Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 2, 2026
Willard vs. Mohawk
- Projected
- 19–27
- Final
- 0–44
- Projected winner
- Mohawk
- Margin error
- 35.3
Oct 2, 2026
WS Northwestern vs. Hillsdale
- Projected
- 17–27
- Final
- 0–49
- Projected winner
- Hillsdale
- Margin error
- 38.8
Oct 2, 2026
Lakota vs. Gibsonburg
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 14–28
- Projected winner
- Gibsonburg
- Margin error
- 12.4
Oct 2, 2026
Millbury Lake vs. Otsego
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 35–33
- Projected winner
- Otsego
- Margin error
- 3.6
Oct 2, 2026
Indian Lake vs. Springfield Shawnee
- Projected
- 23–19
- Final
- 46–14
- Projected winner
- Indian Lake
- Margin error
- 27.7
Oct 2, 2026
Elmwood vs. Ada
- Projected
- 24–20
- Final
- 53–64
- Projected winner
- Elmwood
- Margin error
- 14.2
Oct 2, 2026
Eastwood vs. Oak Harbor
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 27–13
- Projected winner
- Eastwood
- Margin error
- 13.0
Oct 2, 2026
Chippewa vs. Waynedale
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 28–13
- Projected winner
- Chippewa
- Margin error
- 14.9
Oct 2, 2026
Benjamin Logan vs. North Union
- Projected
- 22–27
- Final
- 26–28
- Projected winner
- North Union
- Margin error
- 2.2
Oct 2, 2026
Lima Bath vs. Ottawa-Glandorf
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 7–23
- Projected winner
- Ottawa-Glandorf
- Margin error
- 12.4
Oct 2, 2026
Waterloo vs. McDonald
- Projected
- 13–29
- Final
- 0–1
- Projected winner
- McDonald
- Margin error
- 14.6
Oct 2, 2026
Tuslaw vs. Toronto
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 28–29
- Projected winner
- Toronto
- Margin error
- 3.2
Oct 2, 2026
Grand Valley vs. Leetonia
- Projected
- 23–16
- Final
- 40–14
- Projected winner
- Grand Valley
- Margin error
- 19.9
Oct 2, 2026
Garrettsville Garfield vs. Youngstown Liberty
- Projected
- 27–24
- Final
- 43–14
- Projected winner
- Garrettsville Garfield
- Margin error
- 26.2
Oct 2, 2026
Garaway vs. Sandy Valley
- Projected
- 28–15
- Final
- 55–21
- Projected winner
- Garaway
- Margin error
- 21.6
Oct 2, 2026
Crestwood vs. Kirtland
- Projected
- 21–27
- Final
- 0–32
- Projected winner
- Kirtland
- Margin error
- 25.9
Oct 2, 2026
Columbiana Crestview vs. Newton Falls
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 49–14
- Projected winner
- Newton Falls
- Margin error
- 40.8
Oct 2, 2026
Conneaut vs. Fairview Park
- Projected
- 26–16
- Final
- 36–21
- Projected winner
- Conneaut
- Margin error
- 4.4
Oct 2, 2026
Champion vs. Ravenna Southeast
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 14–26
- Projected winner
- Champion
- Margin error
- 12.7
Oct 2, 2026
Buckeye Local vs. Martins Ferry
- Projected
- 14–29
- Final
- 7–49
- Projected winner
- Martins Ferry
- Margin error
- 27.1
Oct 2, 2026
Berkshire vs. Rootstown
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 47–14
- Projected winner
- Berkshire
- Margin error
- 32.1
Oct 2, 2026
Beachwood vs. Independence
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 14–20
- Projected winner
- Independence
- Margin error
- 5.5
Oct 2, 2026
Wyoming vs. Madeira
- Projected
- 27–21
- Final
- 41–7
- Projected winner
- Wyoming
- Margin error
- 28.6
Oct 2, 2026
Waynesville vs. Carlisle
- Projected
- 24–21
- Final
- 13–38
- Projected winner
- Waynesville
- Margin error
- 27.2
Oct 2, 2026
Waverly vs. Minford
- Projected
- 21–19
- Final
- 48–24
- Projected winner
- Waverly
- Margin error
- 22.2
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–27 | 0–44 | Mohawk | Mohawk | 35.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 17–27 | 0–49 | Hillsdale | Hillsdale | 38.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 21–22 | 14–28 | Gibsonburg | Gibsonburg | 12.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 21–23 | 35–33 | Otsego | Millbury Lake | 3.6 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–19 | 46–14 | Indian Lake | Indian Lake | 27.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–20 | 53–64 | Elmwood | Ada | 14.2 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–21 | 27–13 | Eastwood | Eastwood | 13.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–19 | 28–13 | Chippewa | Chippewa | 14.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–27 | 26–28 | North Union | North Union | 2.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–24 | 7–23 | Ottawa-Glandorf | Ottawa-Glandorf | 12.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 13–29 | 0–1 | McDonald | McDonald | 14.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–24 | 28–29 | Toronto | Toronto | 3.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–16 | 40–14 | Grand Valley | Grand Valley | 19.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 27–24 | 43–14 | Garrettsville Garfield | Garrettsville Garfield | 26.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 28–15 | 55–21 | Garaway | Garaway | 21.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 21–27 | 0–32 | Kirtland | Kirtland | 25.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 17–23 | 49–14 | Newton Falls | Columbiana Crestview | 40.8 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 26–16 | 36–21 | Conneaut | Conneaut | 4.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–19 | 14–26 | Champion | Ravenna Southeast | 12.7 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 14–29 | 7–49 | Martins Ferry | Martins Ferry | 27.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–21 | 47–14 | Berkshire | Berkshire | 32.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–20 | 14–20 | Independence | Independence | 5.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 27–21 | 41–7 | Wyoming | Wyoming | 28.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–21 | 13–38 | Waynesville | Carlisle | 27.2 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 21–19 | 48–24 | Waverly | Waverly | 22.2 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.