Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 9, 2026
Wilmington vs. Batavia
- Projected
- 26–14
- Final
- 21–15
- Projected winner
- Wilmington
- Margin error
- 5.6
Oct 9, 2026
Western Brown vs. New Richmond
- Projected
- 21–19
- Final
- 35–40
- Projected winner
- Western Brown
- Margin error
- 7.0
Oct 9, 2026
Tri-Valley vs. River View
- Projected
- 27–12
- Final
- 62–0
- Projected winner
- Tri-Valley
- Margin error
- 46.8
Oct 9, 2026
Sheridan vs. Philo
- Projected
- 25–23
- Final
- 28–8
- Projected winner
- Sheridan
- Margin error
- 17.7
Oct 9, 2026
Columbus South vs. Africentric
- Projected
- 27–15
- Final
- 13–6
- Projected winner
- Columbus South
- Margin error
- 6.0
Oct 9, 2026
Marietta vs. Fort Frye
- Projected
- 15–28
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- Fort Frye
- Margin error
- 29.0
Oct 9, 2026
Miami Trace vs. Hillsboro
- Projected
- 25–18
- Final
- 55–15
- Projected winner
- Miami Trace
- Margin error
- 33.2
Oct 9, 2026
Jonathan Alder vs. London
- Projected
- 27–23
- Final
- 7–34
- Projected winner
- Jonathan Alder
- Margin error
- 30.6
Oct 9, 2026
Jackson vs. McClain
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 32–12
- Projected winner
- McClain
- Margin error
- 20.4
Oct 9, 2026
Hamilton Township vs. Bloom-Carroll
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 7–0
- Projected winner
- Hamilton Township
- Margin error
- 5.3
Oct 9, 2026
Chillicothe vs. Washington CH
- Projected
- 25–22
- Final
- 51–21
- Projected winner
- Chillicothe
- Margin error
- 26.7
Oct 9, 2026
Centennial vs. Columbus East
- Projected
- 12–31
- Final
- 0–61
- Projected winner
- Columbus East
- Margin error
- 43.0
Oct 9, 2026
Buckeye Valley vs. Columbus Academy
- Projected
- 20–25
- Final
- 17–39
- Projected winner
- Columbus Academy
- Margin error
- 17.5
Oct 9, 2026
Bishop Hartley vs. Bishop Watterson
- Projected
- 16–27
- Final
- 7–63
- Projected winner
- Bishop Watterson
- Margin error
- 45.5
Oct 9, 2026
Beechcroft vs. Toledo Christian
- Projected
- 23–18
- Final
- 32–14
- Projected winner
- Beechcroft
- Margin error
- 12.5
Oct 9, 2026
Athens vs. Wellston
- Projected
- 26–17
- Final
- 60–8
- Projected winner
- Athens
- Margin error
- 42.5
Oct 9, 2026
Southview vs. Liberty-Benton
- Projected
- 17–21
- Final
- 20–17
- Projected winner
- Liberty-Benton
- Margin error
- 7.8
Oct 9, 2026
Sandusky vs. Clyde
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 20–21
- Projected winner
- Clyde
- Margin error
- 0.7
Oct 9, 2026
River Valley vs. Galion
- Projected
- 18–20
- Final
- 10–27
- Projected winner
- Galion
- Margin error
- 15.4
Oct 9, 2026
Padua Franciscan vs. Mentor Lake Catholic
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 28–7
- Projected winner
- Mentor Lake Catholic
- Margin error
- 23.2
Oct 9, 2026
Norwalk vs. Perkins
- Projected
- 12–29
- Final
- 0–75
- Projected winner
- Perkins
- Margin error
- 58.3
Oct 9, 2026
Maumee vs. Otsego
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 0–43
- Projected winner
- Otsego
- Margin error
- 40.5
Oct 9, 2026
Holy Name vs. Elyria Catholic
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 33–14
- Projected winner
- Holy Name
- Margin error
- 16.7
Oct 9, 2026
Defiance vs. Elida
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 12–34
- Projected winner
- Elida
- Margin error
- 21.7
Oct 9, 2026
Tiffin Columbian vs. Bellevue
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 35–21
- Projected winner
- Bellevue
- Margin error
- 14.2
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | 26–14 | 21–15 | Wilmington | Wilmington | 5.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 21–19 | 35–40 | Western Brown | New Richmond | 7.0 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 27–12 | 62–0 | Tri-Valley | Tri-Valley | 46.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 25–23 | 28–8 | Sheridan | Sheridan | 17.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 27–15 | 13–6 | Columbus South | Columbus South | 6.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 15–28 | 0–42 | Fort Frye | Fort Frye | 29.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 25–18 | 55–15 | Miami Trace | Miami Trace | 33.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 27–23 | 7–34 | Jonathan Alder | London | 30.6 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 23–24 | 32–12 | McClain | Jackson | 20.4 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 23–22 | 7–0 | Hamilton Township | Hamilton Township | 5.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 25–22 | 51–21 | Chillicothe | Chillicothe | 26.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 12–31 | 0–61 | Columbus East | Columbus East | 43.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20–25 | 17–39 | Columbus Academy | Columbus Academy | 17.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 16–27 | 7–63 | Bishop Watterson | Bishop Watterson | 45.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 23–18 | 32–14 | Beechcroft | Beechcroft | 12.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 26–17 | 60–8 | Athens | Athens | 42.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 17–21 | 20–17 | Liberty-Benton | Southview | 7.8 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 18–19 | 20–21 | Clyde | Clyde | 0.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 18–20 | 10–27 | Galion | Galion | 15.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20–22 | 28–7 | Mentor Lake Catholic | Padua Franciscan | 23.2 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 12–29 | 0–75 | Perkins | Perkins | 58.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 22–24 | 0–43 | Otsego | Otsego | 40.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 23–21 | 33–14 | Holy Name | Holy Name | 16.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 19–20 | 12–34 | Elida | Elida | 21.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 23–24 | 35–21 | Bellevue | Tiffin Columbian | 14.2 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.