Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 9, 2026
Fairborn vs. Xenia
- Projected
- 25–19
- Final
- 30–44
- Projected winner
- Fairborn
- Margin error
- 20.8
Oct 9, 2026
Trenton Edgewood vs. Valley View
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 10–28
- Projected winner
- Valley View
- Margin error
- 15.0
Oct 9, 2026
Worthington Kilbourne vs. KIPP Columbus
- Projected
- 30–13
- Final
- 42–6
- Projected winner
- Worthington Kilbourne
- Margin error
- 18.8
Oct 9, 2026
Wooster vs. Mansfield Senior
- Projected
- 20–17
- Final
- 25–13
- Projected winner
- Wooster
- Margin error
- 8.9
Oct 9, 2026
Whitehall-Yearling vs. Franklin Heights
- Projected
- 29–16
- Final
- 42–3
- Projected winner
- Whitehall-Yearling
- Margin error
- 25.7
Oct 9, 2026
Watkins Memorial vs. Granville
- Projected
- 18–26
- Final
- 7–41
- Projected winner
- Granville
- Margin error
- 25.8
Oct 9, 2026
Massillon Washington vs. Cornerstone Christian
- Projected
- 24–25
- Final
- 21–35
- Projected winner
- Cornerstone Christian
- Margin error
- 13.5
Oct 9, 2026
Walnut Ridge vs. Briggs
- Projected
- 13–26
- Final
- 48–14
- Projected winner
- Briggs
- Margin error
- 47.0
Oct 9, 2026
St. Charles vs. Columbus DeSales
- Projected
- 25–23
- Final
- 20–28
- Projected winner
- St. Charles
- Margin error
- 9.8
Oct 9, 2026
Northland vs. Whetstone
- Projected
- 20–15
- Final
- 48–7
- Projected winner
- Northland
- Margin error
- 35.5
Oct 9, 2026
Mount Vernon vs. Zanesville
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 35–38
- Projected winner
- Zanesville
- Margin error
- 4.0
Oct 9, 2026
Marion Harding vs. Marion Pleasant
- Projected
- 19–21
- Final
- 28–14
- Projected winner
- Marion Pleasant
- Margin error
- 15.9
Oct 9, 2026
Licking Heights vs. Licking Valley
- Projected
- 16–28
- Final
- 20–56
- Projected winner
- Licking Valley
- Margin error
- 23.7
Oct 9, 2026
North Canton Hoover vs. Massillon Perry
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 10–35
- Projected winner
- North Canton Hoover
- Margin error
- 26.8
Oct 9, 2026
Uniontown Green vs. Louisville
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 14–30
- Projected winner
- Louisville
- Margin error
- 15.4
Oct 9, 2026
Canal Winchester vs. Logan
- Projected
- 24–16
- Final
- 70–28
- Projected winner
- Canal Winchester
- Margin error
- 34.3
Oct 9, 2026
Waite vs. Scott
- Projected
- 21–15
- Final
- 17–6
- Projected winner
- Waite
- Margin error
- 4.9
Oct 9, 2026
Toledo St. Francis vs. Lumen Christi
- Projected
- 15–28
- Final
- 28–43
- Projected winner
- Lumen Christi
- Margin error
- 1.8
Oct 9, 2026
Toledo St. John's vs. Warren De La Salle
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 24–27
- Projected winner
- Warren De La Salle
- Margin error
- 0.8
Oct 9, 2026
Fremont Ross vs. Holland Springfield
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 56–14
- Projected winner
- Fremont Ross
- Margin error
- 40.9
Oct 9, 2026
Toledo Central Catholic vs. Birmingham Brother Rice
- Projected
- 28–20
- Final
- 49–27
- Projected winner
- Toledo Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 14.7
Oct 9, 2026
Brecksville vs. Aurora
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 21–27
- Projected winner
- Aurora
- Margin error
- 3.8
Oct 9, 2026
Barberton vs. Revere
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 7–28
- Projected winner
- Revere
- Margin error
- 18.7
Oct 9, 2026
Avon Lake vs. North Ridgeville
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 35–21
- Projected winner
- North Ridgeville
- Margin error
- 17.1
Oct 9, 2026
Avon vs. Amherst Steele
- Projected
- 27–17
- Final
- 45–7
- Projected winner
- Avon
- Margin error
- 27.5
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | 25–19 | 30–44 | Fairborn | Xenia | 20.8 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 21–24 | 10–28 | Valley View | Valley View | 15.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 30–13 | 42–6 | Worthington Kilbourne | Worthington Kilbourne | 18.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20–17 | 25–13 | Wooster | Wooster | 8.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 29–16 | 42–3 | Whitehall-Yearling | Whitehall-Yearling | 25.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 18–26 | 7–41 | Granville | Granville | 25.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 24–25 | 21–35 | Cornerstone Christian | Cornerstone Christian | 13.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 13–26 | 48–14 | Briggs | Walnut Ridge | 47.0 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 25–23 | 20–28 | St. Charles | Columbus DeSales | 9.8 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20–15 | 48–7 | Northland | Northland | 35.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 18–25 | 35–38 | Zanesville | Zanesville | 4.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 19–21 | 28–14 | Marion Pleasant | Marion Harding | 15.9 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 16–28 | 20–56 | Licking Valley | Licking Valley | 23.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 22–20 | 10–35 | North Canton Hoover | Massillon Perry | 26.8 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 21–22 | 14–30 | Louisville | Louisville | 15.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 24–16 | 70–28 | Canal Winchester | Canal Winchester | 34.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 21–15 | 17–6 | Waite | Waite | 4.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 15–28 | 28–43 | Lumen Christi | Lumen Christi | 1.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20–24 | 24–27 | Warren De La Salle | Warren De La Salle | 0.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 22–20 | 56–14 | Fremont Ross | Fremont Ross | 40.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 28–20 | 49–27 | Toledo Central Catholic | Toledo Central Catholic | 14.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20–22 | 21–27 | Aurora | Aurora | 3.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 19–22 | 7–28 | Revere | Revere | 18.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 19–22 | 35–21 | North Ridgeville | Avon Lake | 17.1 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 27–17 | 45–7 | Avon | Avon | 27.5 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.