Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 9, 2026
Stow-Munroe Falls vs. Nordonia
- Projected
- 20–25
- Final
- 14–45
- Projected winner
- Nordonia
- Margin error
- 25.9
Oct 9, 2026
Lakewood St. Edward vs. Football North Inc. (via Clarkson SS)
- Projected
- 24–25
- Final
- 63–46
- Projected winner
- Football North Inc. (via Clarkson SS)
- Margin error
- 17.1
Oct 9, 2026
Solon vs. Medina Highland
- Projected
- 15–29
- Final
- 7–51
- Projected winner
- Medina Highland
- Margin error
- 31.0
Oct 9, 2026
Mentor vs. Shaker Heights
- Projected
- 28–13
- Final
- 42–3
- Projected winner
- Mentor
- Margin error
- 23.9
Oct 9, 2026
Medina vs. North Royalton
- Projected
- 18–20
- Final
- 35–27
- Projected winner
- North Royalton
- Margin error
- 9.9
Oct 9, 2026
Lorain vs. Strongsville
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 6–45
- Projected winner
- Strongsville
- Margin error
- 31.7
Oct 9, 2026
GlenOak vs. Massillon Jackson
- Projected
- 14–27
- Final
- 0–35
- Projected winner
- Massillon Jackson
- Margin error
- 21.8
Oct 9, 2026
Elyria vs. Midview
- Projected
- 15–21
- Final
- 6–40
- Projected winner
- Midview
- Margin error
- 27.9
Oct 9, 2026
Cleveland Heights vs. Euclid
- Projected
- 17–22
- Final
- 12–30
- Projected winner
- Euclid
- Margin error
- 12.0
Oct 9, 2026
Canton McKinley vs. Uniontown Lake
- Projected
- 27–20
- Final
- 34–7
- Projected winner
- Canton McKinley
- Margin error
- 20.0
Oct 9, 2026
Brunswick vs. Painesville Riverside
- Projected
- 24–18
- Final
- 31–50
- Projected winner
- Brunswick
- Margin error
- 25.7
Oct 9, 2026
Berea-Midpark vs. Olmsted Falls
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 38–42
- Projected winner
- Berea-Midpark
- Margin error
- 5.2
Oct 8, 2026
Dunbar vs. Cincinnati Northwest
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 17–32
- Projected winner
- Dunbar
- Margin error
- 17.6
Oct 8, 2026
Rogers vs. Toledo Woodward
- Projected
- 17–16
- Final
- 16–22
- Projected winner
- Rogers
- Margin error
- 6.7
Oct 8, 2026
Cleveland East Tech vs. Cleveland JFK
- Projected
- 16–17
- Final
- 0–36
- Projected winner
- Cleveland JFK
- Margin error
- 34.7
Oct 8, 2026
Mifflin vs. Linden McKinley
- Projected
- 14–26
- Final
- 0–66
- Projected winner
- Linden McKinley
- Margin error
- 54.2
Oct 8, 2026
Columbus Independence vs. Columbus West
- Projected
- 13–29
- Final
- 16–34
- Projected winner
- Columbus West
- Margin error
- 2.5
Oct 8, 2026
Westlake vs. Rocky River
- Projected
- 17–27
- Final
- 19–48
- Projected winner
- Rocky River
- Margin error
- 18.9
Oct 8, 2026
Valley Forge vs. Bay
- Projected
- 16–20
- Final
- 13–25
- Projected winner
- Bay
- Margin error
- 8.3
Oct 8, 2026
North Olmsted vs. Medina Buckeye
- Projected
- 23–19
- Final
- 17–20
- Projected winner
- North Olmsted
- Margin error
- 6.5
Oct 8, 2026
Lakewood vs. Normandy
- Projected
- 28–9
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Lakewood
- Margin error
- 23.3
Oct 8, 2026
Bowsher vs. Lima Senior
- Projected
- 17–26
- Final
- 7–48
- Projected winner
- Lima Senior
- Margin error
- 31.6
Oct 8, 2026
Madison vs. Eastlake North
- Projected
- 18–28
- Final
- 7–37
- Projected winner
- Eastlake North
- Margin error
- 20.1
Oct 8, 2026
Garfield Heights vs. Warrensville Heights
- Projected
- 27–16
- Final
- 44–19
- Projected winner
- Garfield Heights
- Margin error
- 14.8
Oct 8, 2026
John Hay vs. Rhodes
- Projected
- 18–20
- Final
- 6–16
- Projected winner
- Rhodes
- Margin error
- 7.8
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20–25 | 14–45 | Nordonia | Nordonia | 25.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 24–25 | 63–46 | Football North Inc. (via Clarkson SS) | Lakewood St. Edward | 17.1 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 15–29 | 7–51 | Medina Highland | Medina Highland | 31.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 28–13 | 42–3 | Mentor | Mentor | 23.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 18–20 | 35–27 | North Royalton | Medina | 9.9 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 17–24 | 6–45 | Strongsville | Strongsville | 31.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 14–27 | 0–35 | Massillon Jackson | Massillon Jackson | 21.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 15–21 | 6–40 | Midview | Midview | 27.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 17–22 | 12–30 | Euclid | Euclid | 12.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 27–20 | 34–7 | Canton McKinley | Canton McKinley | 20.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 24–18 | 31–50 | Brunswick | Painesville Riverside | 25.7 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 23–22 | 38–42 | Berea-Midpark | Olmsted Falls | 5.2 | Missed | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 23–21 | 17–32 | Dunbar | Cincinnati Northwest | 17.6 | Missed | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 17–16 | 16–22 | Rogers | Toledo Woodward | 6.7 | Missed | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 16–17 | 0–36 | Cleveland JFK | Cleveland JFK | 34.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 14–26 | 0–66 | Linden McKinley | Linden McKinley | 54.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 13–29 | 16–34 | Columbus West | Columbus West | 2.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 17–27 | 19–48 | Rocky River | Rocky River | 18.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 16–20 | 13–25 | Bay | Bay | 8.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 23–19 | 17–20 | North Olmsted | Medina Buckeye | 6.5 | Missed | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 28–9 | 42–0 | Lakewood | Lakewood | 23.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 17–26 | 7–48 | Lima Senior | Lima Senior | 31.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 18–28 | 7–37 | Eastlake North | Eastlake North | 20.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 27–16 | 44–19 | Garfield Heights | Garfield Heights | 14.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 18–20 | 6–16 | Rhodes | Rhodes | 7.8 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
