Season Profile
- Record
- 6-1
- Coach
- T.j. Parker
- Football league
- All-American Conference · OSPR 51.3
- Division
- Division 1
- Region
- Region 1
Austintown-Fitch Falcons (
6-1
)
Youngstown, OH
2026 Team Snapshot
Model outlook updated Oct 12, 2026 2:00 AM · 10,000 simulations
OSPR Standing
66.7
Through Week 8
- Statewide
- #40
- Division
- #4
- Region
- #1
Previous: After Week 7
OSPR 65.0 · Statewide #57 · Division #5 · Region #1
Season Outlook
- Current Harbin points
- 16.82
- Projected regional seed
- #5
- Most likely record
- 8-1
- Expected wins
- 7.7
- Playoff qualification
- 100.0%
Next Opponent
Friday, Oct 16, 2026
Projected score: 31–14 (90.1% win estimate)
Medium calibration
Version 2026.1 Live projection Oct 16, 2026 7:42 PM
More OSPR details Rating components, playoff chances, and next-game scenarios
Detailed OSPR rating
Team Rating
What is OSPR?OSPR
66.7
B
Tier
Rank
#4
Harbin
16.82
Rising
Confidence
90%
Show Legacy Ratings
ELO
1708
CalPreps
2.89
FPI
51.89
OSPR Season Outlook
Monte Carlo projections based on current OSPR ratings and Harbin rules.
Updated Oct 12, 2026 2:00 AM · 10,000 simulations
Regular Season Projections
- Most likely record
- 8–1
- Expected wins
- 7.7
- Average Harbin
- 22.71
- Likely regional seed
- #5
Harbin range: 16.61–27.09
The record is the most common result; Harbin points are averaged across all simulations.
Playoff Chances Now
- Qualify
- 100.0%
- Home position
- 97.5%
- First-round bye
- 32.5%
Top 12
Top 8
Top 4
Depending on the Next Game
vs. Boardman
Win
22.81 Harbin
· #5 seed
100.0% in · 97.8% home · 33.9% bye
Loss
21.52 Harbin
· #5 seed
100.0% in · 93.2% home · 16.4% bye
2026 Schedule
OSPR percentages show Austintown-Fitch's chance to win.
Schedule predictions use the current OSPR ratings for this season.
Final
Aug 21, 2026
Hudson
(6-2)
24
19
Pick: W by 2 (57.8%)
Projected score: 25–23
Low calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 20, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Sep 04, 2026
42
Pick: L by 6 (31.5%)
Projected score: 18–24
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 3, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Sep 11, 2026
20
38
Pick: L by 5 (33.0%)
Projected score: 20–25
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 10, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Sep 18, 2026
Butler
6
77
No pregame prediction recorded
Final
Sep 25, 2026
Erie
(2-4)
Erie, PA
0
42
Pick: W by 14 (87.4%)
Projected score: 30–16
High calibration
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 24, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Oct 02, 2026
14
62
Pick: W by 12 (83.2%)
Projected score: 29–17
High calibration
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Oct 1, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Oct 09, 2026
48
McDowell
(4-2)
Erie, PA
10
Pick: W by 8 (74.8%)
Projected score: 27–19
High calibration
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Oct 8, 2026 10:35 AM
Scheduled
Oct 16, 2026
Boardman
(1-7)
Pick: W by 17 (90.1%)
Projected score: 31–14
Medium calibration
Version 2026.1 Live projection Oct 16, 2026 7:42 PM
Scheduled
Oct 23, 2026
Pick: W by 11 (80.2%)
Projected score: 29–18
High calibration
Version 2026.1 Live projection Oct 16, 2026 7:42 PM
| Date | Location | Opponent | Division | Result | Score | OSPR Prediction | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/21 | H | Division 1, Region 1 | L | 19-24 |
Pick: W by 2 (57.8%) Projected score: 25–23
Low calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 20, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 09/04 | A | Division 2, Region 5 | W | 42-10 |
Pick: L by 6 (31.5%) Projected score: 18–24
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 3, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 09/11 | H | Division 3, Region 9 | W | 38-20 |
Pick: L by 5 (33.0%) Projected score: 20–25
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 10, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 09/18 | H |
Butler
|
N/A | W | 77-6 | No pregame prediction recorded | |
| 09/25 | H |
Erie
(2-4)
(Erie, PA)
|
W | 42-0 |
Pick: W by 14 (87.4%) Projected score: 30–16
High calibration
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 24, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 10/02 | H | Division 2, Region 7 | W | 62-14 |
Pick: W by 12 (83.2%) Projected score: 29–17
High calibration
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Oct 1, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 10/09 | A |
McDowell
(4-2)
(Erie, PA)
|
W | 48-10 |
Pick: W by 8 (74.8%) Projected score: 27–19
High calibration
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Oct 8, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 10/16 | H | Division 2, Region 5 | — |
Pick: W by 17 (90.1%) Projected score: 31–14
Medium calibration
Version 2026.1 Live projection Oct 16, 2026 7:42 PM |
|||
| 10/23 | H | Division 2, Region 5 | — |
Pick: W by 11 (80.2%) Projected score: 29–18
High calibration
Version 2026.1 Live projection Oct 16, 2026 7:42 PM |
Disclaimer: These ratings are provided for informational purposes only. These ratings are computed using my implementation of the OHSAA playoff rating system outlined here, and do not reflect any personal opinions or bias regarding the relative strength or ability of any individual teams. By viewing these ratings, you agree that any misinformation provided is unintentional. Further, you also agree that the site owner and/or content writer cannot and will not be held responsible for any damages resulting from use of information published on this site.
