Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 18, 2026
Cory-Rawson vs. Hardin Northern
- Projected
- 15–20
- Final
- 14–28
- Projected winner
- Hardin Northern
- Margin error
- 9.4
Sep 18, 2026
Antwerp vs. Edgerton
- Projected
- 20–18
- Final
- 42–7
- Projected winner
- Antwerp
- Margin error
- 33.4
Sep 18, 2026
Ada vs. Lima Perry
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 42–6
- Projected winner
- Ada
- Margin error
- 33.6
Sep 18, 2026
Windham vs. St. Mary Central Catholic
- Projected
- 26–17
- Final
- 12–49
- Projected winner
- Windham
- Margin error
- 46.2
Sep 18, 2026
Valley Christian vs. Wellsville
- Projected
- 13–23
- Final
- 23–7
- Projected winner
- Wellsville
- Margin error
- 25.7
Sep 18, 2026
Toronto vs. Oak Glen
- Projected
- 25–23
- Final
- 28–7
- Projected winner
- Toronto
- Margin error
- 19.2
Sep 18, 2026
Lucas vs. Tiffin Calvert
- Projected
- 23–16
- Final
- 34–14
- Projected winner
- Lucas
- Margin error
- 12.8
Sep 18, 2026
Leetonia vs. Mathews
- Projected
- 21–19
- Final
- 28–32
- Projected winner
- Leetonia
- Margin error
- 5.7
Sep 18, 2026
Triad vs. Cedarville
- Projected
- 22–17
- Final
- 27–28
- Projected winner
- Triad
- Margin error
- 6.4
Sep 18, 2026
Parkway vs. St. Henry
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 0–54
- Projected winner
- St. Henry
- Margin error
- 48.2
Sep 18, 2026
Greeneview vs. Mechanicsburg
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 7–41
- Projected winner
- Greeneview
- Margin error
- 35.1
Sep 18, 2026
Fairbanks vs. Southeastern Local
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 22–0
- Projected winner
- Southeastern Local
- Margin error
- 22.9
Sep 18, 2026
Dixie vs. National Trail
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 0–33
- Projected winner
- Dixie
- Margin error
- 33.6
Sep 18, 2026
Dayton Christian vs. New Miami
- Projected
- 26–14
- Final
- 41–0
- Projected winner
- Dayton Christian
- Margin error
- 28.2
Sep 18, 2026
Covington vs. Riverside
- Projected
- 16–26
- Final
- 17–27
- Projected winner
- Riverside
- Margin error
- 0.1
Sep 18, 2026
Coldwater vs. Minster
- Projected
- 22–26
- Final
- 21–24
- Projected winner
- Minster
- Margin error
- 0.7
Sep 18, 2026
Anna vs. Marion Local
- Projected
- 18–29
- Final
- 14–41
- Projected winner
- Marion Local
- Margin error
- 16.5
Sep 18, 2026
Allen East vs. Lima Central Catholic
- Projected
- 23–26
- Final
- 14–55
- Projected winner
- Lima Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 38.4
Sep 18, 2026
Symmes Valley vs. Fairfield Christian
- Projected
- 29–14
- Final
- 48–7
- Projected winner
- Symmes Valley
- Margin error
- 25.7
Sep 18, 2026
Chillicothe Southeastern vs. Paint Valley
- Projected
- 24–15
- Final
- 20–15
- Projected winner
- Chillicothe Southeastern
- Margin error
- 4.2
Sep 18, 2026
Shenandoah vs. Trimble
- Projected
- 25–19
- Final
- 43–20
- Projected winner
- Shenandoah
- Margin error
- 17.5
Sep 18, 2026
Newcomerstown vs. Caldwell
- Projected
- 26–16
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Newcomerstown
- Margin error
- 31.7
Sep 18, 2026
Nelsonville-York vs. Waterford
- Projected
- 29–20
- Final
- 18–12
- Projected winner
- Nelsonville-York
- Margin error
- 2.0
Sep 18, 2026
Mount Gilead vs. Danville
- Projected
- 22–27
- Final
- 13–43
- Projected winner
- Danville
- Margin error
- 25.2
Sep 18, 2026
Loudonville vs. East Knox
- Projected
- 24–20
- Final
- 26–14
- Projected winner
- Loudonville
- Margin error
- 7.7
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15–20 | 14–28 | Hardin Northern | Hardin Northern | 9.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–18 | 42–7 | Antwerp | Antwerp | 33.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–20 | 42–6 | Ada | Ada | 33.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 26–17 | 12–49 | Windham | St. Mary Central Catholic | 46.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 13–23 | 23–7 | Wellsville | Valley Christian | 25.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 25–23 | 28–7 | Toronto | Toronto | 19.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–16 | 34–14 | Lucas | Lucas | 12.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–19 | 28–32 | Leetonia | Mathews | 5.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–17 | 27–28 | Triad | Cedarville | 6.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 18–24 | 0–54 | St. Henry | St. Henry | 48.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–22 | 7–41 | Greeneview | Mechanicsburg | 35.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–20 | 22–0 | Southeastern Local | Fairbanks | 22.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–20 | 0–33 | Dixie | National Trail | 33.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 26–14 | 41–0 | Dayton Christian | Dayton Christian | 28.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16–26 | 17–27 | Riverside | Riverside | 0.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–26 | 21–24 | Minster | Minster | 0.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 18–29 | 14–41 | Marion Local | Marion Local | 16.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–26 | 14–55 | Lima Central Catholic | Lima Central Catholic | 38.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 29–14 | 48–7 | Symmes Valley | Symmes Valley | 25.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 24–15 | 20–15 | Chillicothe Southeastern | Chillicothe Southeastern | 4.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 25–19 | 43–20 | Shenandoah | Shenandoah | 17.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 26–16 | 42–0 | Newcomerstown | Newcomerstown | 31.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 29–20 | 18–12 | Nelsonville-York | Nelsonville-York | 2.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–27 | 13–43 | Danville | Danville | 25.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 24–20 | 26–14 | Loudonville | Loudonville | 7.7 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.