Season Profile
- Record
- 1-1
- Coach
- Jim Sweat
- Football league
- Northern 10 Conference - East · OSPR 53.1
- Division
- Division 7
- Region
- Region 27
Lucas Cubs (
1-1
)
Lucas, OH
2026 Team Snapshot
Model outlook updated Aug 31, 2026 2:00 AM · 10,000 simulations
OSPR Standing
48.1
Through Week 2
- Statewide
- #432
- Division
- #63
- Region
- #17
Previous: After Week 1
OSPR 50.0 · Statewide #342 · Division #45 · Region #13
Season Outlook
- Current Harbin points
- 0.00
- Projected regional seed
- #12
- Most likely record
- 5-6
- Expected wins
- 4.8
- Playoff qualification
- 40.6%
Next Opponent
Friday, Sep 4, 2026
Projected score: 23–17 (68.8% win estimate)
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 1:58 AM
More OSPR details Rating components, playoff chances, and next-game scenarios
Detailed OSPR rating
Team Rating
What is OSPR?OSPR
48.1
C
Tier
Rank
#63
Harbin
0.00
Stable
Confidence
27%
Show Legacy Ratings
ELO
1492
CalPreps
-0.51
FPI
-1.93
OSPR Season Outlook
Monte Carlo projections based on current OSPR ratings and Harbin rules.
Updated Aug 31, 2026 2:00 AM · 10,000 simulations
Regular Season Projections
- Most likely record
- 5–6
- Expected wins
- 4.8
- Average Harbin
- 9.66
- Likely regional seed
- #12
Harbin range: 0.32–23.20
The record is the most common result; Harbin points are averaged across all simulations.
Playoff Chances Now
- Qualify
- 40.6%
- Home position
- 18.9%
- First-round bye
- 4.7%
Top 12
Top 8
Top 4
Depending on the Next Game
vs. Plymouth
Win
11.69 Harbin
· #13 seed
61.6% in · 34.5% home · 10.2% bye
Loss
8.63 Harbin
· #14 seed
30.0% in · 11.0% home · 2.0% bye
2026 Schedule
OSPR percentages show Lucas's chance to win.
Schedule predictions use the current OSPR ratings for this season.
Final
Aug 22, 2026
Lucas
(1-1)
29
Pick: W by 1 (51.5%)
Projected score: 20–19
Low calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 20, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Aug 28, 2026
28
Lucas
(1-1)
7
Pick: L by 2 (43.3%)
Projected score: 20–22
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 27, 2026 10:35 AM
Scheduled
Sep 04, 2026
Carey
(0-2)
Lucas
(1-1)
Pick: W by 6 (68.8%)
Projected score: 23–17
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 1:58 AM
Scheduled
Sep 11, 2026
Lucas
(1-1)
Willard
(2-0)
Pick: L by 4 (35.7%)
Projected score: 19–23
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 1:58 AM
Scheduled
Sep 18, 2026
Lucas
(1-1)
Pick: W by 5 (65.7%)
Projected score: 22–17
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 1:58 AM
Scheduled
Sep 25, 2026
Lucas
(1-1)
Pick: L by 5 (34.6%)
Projected score: 18–23
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 1:58 AM
Scheduled
Oct 02, 2026
Lucas
(1-1)
Pick: L by 1 (48.6%)
Projected score: 21–22
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 1:58 AM
Scheduled
Oct 09, 2026
Lucas
(1-1)
Pick: L by 7 (25.7%)
Projected score: 18–25
High calibration
Limited Data
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 1:58 AM
Scheduled
Oct 16, 2026
Lucas
(1-1)
Pick: L by 5 (33.8%)
Projected score: 20–25
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 1:58 AM
| Date | Location | Opponent | Division | Result | Score | OSPR Prediction | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/22 | A | Division 7, Region 27 | W | 29-13 |
Pick: W by 1 (51.5%) Projected score: 20–19
Low calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 20, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 08/28 | H | Division 6, Region 21 | L | 7-28 |
Pick: L by 2 (43.3%) Projected score: 20–22
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 27, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 09/04 | H | Division 6, Region 22 | — |
Pick: W by 6 (68.8%) Projected score: 23–17
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 1:58 AM |
|||
| 09/11 | A | Division 5, Region 18 | — |
Pick: L by 4 (35.7%) Projected score: 19–23
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 1:58 AM |
|||
| 09/18 | H | Division 7, Region 26 | — |
Pick: W by 5 (65.7%) Projected score: 22–17
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 1:58 AM |
|||
| 09/25 | A | Division 6, Region 23 | — |
Pick: L by 5 (34.6%) Projected score: 18–23
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 1:58 AM |
|||
| 10/02 | H | Division 7, Region 26 | — |
Pick: L by 1 (48.6%) Projected score: 21–22
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 1:58 AM |
|||
| 10/09 | A | Division 6, Region 22 | — |
Pick: L by 7 (25.7%) Projected score: 18–25
High calibration
Limited Data
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 1:58 AM |
|||
| 10/16 | H | Division 7, Region 26 | — |
Pick: L by 5 (33.8%) Projected score: 20–25
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 1:58 AM |
|||
| 10/23 | A | Division 6, Region 22 | — |
Pick: L by 1 (44.0%) Projected score: 20–21
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Sep 1, 2026 1:58 AM |
Disclaimer: These ratings are provided for informational purposes only. These ratings are computed using my implementation of the OHSAA playoff rating system outlined here, and do not reflect any personal opinions or bias regarding the relative strength or ability of any individual teams. By viewing these ratings, you agree that any misinformation provided is unintentional. Further, you also agree that the site owner and/or content writer cannot and will not be held responsible for any damages resulting from use of information published on this site.
