Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 2, 2026
Brookfield vs. LaBrae
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 18–13
- Projected winner
- Brookfield
- Margin error
- 4.2
Oct 2, 2026
West Liberty-Salem vs. Springfield Northeastern
- Projected
- 24–14
- Final
- 35–0
- Projected winner
- West Liberty-Salem
- Margin error
- 25.0
Oct 2, 2026
Versailles vs. Coldwater
- Projected
- 20–26
- Final
- 6–16
- Projected winner
- Coldwater
- Margin error
- 3.8
Oct 2, 2026
Roger Bacon vs. Williamsburg
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 14–21
- Projected winner
- Williamsburg
- Margin error
- 2.0
Oct 2, 2026
Purcell Marian vs. New Miami
- Projected
- 21–16
- Final
- 48–0
- Projected winner
- Purcell Marian
- Margin error
- 43.1
Oct 2, 2026
Preble Shawnee vs. Mississinawa Valley
- Projected
- 23–15
- Final
- 62–6
- Projected winner
- Preble Shawnee
- Margin error
- 47.7
Oct 2, 2026
North College Hill vs. Summit Country Day
- Projected
- 25–24
- Final
- 43–3
- Projected winner
- North College Hill
- Margin error
- 39.0
Oct 2, 2026
Mariemont vs. Deer Park
- Projected
- 19–28
- Final
- 0–17
- Projected winner
- Deer Park
- Margin error
- 8.6
Oct 2, 2026
Madison Plains vs. Greeneview
- Projected
- 26–19
- Final
- 37–0
- Projected winner
- Madison Plains
- Margin error
- 30.0
Oct 2, 2026
Greenon vs. Cedarville
- Projected
- 24–14
- Final
- 62–30
- Projected winner
- Greenon
- Margin error
- 22.0
Oct 2, 2026
Cincinnati Hills CA vs. Meadowdale
- Projected
- 27–16
- Final
- 36–0
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati Hills CA
- Margin error
- 25.2
Oct 2, 2026
Blanchester vs. Clermont Northeastern
- Projected
- 22–17
- Final
- 46–36
- Projected winner
- Blanchester
- Margin error
- 5.2
Oct 2, 2026
Bethel vs. Covington
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 6–34
- Projected winner
- Covington
- Margin error
- 23.4
Oct 2, 2026
Zane Trace vs. Paint Valley
- Projected
- 27–13
- Final
- 61–15
- Projected winner
- Zane Trace
- Margin error
- 32.9
Oct 2, 2026
Westfall vs. Chillicothe Southeastern
- Projected
- 16–22
- Final
- 55–36
- Projected winner
- Chillicothe Southeastern
- Margin error
- 25.3
Oct 2, 2026
West Muskingum vs. Crooksville
- Projected
- 25–21
- Final
- 56–14
- Projected winner
- West Muskingum
- Margin error
- 38.2
Oct 2, 2026
Wellston vs. Nelsonville-York
- Projected
- 18–26
- Final
- 0–48
- Projected winner
- Nelsonville-York
- Margin error
- 40.4
Oct 2, 2026
Portsmouth West vs. Lucasville Valley
- Projected
- 25–21
- Final
- 35–13
- Projected winner
- Portsmouth West
- Margin error
- 18.3
Oct 2, 2026
Portsmouth vs. Fairland
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 33–45
- Projected winner
- Fairland
- Margin error
- 10.9
Oct 2, 2026
Oak Hill vs. Wheelersburg
- Projected
- 16–25
- Final
- 0–51
- Projected winner
- Wheelersburg
- Margin error
- 41.0
Oct 2, 2026
Johnstown vs. Utica
- Projected
- 24–19
- Final
- 54–13
- Projected winner
- Johnstown
- Margin error
- 36.7
Oct 2, 2026
Coshocton vs. Morgan
- Projected
- 16–18
- Final
- 21–19
- Projected winner
- Morgan
- Margin error
- 3.8
Oct 2, 2026
Chesapeake vs. South Point
- Projected
- 15–28
- Final
- 8–33
- Projected winner
- South Point
- Margin error
- 12.5
Oct 2, 2026
Alexander vs. Bidwell River Valley
- Projected
- 24–14
- Final
- 19–18
- Projected winner
- Alexander
- Margin error
- 9.2
Oct 2, 2026
Wynford vs. Colonel Crawford
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 27–33
- Projected winner
- Colonel Crawford
- Margin error
- 4.5
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–22 | 18–13 | Brookfield | Brookfield | 4.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–14 | 35–0 | West Liberty-Salem | West Liberty-Salem | 25.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–26 | 6–16 | Coldwater | Coldwater | 3.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 17–25 | 14–21 | Williamsburg | Williamsburg | 2.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 21–16 | 48–0 | Purcell Marian | Purcell Marian | 43.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–15 | 62–6 | Preble Shawnee | Preble Shawnee | 47.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 25–24 | 43–3 | North College Hill | North College Hill | 39.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–28 | 0–17 | Deer Park | Deer Park | 8.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 26–19 | 37–0 | Madison Plains | Madison Plains | 30.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–14 | 62–30 | Greenon | Greenon | 22.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 27–16 | 36–0 | Cincinnati Hills CA | Cincinnati Hills CA | 25.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–17 | 46–36 | Blanchester | Blanchester | 5.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–24 | 6–34 | Covington | Covington | 23.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 27–13 | 61–15 | Zane Trace | Zane Trace | 32.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 16–22 | 55–36 | Chillicothe Southeastern | Westfall | 25.3 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 25–21 | 56–14 | West Muskingum | West Muskingum | 38.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 18–26 | 0–48 | Nelsonville-York | Nelsonville-York | 40.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 25–21 | 35–13 | Portsmouth West | Portsmouth West | 18.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–22 | 33–45 | Fairland | Fairland | 10.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 16–25 | 0–51 | Wheelersburg | Wheelersburg | 41.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–19 | 54–13 | Johnstown | Johnstown | 36.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 16–18 | 21–19 | Morgan | Coshocton | 3.8 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 15–28 | 8–33 | South Point | South Point | 12.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–14 | 19–18 | Alexander | Alexander | 9.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–21 | 27–33 | Colonel Crawford | Colonel Crawford | 4.5 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.