Season Profile
- Record
- 4-3
- Coach
- Mat Polta
- Football league
- Northeastern Athletic Conference · OSPR 47.8
- Division
- Division 7
- Region
- Region 25
Mathews Mustangs (
4-3
)
Vienna, OH
2026 Team Snapshot
Model outlook updated Oct 12, 2026 2:00 AM · 10,000 simulations
OSPR Standing
49.7
Through Week 8
- Statewide
- #374
- Division
- #46
- Region
- #12
Previous: After Week 7
OSPR 52.3 · Statewide #303 · Division #37 · Region #8
Season Outlook
- Current Harbin points
- 4.27
- Projected regional seed
- #9
- Most likely record
- 5-5
- Expected wins
- 5.2
- Playoff qualification
- 55.7%
Next Opponent
Madonna
Saturday, Sep 26, 2026
OSPR prediction unavailable.
More OSPR details Rating components, playoff chances, and next-game scenarios
Detailed OSPR rating
Team Rating
What is OSPR?OSPR
49.7
C
Tier
Rank
#45
Harbin
4.27
Rising
Confidence
90%
Show Legacy Ratings
ELO
1488
CalPreps
0.05
FPI
-2.95
OSPR Season Outlook
Monte Carlo projections based on current OSPR ratings and Harbin rules.
Updated Oct 12, 2026 2:00 AM · 10,000 simulations
Regular Season Projections
- Most likely record
- 5–5
- Expected wins
- 5.2
- Average Harbin
- 7.52
- Likely regional seed
- #9
Harbin range: 3.60–13.60
The record is the most common result; Harbin points are averaged across all simulations.
Playoff Chances Now
- Qualify
- 55.7%
- Home position
- 19.3%
- First-round bye
- 1.0%
Top 12
Top 8
Top 4
Depending on the Next Game
vs. next opponent
Win
8.06 Harbin
· #9 seed
63.1% in · 26.2% home · 1.6% bye
Loss
6.99 Harbin
· #11 seed
48.3% in · 12.4% home · 0.5% bye
1 unrated fixture used a 50% fallback probability.
2026 Schedule
OSPR percentages show Mathews's chance to win.
Schedule predictions use the current OSPR ratings for this season.
Final
Aug 20, 2026
27
Mathews
(4-3)
34
Pick: W by 7 (72.3%)
Projected score: 22–15
Low calibration
Limited Data
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 19, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Aug 28, 2026
20
Mathews
(4-3)
6
Pick: W by 3 (59.8%)
Projected score: 23–20
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 27, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Sep 04, 2026
Mathews
(4-3)
28
7
Pick: L by 9 (23.5%)
Projected score: 18–27
High calibration
Limited Data
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 3, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Sep 11, 2026
31
Mathews
(4-3)
14
Pick: W by 1 (50.2%)
Projected score: 22–21
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 10, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Sep 18, 2026
Mathews
(4-3)
32
28
Pick: L by 2 (44.4%)
Projected score: 19–21
High calibration
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 17, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Oct 02, 2026
Mathews
(4-3)
49
0
Pick: W by 6 (67.7%)
Projected score: 21–15
High calibration
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Oct 1, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Oct 09, 2026
28
Mathews
(4-3)
6
Pick: W by 5 (64.3%)
Projected score: 23–18
High calibration
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Oct 8, 2026 10:35 AM
Scheduled
Oct 16, 2026
Mathews
(4-3)
Pick: L by 3 (40.2%)
Projected score: 19–22
High calibration
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Oct 16, 2026 7:41 PM
Scheduled
Oct 23, 2026
Mathews
(4-3)
Pick: L by 10 (20.6%)
Projected score: 17–27
High calibration
Version 2026.1 Live projection Oct 16, 2026 7:41 PM
| Date | Location | Opponent | Division | Result | Score | OSPR Prediction | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/20 | H | Division 7, Region 25 | W | 34-27 |
Pick: W by 7 (72.3%) Projected score: 22–15
Low calibration
Limited Data
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 19, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 08/28 | H | Division 6, Region 21 | L | 6-20 |
Pick: W by 3 (59.8%) Projected score: 23–20
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 27, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 09/04 | A | Division 6, Region 21 | W | 28-7 |
Pick: L by 9 (23.5%) Projected score: 18–27
High calibration
Limited Data
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 3, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 09/11 | H | Division 6, Region 21 | L | 14-31 |
Pick: W by 1 (50.2%) Projected score: 22–21
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 10, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 09/18 | A | Division 7, Region 25 | W | 32-28 |
Pick: L by 2 (44.4%) Projected score: 19–21
High calibration
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 17, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 09/26 | A |
Madonna
|
N/A | — | Prediction unavailable | ||
| 10/02 | A | Division 7, Region 25 | W | 49-0 |
Pick: W by 6 (67.7%) Projected score: 21–15
High calibration
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Oct 1, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 10/09 | H | Division 7, Region 25 | L | 6-28 |
Pick: W by 5 (64.3%) Projected score: 23–18
High calibration
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Oct 8, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 10/16 | H | Division 6, Region 21 | — |
Pick: L by 3 (40.2%) Projected score: 19–22
High calibration
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Live projection Oct 16, 2026 7:41 PM |
|||
| 10/23 | A | Division 7, Region 27 | — |
Pick: L by 10 (20.6%) Projected score: 17–27
High calibration
Version 2026.1 Live projection Oct 16, 2026 7:41 PM |
Disclaimer: These ratings are provided for informational purposes only. These ratings are computed using my implementation of the OHSAA playoff rating system outlined here, and do not reflect any personal opinions or bias regarding the relative strength or ability of any individual teams. By viewing these ratings, you agree that any misinformation provided is unintentional. Further, you also agree that the site owner and/or content writer cannot and will not be held responsible for any damages resulting from use of information published on this site.