Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 2, 2026
Van Buren vs. Ridgemont
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 42–6
- Projected winner
- Van Buren
- Margin error
- 29.4
Oct 2, 2026
Tinora vs. Antwerp
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 34–14
- Projected winner
- Antwerp
- Margin error
- 21.5
Oct 2, 2026
Riverdale vs. Arlington
- Projected
- 17–18
- Final
- 13–40
- Projected winner
- Arlington
- Margin error
- 25.9
Oct 2, 2026
Ottawa Hills vs. Woodmore
- Projected
- 15–29
- Final
- 7–33
- Projected winner
- Woodmore
- Margin error
- 12.7
Oct 2, 2026
Margaretta vs. Northwood
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 45–14
- Projected winner
- Northwood
- Margin error
- 34.0
Oct 2, 2026
Hicksville vs. Wayne Trace
- Projected
- 13–25
- Final
- 0–49
- Projected winner
- Wayne Trace
- Margin error
- 36.8
Oct 2, 2026
Fairview vs. Paulding
- Projected
- 27–21
- Final
- 26–35
- Projected winner
- Fairview
- Margin error
- 14.1
Oct 2, 2026
Evergreen vs. Liberty Center
- Projected
- 11–31
- Final
- 0–62
- Projected winner
- Liberty Center
- Margin error
- 42.2
Oct 2, 2026
Delta vs. Patrick Henry
- Projected
- 28–20
- Final
- 7–26
- Projected winner
- Delta
- Margin error
- 26.3
Oct 2, 2026
Ashland Crestview vs. Norwalk St. Paul
- Projected
- 17–18
- Final
- 0–45
- Projected winner
- Norwalk St. Paul
- Margin error
- 43.7
Oct 2, 2026
Columbus Grove vs. Allen East
- Projected
- 25–24
- Final
- 33–18
- Projected winner
- Columbus Grove
- Margin error
- 15.0
Oct 2, 2026
Carey vs. Seneca East
- Projected
- 22–26
- Final
- 8–7
- Projected winner
- Seneca East
- Margin error
- 4.4
Oct 2, 2026
Bluffton vs. Lima Central Catholic
- Projected
- 27–24
- Final
- 21–26
- Projected winner
- Bluffton
- Margin error
- 7.7
Oct 2, 2026
Wickliffe vs. Cuyahoga Heights
- Projected
- 27–20
- Final
- 14–31
- Projected winner
- Wickliffe
- Margin error
- 23.6
Oct 2, 2026
Trinity vs. Fairport Harding
- Projected
- 19–16
- Final
- 30–20
- Projected winner
- Trinity
- Margin error
- 7.4
Oct 2, 2026
NM Springfield vs. Jackson-Milton
- Projected
- 24–16
- Final
- 47–0
- Projected winner
- NM Springfield
- Margin error
- 39.0
Oct 2, 2026
Rittman vs. Smithville
- Projected
- 17–27
- Final
- 0–41
- Projected winner
- Smithville
- Margin error
- 30.6
Oct 2, 2026
Norwayne vs. Dalton
- Projected
- 24–22
- Final
- 23–18
- Projected winner
- Norwayne
- Margin error
- 3.6
Oct 2, 2026
Mogadore vs. Pymatuning Valley
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 38–7
- Projected winner
- Mogadore
- Margin error
- 30.1
Oct 2, 2026
Mineral Ridge vs. Lowellville
- Projected
- 27–21
- Final
- 53–20
- Projected winner
- Mineral Ridge
- Margin error
- 27.6
Oct 2, 2026
Campbell Memorial vs. BC Western Reserve
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 26–14
- Projected winner
- BC Western Reserve
- Margin error
- 13.0
Oct 2, 2026
East Palestine vs. Hanoverton United
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 8–50
- Projected winner
- Hanoverton United
- Margin error
- 38.3
Oct 2, 2026
East Canton vs. Buckeye Trail
- Projected
- 25–13
- Final
- 34–0
- Projected winner
- East Canton
- Margin error
- 22.9
Oct 2, 2026
Columbiana vs. Valley Christian
- Projected
- 26–14
- Final
- 41–7
- Projected winner
- Columbiana
- Margin error
- 22.5
Oct 2, 2026
Cardinal vs. Mathews
- Projected
- 15–21
- Final
- 0–49
- Projected winner
- Mathews
- Margin error
- 43.5
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–17 | 42–6 | Van Buren | Van Buren | 29.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 21–23 | 34–14 | Antwerp | Tinora | 21.5 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 17–18 | 13–40 | Arlington | Arlington | 25.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 15–29 | 7–33 | Woodmore | Woodmore | 12.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–24 | 45–14 | Northwood | Margaretta | 34.0 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 13–25 | 0–49 | Wayne Trace | Wayne Trace | 36.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 27–21 | 26–35 | Fairview | Paulding | 14.1 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 11–31 | 0–62 | Liberty Center | Liberty Center | 42.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 28–20 | 7–26 | Delta | Patrick Henry | 26.3 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 17–18 | 0–45 | Norwalk St. Paul | Norwalk St. Paul | 43.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 25–24 | 33–18 | Columbus Grove | Columbus Grove | 15.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–26 | 8–7 | Seneca East | Carey | 4.4 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 27–24 | 21–26 | Bluffton | Lima Central Catholic | 7.7 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 27–20 | 14–31 | Wickliffe | Cuyahoga Heights | 23.6 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–16 | 30–20 | Trinity | Trinity | 7.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–16 | 47–0 | NM Springfield | NM Springfield | 39.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 17–27 | 0–41 | Smithville | Smithville | 30.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–22 | 23–18 | Norwayne | Norwayne | 3.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–22 | 38–7 | Mogadore | Mogadore | 30.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 27–21 | 53–20 | Mineral Ridge | Mineral Ridge | 27.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–21 | 26–14 | BC Western Reserve | Campbell Memorial | 13.0 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 21–24 | 8–50 | Hanoverton United | Hanoverton United | 38.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 25–13 | 34–0 | East Canton | East Canton | 22.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 26–14 | 41–7 | Columbiana | Columbiana | 22.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 15–21 | 0–49 | Mathews | Mathews | 43.5 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
