Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 8, 2026
Boardman vs. Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary
- Projected
- 16–19
- Final
- 48–21
- Projected winner
- Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary
- Margin error
- 29.5
Oct 8, 2026
Bedford vs. Maple Heights
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 0–40
- Projected winner
- Maple Heights
- Margin error
- 31.9
Oct 3, 2026
Kennedy Catholic vs. Stryker
- Projected
- 19–23
- Final
- 16–64
- Projected winner
- Stryker
- Margin error
- 44.7
Oct 3, 2026
St. Francis vs. Canisius
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 32–29
- Projected winner
- St. Francis
- Margin error
- 2.1
Oct 3, 2026
Steubenville Catholic Central vs. Salineville Southern
- Projected
- 20–16
- Final
- 39–6
- Projected winner
- Steubenville Catholic Central
- Margin error
- 28.5
Oct 3, 2026
Cleveland Central Catholic vs. Gilmour Academy
- Projected
- 27–18
- Final
- 42–59
- Projected winner
- Cleveland Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 26.5
Oct 3, 2026
Toledo Central Catholic vs. Detroit Catholic Central
- Projected
- 24–27
- Final
- 12–31
- Projected winner
- Detroit Catholic Central
- Margin error
- 15.9
Oct 3, 2026
Akron Garfield vs. Akron North
- Projected
- 16–17
- Final
- 49–0
- Projected winner
- Akron North
- Margin error
- 49.1
Oct 3, 2026
Ellet vs. Akron East
- Projected
- 16–25
- Final
- 7–38
- Projected winner
- Akron East
- Margin error
- 21.9
Oct 2, 2026
Oak Glen vs. Saint Marys
- Projected
- 20–28
- Final
- 24–0
- Projected winner
- Saint Marys
- Margin error
- 31.6
Oct 2, 2026
U of D Jesuit vs. Lumen Christi
- Projected
- 15–25
- Final
- 10–45
- Projected winner
- Lumen Christi
- Margin error
- 24.5
Oct 2, 2026
Warren De La Salle vs. Orchard Lake St. Mary
- Projected
- 23–26
- Final
- 6–42
- Projected winner
- Orchard Lake St. Mary
- Margin error
- 33.1
Oct 2, 2026
Dixie Heights vs. Cooper
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 13–25
- Projected winner
- Cooper
- Margin error
- 9.6
Oct 2, 2026
Covington Catholic vs. Highlands
- Projected
- 26–24
- Final
- 20–38
- Projected winner
- Covington Catholic
- Margin error
- 19.8
Oct 2, 2026
Erie vs. Hickory
- Projected
- 16–29
- Final
- 15–36
- Projected winner
- Hickory
- Margin error
- 8.5
Oct 2, 2026
McDowell vs. Cathedral Prep
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 37–13
- Projected winner
- Cathedral Prep
- Margin error
- 28.9
Oct 2, 2026
Carrick vs. Perry Traditional Academy
- Projected
- 20–15
- Final
- 24–0
- Projected winner
- Carrick
- Margin error
- 18.9
Oct 2, 2026
North Central vs. Erie Mason
- Projected
- 22–13
- Final
- 51–8
- Projected winner
- North Central
- Margin error
- 34.7
Oct 2, 2026
New Bremen vs. St. Henry
- Projected
- 23–25
- Final
- 16–21
- Projected winner
- St. Henry
- Margin error
- 3.5
Oct 2, 2026
Franklin Furnace Green vs. Portsmouth Notre Dame
- Projected
- 20–17
- Final
- 7–42
- Projected winner
- Franklin Furnace Green
- Margin error
- 37.6
Oct 2, 2026
Ansonia vs. Bradford
- Projected
- 28–15
- Final
- 66–14
- Projected winner
- Ansonia
- Margin error
- 38.6
Oct 2, 2026
Racine Southern vs. Waterford
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 0–57
- Projected winner
- Waterford
- Margin error
- 55.7
Oct 2, 2026
River vs. Shadyside
- Projected
- 26–25
- Final
- 22–13
- Projected winner
- River
- Margin error
- 7.5
Oct 2, 2026
Fisher Catholic vs. Millersport
- Projected
- 24–15
- Final
- 34–6
- Projected winner
- Fisher Catholic
- Margin error
- 18.8
Oct 2, 2026
Fairfield Christian vs. Miller
- Projected
- 17–18
- Final
- 10–20
- Projected winner
- Miller
- Margin error
- 9.3
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | 16–19 | 48–21 | Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary | Boardman | 29.5 | Missed | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 17–25 | 0–40 | Maple Heights | Maple Heights | 31.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | 19–23 | 16–64 | Stryker | Stryker | 44.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | 24–23 | 32–29 | St. Francis | St. Francis | 2.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | 20–16 | 39–6 | Steubenville Catholic Central | Steubenville Catholic Central | 28.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | 27–18 | 42–59 | Cleveland Central Catholic | Gilmour Academy | 26.5 | Missed | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | 24–27 | 12–31 | Detroit Catholic Central | Detroit Catholic Central | 15.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | 16–17 | 49–0 | Akron North | Akron Garfield | 49.1 | Missed | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | 16–25 | 7–38 | Akron East | Akron East | 21.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–28 | 24–0 | Saint Marys | Oak Glen | 31.6 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 15–25 | 10–45 | Lumen Christi | Lumen Christi | 24.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–26 | 6–42 | Orchard Lake St. Mary | Orchard Lake St. Mary | 33.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 21–23 | 13–25 | Cooper | Cooper | 9.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 26–24 | 20–38 | Covington Catholic | Highlands | 19.8 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 16–29 | 15–36 | Hickory | Hickory | 8.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 18–23 | 37–13 | Cathedral Prep | McDowell | 28.9 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–15 | 24–0 | Carrick | Carrick | 18.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–13 | 51–8 | North Central | North Central | 34.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–25 | 16–21 | St. Henry | St. Henry | 3.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–17 | 7–42 | Franklin Furnace Green | Portsmouth Notre Dame | 37.6 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 28–15 | 66–14 | Ansonia | Ansonia | 38.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–23 | 0–57 | Waterford | Waterford | 55.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 26–25 | 22–13 | River | River | 7.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–15 | 34–6 | Fisher Catholic | Fisher Catholic | 18.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 17–18 | 10–20 | Miller | Miller | 9.3 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
