What is OSPR and Why Is It Better?
Understanding Ohio Sports Power Rating - the next generation of sports analytics
OSPR (Ohio Sports Power Rating) is our composite rating system that combines three proven mathematical approaches to create the most accurate and reliable rankings for high school sports in Ohio. Instead of relying on a single method, OSPR synthesizes multiple perspectives to give you a complete picture of team strength.
Reading the School Rating Box
Every school's sport page features a rating box at the top that summarizes the team's OSPR data at a glance. Here's what each element means:
Team Rating
What is OSPR?OSPR Rating
The team's composite power rating on a 0-100 scale. Higher is better. This is the single best number for comparing teams across divisions.
Tier Badge
A quick letter grade (S, A, B, C, D, F) based on the OSPR rating. Each tier has a color so you can spot elite teams instantly. See the tier breakdown below for the full scale.
Division Rank
Where the team sits among all schools in their OHSAA division, ranked by OSPR. This tells you how a team stacks up against similar-sized programs.
Harbin Points (Football only)
The official OHSAA playoff qualification metric. Displayed alongside OSPR on football pages so you can see both the official ranking tool and our power rating side by side.
Momentum
Shows whether a team's rating is trending up (Rising), down (Falling), or holding steady (Stable). Great for spotting teams that are getting hot or cooling off.
Confidence
How confident OSPR is in the rating based on the number and quality of games played. Early-season ratings will show lower confidence; it climbs as more data comes in.
Legacy Ratings
Expand to see the individual component ratings (Elo, CalPreps, FPI) that feed into OSPR. Useful if you want to understand why a team is rated where it is.
Why a Composite System?
No single rating system is perfect. Each method has strengths and weaknesses:
- • ELO tracks momentum well but can be volatile early in the season
- • CalPreps (football only) shows offensive/defensive splits but requires many games to stabilize
- • Colley provides mathematical rigor and time decay but can undervalue recent performance
By combining all three, OSPR cancels out individual weaknesses while amplifying each method's strengths. This creates a more stable, accurate, and predictive rating.
The Three Components of OSPR
1. CalPreps Rating (Football Only)
CalPreps separates offensive and defensive performance to create a balanced rating. This is unique to football because the sport has clearly defined offensive and defensive phases.
Example:
Team Offense: 72.3
Team Defense: 45.8
Combined CalPreps: 63.2
Weight in OSPR: 40% for football, 0% for basketball/baseball/softball
2. Elo Rating
Elo tracks game-by-game momentum and adjusts ratings based on win quality. A victory over a strong opponent boosts your rating more than beating a weak team. Elo is self-correcting and responsive to recent performance.
Example:
Beat team rated 1650: +32 points
Beat team rated 1450: +18 points
Current Elo: 1582
Weight in OSPR: 35% for football, 50% for basketball/baseball/softball
3. Colley Rating
Colley uses linear algebra and matrix calculations to derive ratings from the entire season's results. It includes time decay so recent games matter more, and it's highly resistant to statistical outliers or fluky results.
Advantages:
- • Mathematically rigorous and provably convergent
- • Handles strength of schedule automatically
- • Reduces impact of random chance
- • Time decay gives recency bias (recent games count more)
Weight in OSPR: 25% for football, 50% for basketball/baseball/softball
The OSPR Scale and Tier System
OSPR ratings range from 0 to 100, with teams grouped into tiers based on their rating:
S Tier: Elite (85+)
Championship contenders. These teams dominate their competition and are expected to win most games.
A Tier: Excellent (70-84.9)
Strong playoff teams. Consistently competitive with a solid chance to advance deep.
B Tier: Above Average (55-69.9)
Playoff-caliber teams. Can compete with anyone on a good day.
C Tier: Average (40-54.9)
Middle-of-the-pack teams. Competitive within their division.
D Tier: Below Average (25-39.9)
Rebuilding or developing programs. Can pull upsets but struggle for consistency.
F Tier: Developing (0-24.9)
Programs in early stages of development or facing significant challenges.
How We Use OSPR
OSPR powers our most important features across the site:
- Rankings: All division and regional rankings are sorted by OSPR
- Predictions: Our matchup predictor uses OSPR to forecast game outcomes and spreads
- Momentum Tracking: OSPR momentum shows whether a team is trending up or down
- Matchup Analysis: We break down key advantages using OSPR components
Why OSPR is Superior
More Stable
Composite approach reduces rating volatility and outliers
More Accurate
Three perspectives capture team strength better than one
Better Predictions
Proven track record in backtesting against real results
Sport-Optimized
Different weights for football vs. basketball/baseball/softball
Completely Objective
Pure mathematics - no human bias or polls
Real-Time Updates
Ratings update after every game is recorded
Frequently Asked Questions
How is OSPR different from Harbin Points (for football)?
Harbin Points are the official OHSAA playoff qualification metric - they determine who makes the playoffs. OSPR measures overall team strength and predicts game outcomes. Both are displayed on our football rankings, serving different but complementary purposes.
Why does football use CalPreps but basketball doesn't?
CalPreps requires clearly separated offensive and defensive phases, which football has but basketball doesn't. Basketball is more fluid with players switching between offense and defense constantly, so we rely more heavily on Elo and Colley for basketball, baseball, and softball (50% each vs. 35%/25% for football).
What does "momentum" mean in OSPR?
Momentum tracks whether a team's OSPR is rising or falling based on recent performance. A team on a winning streak against quality opponents will show strong upward momentum, even if their overall rating is still climbing to reflect their true strength.
How many games does it take for OSPR to be accurate?
OSPR begins converging after 3-5 games and becomes highly reliable after 8-10 games. The composite approach means OSPR is more stable early in the season compared to pure Elo systems, which can swing wildly with limited data.
Understanding the Components
Want to dive deeper into the systems that power OSPR?