Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 9, 2026
Graham Local vs. Springfield Shawnee
- Projected
- 29–15
- Final
- 49–0
- Projected winner
- Graham Local
- Margin error
- 35.1
Oct 9, 2026
Eaton vs. Brookville
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 62–48
- Projected winner
- Brookville
- Margin error
- 15.3
Oct 9, 2026
Bethel-Tate vs. Clermont Northeastern
- Projected
- 16–21
- Final
- 9–13
- Projected winner
- Clermont Northeastern
- Margin error
- 1.5
Oct 9, 2026
Vincent Warren vs. Richmond Edison
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 29–28
- Projected winner
- Richmond Edison
- Margin error
- 1.2
Oct 9, 2026
Vinton County vs. Bidwell River Valley
- Projected
- 24–14
- Final
- 32–7
- Projected winner
- Vinton County
- Margin error
- 14.2
Oct 9, 2026
Union Local vs. Buckeye Local
- Projected
- 28–14
- Final
- 54–7
- Projected winner
- Union Local
- Margin error
- 32.9
Oct 9, 2026
St. Clairsville vs. Brooke
- Projected
- 22–15
- Final
- 14–13
- Projected winner
- St. Clairsville
- Margin error
- 6.3
Oct 9, 2026
Meadowbrook vs. Morgan
- Projected
- 20–16
- Final
- 6–7
- Projected winner
- Meadowbrook
- Margin error
- 4.1
Oct 9, 2026
Logan Elm vs. Fairland
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 49–13
- Projected winner
- Fairland
- Margin error
- 39.4
Oct 9, 2026
Hebron Lakewood vs. Utica
- Projected
- 15–20
- Final
- 7–48
- Projected winner
- Utica
- Margin error
- 35.3
Oct 9, 2026
John Glenn vs. Maysville
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 13–29
- Projected winner
- Maysville
- Margin error
- 15.3
Oct 9, 2026
Indian Valley vs. Garaway
- Projected
- 24–26
- Final
- 28–21
- Projected winner
- Garaway
- Margin error
- 9.2
Oct 9, 2026
Heath vs. Johnstown
- Projected
- 21–26
- Final
- 17–28
- Projected winner
- Johnstown
- Margin error
- 6.4
Oct 9, 2026
Gallia Academy vs. Chesapeake
- Projected
- 17–18
- Final
- 19–14
- Projected winner
- Chesapeake
- Margin error
- 5.5
Oct 9, 2026
Fairfield Union vs. Amanda-Clearcreek
- Projected
- 25–17
- Final
- 40–0
- Projected winner
- Fairfield Union
- Margin error
- 31.7
Oct 9, 2026
Claymont vs. Tuscarawas Valley
- Projected
- 27–18
- Final
- 35–0
- Projected winner
- Claymont
- Margin error
- 26.6
Oct 9, 2026
Circleville vs. Liberty Union
- Projected
- 20–18
- Final
- 41–14
- Projected winner
- Circleville
- Margin error
- 25.0
Oct 9, 2026
Cambridge vs. Weir
- Projected
- 17–16
- Final
- 42–21
- Projected winner
- Cambridge
- Margin error
- 20.4
Oct 9, 2026
Bexley vs. Bishop Ready
- Projected
- 18–22
- Final
- 21–14
- Projected winner
- Bishop Ready
- Margin error
- 10.9
Oct 9, 2026
Van Wert vs. Ottawa-Glandorf
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 26–38
- Projected winner
- Ottawa-Glandorf
- Margin error
- 11.0
Oct 9, 2026
Upper Sandusky vs. Willard
- Projected
- 23–18
- Final
- 28–20
- Projected winner
- Upper Sandusky
- Margin error
- 2.9
Oct 9, 2026
Triway vs. Akron Manchester
- Projected
- 26–25
- Final
- 38–6
- Projected winner
- Triway
- Margin error
- 30.8
Oct 9, 2026
Rossford vs. Fostoria
- Projected
- 25–12
- Final
- 49–13
- Projected winner
- Rossford
- Margin error
- 23.7
Oct 9, 2026
Ontario vs. Shelby
- Projected
- 26–25
- Final
- 7–41
- Projected winner
- Ontario
- Margin error
- 34.2
Oct 9, 2026
Keystone vs. Columbia
- Projected
- 23–27
- Final
- 34–7
- Projected winner
- Columbia
- Margin error
- 30.2
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | 29–15 | 49–0 | Graham Local | Graham Local | 35.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20–21 | 62–48 | Brookville | Eaton | 15.3 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 16–21 | 9–13 | Clermont Northeastern | Clermont Northeastern | 1.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 19–20 | 29–28 | Richmond Edison | Vincent Warren | 1.2 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 24–14 | 32–7 | Vinton County | Vinton County | 14.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 28–14 | 54–7 | Union Local | Union Local | 32.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 22–15 | 14–13 | St. Clairsville | St. Clairsville | 6.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20–16 | 6–7 | Meadowbrook | Morgan | 4.1 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20–23 | 49–13 | Fairland | Logan Elm | 39.4 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 15–20 | 7–48 | Utica | Utica | 35.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 22–23 | 13–29 | Maysville | Maysville | 15.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 24–26 | 28–21 | Garaway | Indian Valley | 9.2 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 21–26 | 17–28 | Johnstown | Johnstown | 6.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 17–18 | 19–14 | Chesapeake | Gallia Academy | 5.5 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 25–17 | 40–0 | Fairfield Union | Fairfield Union | 31.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 27–18 | 35–0 | Claymont | Claymont | 26.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20–18 | 41–14 | Circleville | Circleville | 25.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 17–16 | 42–21 | Cambridge | Cambridge | 20.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 18–22 | 21–14 | Bishop Ready | Bexley | 10.9 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 23–24 | 26–38 | Ottawa-Glandorf | Ottawa-Glandorf | 11.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 23–18 | 28–20 | Upper Sandusky | Upper Sandusky | 2.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 26–25 | 38–6 | Triway | Triway | 30.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 25–12 | 49–13 | Rossford | Rossford | 23.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 26–25 | 7–41 | Ontario | Shelby | 34.2 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 23–27 | 34–7 | Columbia | Keystone | 30.2 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
