Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 2, 2026
Reedsville Eastern vs. Federal Hocking
- Projected
- 24–14
- Final
- 48–0
- Projected winner
- Reedsville Eastern
- Margin error
- 38.9
Oct 2, 2026
Conotton Valley vs. Frontier
- Projected
- 24–25
- Final
- 46–19
- Projected winner
- Frontier
- Margin error
- 29.0
Oct 2, 2026
Bridgeport vs. Cameron
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 6–60
- Projected winner
- Cameron
- Margin error
- 51.1
Oct 2, 2026
Bishop Rosecrans vs. Caldwell
- Projected
- 15–18
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- Caldwell
- Margin error
- 39.5
Oct 2, 2026
Berne Union vs. Grove City Christian
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 19–16
- Projected winner
- Berne Union
- Margin error
- 2.3
Oct 2, 2026
Upper Scioto Valley vs. Ridgedale
- Projected
- 23–15
- Final
- 20–14
- Projected winner
- Upper Scioto Valley
- Margin error
- 2.2
Oct 2, 2026
Spencerville vs. Fort Loramie
- Projected
- 14–25
- Final
- 0–53
- Projected winner
- Fort Loramie
- Margin error
- 42.5
Oct 2, 2026
North Baltimore vs. Waynesfield-Goshen
- Projected
- 28–16
- Final
- 52–56
- Projected winner
- North Baltimore
- Margin error
- 15.1
Oct 2, 2026
McComb vs. Pandora-Gilboa
- Projected
- 26–21
- Final
- 34–7
- Projected winner
- McComb
- Margin error
- 21.9
Oct 2, 2026
Hilltop vs. Summerfield
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 23–14
- Projected winner
- Hilltop
- Margin error
- 7.8
Oct 2, 2026
Hardin Northern vs. Lima Perry
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 14–24
- Projected winner
- Hardin Northern
- Margin error
- 11.9
Oct 2, 2026
Edon vs. Whiteford
- Projected
- 27–24
- Final
- 29–50
- Projected winner
- Edon
- Margin error
- 24.6
Oct 2, 2026
Tiffin Calvert vs. Hopewell-Loudon
- Projected
- 14–29
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- Hopewell-Loudon
- Margin error
- 27.3
Oct 2, 2026
Ayersville vs. Edgerton
- Projected
- 17–18
- Final
- 48–14
- Projected winner
- Edgerton
- Margin error
- 34.4
Oct 2, 2026
Arcadia vs. Leipsic
- Projected
- 22–25
- Final
- 0–35
- Projected winner
- Leipsic
- Margin error
- 31.8
Oct 2, 2026
Windham vs. Fremont St. Joseph
- Projected
- 31–13
- Final
- 34–71
- Projected winner
- Windham
- Margin error
- 55.4
Oct 2, 2026
Sebring McKinley vs. St. Mary Central Catholic
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 7–42
- Projected winner
- Sebring McKinley
- Margin error
- 35.2
Oct 2, 2026
Mapleton vs. Monroeville
- Projected
- 22–19
- Final
- 14–42
- Projected winner
- Mapleton
- Margin error
- 31.8
Oct 2, 2026
Malvern vs. Tuscarawas Central Catholic
- Projected
- 17–20
- Final
- 28–21
- Projected winner
- Tuscarawas Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 10.6
Oct 2, 2026
David Anderson vs. Wellsville
- Projected
- 20–17
- Final
- 41–7
- Projected winner
- David Anderson
- Margin error
- 30.7
Oct 2, 2026
Crestline vs. Toledo Christian
- Projected
- 17–21
- Final
- 7–34
- Projected winner
- Toledo Christian
- Margin error
- 22.6
Oct 2, 2026
Chalker vs. Danbury
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 52–28
- Projected winner
- Chalker
- Margin error
- 23.9
Oct 2, 2026
Buckeye Central vs. Lucas
- Projected
- 15–22
- Final
- 0–49
- Projected winner
- Lucas
- Margin error
- 42.3
Oct 2, 2026
Parkway vs. Delphos St. John's
- Projected
- 17–18
- Final
- 23–7
- Projected winner
- Delphos St. John's
- Margin error
- 16.4
Oct 2, 2026
National Trail vs. Tri-County North
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 0–34
- Projected winner
- Tri-County North
- Margin error
- 28.4
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–14 | 48–0 | Reedsville Eastern | Reedsville Eastern | 38.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–25 | 46–19 | Frontier | Conotton Valley | 29.0 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–23 | 6–60 | Cameron | Cameron | 51.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 15–18 | 0–42 | Caldwell | Caldwell | 39.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 21–20 | 19–16 | Berne Union | Berne Union | 2.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–15 | 20–14 | Upper Scioto Valley | Upper Scioto Valley | 2.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 14–25 | 0–53 | Fort Loramie | Fort Loramie | 42.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 28–16 | 52–56 | North Baltimore | Waynesfield-Goshen | 15.1 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 26–21 | 34–7 | McComb | McComb | 21.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–19 | 23–14 | Hilltop | Hilltop | 7.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–19 | 14–24 | Hardin Northern | Lima Perry | 11.9 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 27–24 | 29–50 | Edon | Whiteford | 24.6 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 14–29 | 0–42 | Hopewell-Loudon | Hopewell-Loudon | 27.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 17–18 | 48–14 | Edgerton | Ayersville | 34.4 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–25 | 0–35 | Leipsic | Leipsic | 31.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 31–13 | 34–71 | Windham | Fremont St. Joseph | 55.4 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–19 | 7–42 | Sebring McKinley | St. Mary Central Catholic | 35.2 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–19 | 14–42 | Mapleton | Monroeville | 31.8 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 17–20 | 28–21 | Tuscarawas Central Catholic | Malvern | 10.6 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–17 | 41–7 | David Anderson | David Anderson | 30.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 17–21 | 7–34 | Toledo Christian | Toledo Christian | 22.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–23 | 52–28 | Chalker | Chalker | 23.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 15–22 | 0–49 | Lucas | Lucas | 42.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 17–18 | 23–7 | Delphos St. John's | Parkway | 16.4 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–25 | 0–34 | Tri-County North | Tri-County North | 28.4 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.