- 23.8
Oct 9, 2026
Arlington vs. Ridgedale
- Projected
- 21–15
- Final
- 43–16
- Projected winner
- Arlington
- Margin error
- 21.2
Oct 9, 2026
Arcadia vs. Pandora-Gilboa
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 0–31
- Projected winner
- Arcadia
- Margin error
- 31.8
Oct 9, 2026
Ada vs. McComb
- Projected
- 26–22
- Final
- 0–35
- Projected winner
- Ada
- Margin error
- 39.8
Oct 9, 2026
Toronto vs. Monroe Central
- Projected
- 25–21
- Final
- 0–39
- Projected winner
- Toronto
- Margin error
- 42.8
Oct 9, 2026
South Central vs. Norwalk St. Paul
- Projected
- 20–18
- Final
- 0–34
- Projected winner
- South Central
- Margin error
- 36.6
Oct 9, 2026
Mathews vs. Ashtabula St. John
- Projected
- 23–18
- Final
- 6–28
- Projected winner
- Mathews
- Margin error
- 26.4
Oct 9, 2026
Lowellville vs. McDonald
- Projected
- 21–26
- Final
- 14–53
- Projected winner
- McDonald
- Margin error
- 34.4
Oct 9, 2026
David Anderson vs. Salineville Southern
- Projected
- 22–14
- Final
- 38–0
- Projected winner
- David Anderson
- Margin error
- 29.9
Oct 9, 2026
Cuyahoga Heights vs. Independence
- Projected
- 26–18
- Final
- 34–0
- Projected winner
- Cuyahoga Heights
- Margin error
- 26.3
Oct 9, 2026
Crestline vs. Conotton Valley
- Projected
- 12–29
- Final
- 31–22
- Projected winner
- Conotton Valley
- Margin error
- 25.6
Oct 9, 2026
Buckeye Central vs. Tiffin Calvert
- Projected
- 18–15
- Final
- 0–35
- Projected winner
- Buckeye Central
- Margin error
- 37.8
Oct 9, 2026
Steubenville Catholic Central vs. Bridgeport
- Projected
- 18–20
- Final
- 34–18
- Projected winner
- Bridgeport
- Margin error
- 17.5
Oct 9, 2026
National Trail vs. Twin Valley South
- Projected
- 20–17
- Final
- 54–12
- Projected winner
- National Trail
- Margin error
- 38.1
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | 25–15 | 68–0 | Waterford | Waterford | 58.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 22–15 | 47–0 | South Gallia | South Gallia | 39.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 27–21 | 14–46 | Frontier | Cameron | 37.2 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 24–19 | 55–30 | Reedsville Eastern | Reedsville Eastern | 20.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 13–29 | 6–52 | Danville | Danville | 29.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 16–28 | 7–33 | Shadyside | Shadyside | 14.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 16–17 | 27–0 | Miller | Bishop Rosecrans | 28.2 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 21–22 | 23–7 | Fisher Catholic | Berne Union | 16.8 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 19–20 | 14–6 | Upper Scioto Valley | Lima Perry | 8.1 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 15–25 | 6–20 | Waynesfield-Goshen | Waynesfield-Goshen | 3.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 27–17 | 57–6 | Edon | Edon | 41.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 10–31 | 21–66 | North Baltimore | North Baltimore | 23.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 21–15 | 43–16 | Arlington | Arlington | 21.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 22–21 | 0–31 | Arcadia | Pandora-Gilboa | 31.8 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 26–22 | 0–35 | Ada | McComb | 39.8 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 25–21 | 0–39 | Toronto | Monroe Central | 42.8 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20–18 | 0–34 | South Central | Norwalk St. Paul | 36.6 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 23–18 | 6–28 | Mathews | Ashtabula St. John | 26.4 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 21–26 | 14–53 | McDonald | McDonald | 34.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 22–14 | 38–0 | David Anderson | David Anderson | 29.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 26–18 | 34–0 | Cuyahoga Heights | Cuyahoga Heights | 26.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 12–29 | 31–22 | Conotton Valley | Crestline | 25.6 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 18–15 | 0–35 | Buckeye Central | Tiffin Calvert | 37.8 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 18–20 | 34–18 | Bridgeport | Steubenville Catholic Central | 17.5 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20–17 | 54–12 | National Trail | National Trail | 38.1 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
