Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 2, 2026
Miami East vs. Sidney Lehman
- Projected
- 26–15
- Final
- 35–0
- Projected winner
- Miami East
- Margin error
- 23.2
Oct 2, 2026
Delphos Jefferson vs. Convoy Crestview
- Projected
- 23–16
- Final
- 7–12
- Projected winner
- Delphos Jefferson
- Margin error
- 12.1
Oct 2, 2026
Gamble Montessori vs. St. Bernard-Elmwood Place
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 7–30
- Projected winner
- St. Bernard-Elmwood Place
- Margin error
- 22.9
Oct 2, 2026
Fort Recovery vs. Marion Local
- Projected
- 18–28
- Final
- 0–33
- Projected winner
- Marion Local
- Margin error
- 23.5
Oct 2, 2026
Fairbanks vs. Mechanicsburg
- Projected
- 19–26
- Final
- 15–49
- Projected winner
- Mechanicsburg
- Margin error
- 27.1
Oct 2, 2026
Dixie vs. Tri-Village
- Projected
- 15–28
- Final
- 7–58
- Projected winner
- Tri-Village
- Margin error
- 38.1
Oct 2, 2026
Dayton Christian vs. Cincinnati College Prep
- Projected
- 19–26
- Final
- 21–26
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati College Prep
- Margin error
- 1.5
Oct 2, 2026
Cincinnati Country Day vs. Miami Valley CA
- Projected
- 19–21
- Final
- 28–27
- Projected winner
- Miami Valley CA
- Margin error
- 3.1
Oct 2, 2026
Arcanum vs. Twin Valley South
- Projected
- 25–16
- Final
- 54–0
- Projected winner
- Arcanum
- Margin error
- 44.5
Oct 2, 2026
Anna vs. Minster
- Projected
- 20–26
- Final
- 14–13
- Projected winner
- Minster
- Margin error
- 7.2
Oct 2, 2026
Adena vs. Chillicothe Huntington
- Projected
- 16–27
- Final
- 12–13
- Projected winner
- Chillicothe Huntington
- Margin error
- 10.1
Oct 2, 2026
West Jefferson vs. Triad
- Projected
- 26–16
- Final
- 56–14
- Projected winner
- West Jefferson
- Margin error
- 31.5
Oct 2, 2026
Symmes Valley vs. Beaver Eastern
- Projected
- 28–21
- Final
- 35–7
- Projected winner
- Symmes Valley
- Margin error
- 21.6
Oct 2, 2026
Shenandoah vs. Monroe Central
- Projected
- 25–19
- Final
- 0–34
- Projected winner
- Shenandoah
- Margin error
- 40.9
Oct 2, 2026
Newcomerstown vs. Strasburg-Franklin
- Projected
- 25–24
- Final
- 52–14
- Projected winner
- Newcomerstown
- Margin error
- 36.1
Oct 2, 2026
Mount Gilead vs. East Knox
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 27–21
- Projected winner
- Mount Gilead
- Margin error
- 5.9
Oct 2, 2026
Loudonville vs. Danville
- Projected
- 18–29
- Final
- 0–55
- Projected winner
- Danville
- Margin error
- 44.0
Oct 2, 2026
Grandview Heights vs. Worthington Christian
- Projected
- 19–23
- Final
- 14–40
- Projected winner
- Worthington Christian
- Margin error
- 22.5
Oct 2, 2026
Fredericktown vs. Northmor
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 28–18
- Projected winner
- Northmor
- Margin error
- 10.3
Oct 2, 2026
Marion Elgin vs. Cory-Rawson
- Projected
- 29–12
- Final
- 35–10
- Projected winner
- Marion Elgin
- Margin error
- 8.8
Oct 2, 2026
Coal Grove vs. KIPP Columbus
- Projected
- 19–18
- Final
- 0–33
- Projected winner
- Coal Grove
- Margin error
- 34.8
Oct 2, 2026
Centerburg vs. Cardington-Lincoln
- Projected
- 22–15
- Final
- 42–7
- Projected winner
- Centerburg
- Margin error
- 27.4
Oct 2, 2026
Belpre vs. Trimble
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 15–32
- Projected winner
- Belpre
- Margin error
- 20.0
Oct 2, 2026
Barnesville vs. Fort Frye
- Projected
- 24–26
- Final
- 34–7
- Projected winner
- Fort Frye
- Margin error
- 28.8
Oct 2, 2026
Western Reserve vs. South Central
- Projected
- 28–15
- Final
- 39–8
- Projected winner
- Western Reserve
- Margin error
- 18.1
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | 26–15 | 35–0 | Miami East | Miami East | 23.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–16 | 7–12 | Delphos Jefferson | Convoy Crestview | 12.1 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–24 | 7–30 | St. Bernard-Elmwood Place | St. Bernard-Elmwood Place | 22.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 18–28 | 0–33 | Marion Local | Marion Local | 23.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–26 | 15–49 | Mechanicsburg | Mechanicsburg | 27.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 15–28 | 7–58 | Tri-Village | Tri-Village | 38.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–26 | 21–26 | Cincinnati College Prep | Cincinnati College Prep | 1.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–21 | 28–27 | Miami Valley CA | Cincinnati Country Day | 3.1 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 25–16 | 54–0 | Arcanum | Arcanum | 44.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–26 | 14–13 | Minster | Anna | 7.2 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 16–27 | 12–13 | Chillicothe Huntington | Chillicothe Huntington | 10.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 26–16 | 56–14 | West Jefferson | West Jefferson | 31.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 28–21 | 35–7 | Symmes Valley | Symmes Valley | 21.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 25–19 | 0–34 | Shenandoah | Monroe Central | 40.9 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 25–24 | 52–14 | Newcomerstown | Newcomerstown | 36.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–23 | 27–21 | Mount Gilead | Mount Gilead | 5.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 18–29 | 0–55 | Danville | Danville | 44.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–23 | 14–40 | Worthington Christian | Worthington Christian | 22.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–20 | 28–18 | Northmor | Fredericktown | 10.3 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 29–12 | 35–10 | Marion Elgin | Marion Elgin | 8.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–18 | 0–33 | Coal Grove | KIPP Columbus | 34.8 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–15 | 42–7 | Centerburg | Centerburg | 27.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–20 | 15–32 | Belpre | Trimble | 20.0 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–26 | 34–7 | Fort Frye | Barnesville | 28.8 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 28–15 | 39–8 | Western Reserve | Western Reserve | 18.1 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.