Games evaluated
707
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Aug 29, 2026
Accuracy calculated Aug 31, 2026 9:59 AM EDT
Performance summary
707 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
59.7%
422 correct
Average margin error
22.6
Lower is better
Average score error
13.1
Per-team points
Brier score
0.236
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
12.4%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 707
- Winner accuracy
- 59.7%
- Margin error
- 22.6
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 1 | 8.5% | 0.0% | -8.5 | 0.007 |
| 10–19% | 32 | 16.7% | 18.8% | +2.0 | 0.160 |
| 20–29% | 81 | 25.9% | 34.6% | +8.6 | 0.234 |
| 30–39% | 117 | 35.2% | 40.2% | +5.0 | 0.237 |
| 40–49% | 167 | 45.5% | 48.5% | +3.0 | 0.250 |
| 50–59% | 128 | 54.6% | 50.8% | -3.8 | 0.256 |
| 60–69% | 96 | 65.2% | 67.7% | +2.6 | 0.217 |
| 70–79% | 73 | 74.6% | 68.5% | -6.1 | 0.218 |
| 80–89% | 12 | 83.1% | 58.3% | -24.7 | 0.301 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 252 | 55.6% | 22.8 points |
| Medium | 21 | 76.2% | 21.5 points |
| Low | 434 | 61.3% | 22.5 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 706 | 59.6% | 22.6 points |
| Close Game | 535 | 56.8% | 22.8 points |
| Upset Possible | 505 | 56.0% | 22.4 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Anna vs. Spencerville | 19–22 | 60–0 | 63.2 points |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Warrensville Heights vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–20 | 57–0 | 59.2 points |
| Aug 28, 2026 | West Clermont vs. Anderson | 24–17 | 19–70 | 58.8 points |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Ross vs. Thurgood Marshall | 19–20 | 57–0 | 57.4 points |
| Aug 29, 2026 | John Marshall vs. Rocky River | 17–24 | 0–63 | 56.8 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 28, 2026
Milford vs. Walnut Hills
- Projected
- 17–21
- Final
- 47–7
- Projected winner
- Walnut Hills
- Margin error
- 44.6
Aug 28, 2026
Lebanon vs. Loveland
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 42–7
- Projected winner
- Lebanon
- Margin error
- 28.2
Aug 28, 2026
Lakota East vs. Lakota West
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 18–48
- Projected winner
- Lakota East
- Margin error
- 32.1
Aug 28, 2026
Fairfield vs. Oak Hills
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 0–21
- Projected winner
- Oak Hills
- Margin error
- 20.1
Aug 28, 2026
Elder vs. Covington Catholic
- Projected
- 22–26
- Final
- 56–20
- Projected winner
- Covington Catholic
- Margin error
- 39.1
Aug 28, 2026
Colerain vs. Hamilton
- Projected
- 22–18
- Final
- 41–7
- Projected winner
- Colerain
- Margin error
- 30.3
Aug 28, 2026
Westerville Central vs. Westerville South
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 17–0
- Projected winner
- Westerville South
- Margin error
- 18.4
Aug 28, 2026
Thomas Worthington vs. Worthington Kilbourne
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 20–52
- Projected winner
- Worthington Kilbourne
- Margin error
- 29.6
Aug 28, 2026
Upper Arlington vs. Olentangy Berlin
- Projected
- 24–20
- Final
- 24–0
- Projected winner
- Upper Arlington
- Margin error
- 19.8
Aug 28, 2026
Pickerington Central vs. Bishop Watterson
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 0–28
- Projected winner
- Bishop Watterson
- Margin error
- 20.1
Aug 28, 2026
Olentangy Orange vs. Westerville North
- Projected
- 17–26
- Final
- 33–0
- Projected winner
- Westerville North
- Margin error
- 41.9
Aug 28, 2026
Newark vs. Mount Vernon
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 34–14
- Projected winner
- Newark
- Margin error
- 18.7
Aug 28, 2026
New Albany vs. Canal Winchester
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 28–35
- Projected winner
- New Albany
- Margin error
- 8.9
Aug 28, 2026
Hilliard Davidson vs. Wadsworth
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 8–33
- Projected winner
- Hilliard Davidson
- Margin error
- 26.8
Aug 28, 2026
Hilliard Bradley vs. Hilliard Darby
- Projected
- 19–23
- Final
- 25–19
- Projected winner
- Hilliard Darby
- Margin error
- 10.1
Aug 28, 2026
Groveport-Madison vs. Moeller
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 7–45
- Projected winner
- Moeller
- Margin error
- 37.7
Aug 28, 2026
Grove City vs. Westland
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 48–47
- Projected winner
- Westland
- Margin error
- 4.4
Aug 28, 2026
Central Crossing vs. Columbus West
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 3–12
- Projected winner
- Columbus West
- Margin error
- 7.9
Aug 28, 2026
Whitmer vs. Detroit King
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 7–27
- Projected winner
- Whitmer
- Margin error
- 20.9
Aug 28, 2026
Wayne vs. St. Xavier
- Projected
- 23–18
- Final
- 7–35
- Projected winner
- Wayne
- Margin error
- 33.4
Aug 28, 2026
Start vs. Clyde
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 6–33
- Projected winner
- Start
- Margin error
- 33.5
Aug 28, 2026
Springfield vs. Walsh Jesuit
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 0–1
- Projected winner
- Walsh Jesuit
- Margin error
- 2.3
Aug 28, 2026
Springboro vs. Gahanna Lincoln
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 7–24
- Projected winner
- Gahanna Lincoln
- Margin error
- 14.9
Aug 28, 2026
Perrysburg vs. Olentangy
- Projected
- 25–17
- Final
- 45–7
- Projected winner
- Perrysburg
- Margin error
- 29.5
Aug 28, 2026
Olentangy Liberty vs. Glenville
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 13–34
- Projected winner
- Olentangy Liberty
- Margin error
- 21.6
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–21 | 47–7 | Walnut Hills | Milford | 44.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–17 | 42–7 | Lebanon | Lebanon | 28.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–21 | 18–48 | Lakota East | Lakota West | 32.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–22 | 0–21 | Oak Hills | Oak Hills | 20.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–26 | 56–20 | Covington Catholic | Elder | 39.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–18 | 41–7 | Colerain | Colerain | 30.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–23 | 17–0 | Westerville South | Westerville Central | 18.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–23 | 20–52 | Worthington Kilbourne | Worthington Kilbourne | 29.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–20 | 24–0 | Upper Arlington | Upper Arlington | 19.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–25 | 0–28 | Bishop Watterson | Bishop Watterson | 20.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–26 | 33–0 | Westerville North | Olentangy Orange | 41.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–20 | 34–14 | Newark | Newark | 18.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–21 | 28–35 | New Albany | Canal Winchester | 8.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–21 | 8–33 | Hilliard Davidson | Wadsworth | 26.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–23 | 25–19 | Hilliard Darby | Hilliard Bradley | 10.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–22 | 7–45 | Moeller | Moeller | 37.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–23 | 48–47 | Westland | Grove City | 4.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–20 | 3–12 | Columbus West | Columbus West | 7.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–23 | 7–27 | Whitmer | Detroit King | 20.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–18 | 7–35 | Wayne | St. Xavier | 33.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–17 | 6–33 | Start | Clyde | 33.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–24 | 0–1 | Walsh Jesuit | Walsh Jesuit | 2.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–24 | 7–24 | Gahanna Lincoln | Gahanna Lincoln | 14.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–17 | 45–7 | Perrysburg | Perrysburg | 29.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–21 | 13–34 | Olentangy Liberty | Glenville | 21.6 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
