Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 11, 2026
Avon Lake vs. Midview
- Projected
- 18–22
- Final
- 31–7
- Projected winner
- Midview
- Margin error
- 28.6
Sep 11, 2026
Avon vs. North Ridgeville
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 62–21
- Projected winner
- Avon
- Margin error
- 40.4
Sep 11, 2026
Anthony Wayne vs. Liberty-Benton
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 34–14
- Projected winner
- Liberty-Benton
- Margin error
- 26.1
Sep 11, 2026
Kent Roosevelt vs. Tallmadge
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 21–31
- Projected winner
- Kent Roosevelt
- Margin error
- 12.5
Sep 11, 2026
Eastlake North vs. hARVEY
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 21–0
- Projected winner
- Eastlake North
- Margin error
- 20.9
Sep 11, 2026
Nordonia vs. Medina Highland
- Projected
- 24–21
- Final
- 21–23
- Projected winner
- Nordonia
- Margin error
- 5.2
Sep 11, 2026
Madison vs. Chardon
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 16–20
- Projected winner
- Madison
- Margin error
- 4.6
Sep 11, 2026
Lakeside vs. Willoughby South
- Projected
- 15–30
- Final
- 7–41
- Projected winner
- Willoughby South
- Margin error
- 19.4
Sep 11, 2026
Hudson vs. North Royalton
- Projected
- 26–19
- Final
- 42–7
- Projected winner
- Hudson
- Margin error
- 28.6
Sep 11, 2026
Ellet vs. Canton Central Catholic
- Projected
- 17–20
- Final
- 21–20
- Projected winner
- Canton Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 4.3
Sep 11, 2026
Firestone vs. Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary
- Projected
- 17–18
- Final
- 6–38
- Projected winner
- Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary
- Margin error
- 31.8
Sep 11, 2026
Cuyahoga Falls vs. Cloverleaf
- Projected
- 24–19
- Final
- 7–51
- Projected winner
- Cuyahoga Falls
- Margin error
- 49.4
Sep 11, 2026
John Hay vs. Cleveland East Tech
- Projected
- 22–16
- Final
- 44–12
- Projected winner
- John Hay
- Margin error
- 25.8
Sep 11, 2026
Boardman vs. Louisville
- Projected
- 18–21
- Final
- 7–34
- Projected winner
- Louisville
- Margin error
- 23.6
Sep 11, 2026
Benedictine vs. ND Cathedral Latin
- Projected
- 24–21
- Final
- 13–31
- Projected winner
- Benedictine
- Margin error
- 20.8
Sep 11, 2026
Bedford vs. Brush
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 20–27
- Projected winner
- Bedford
- Margin error
- 8.4
Sep 11, 2026
Austintown-Fitch vs. Maple Heights
- Projected
- 20–25
- Final
- 38–20
- Projected winner
- Maple Heights
- Margin error
- 23.3
Sep 11, 2026
Western Hills vs. Miami Valley CA
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 20–21
- Projected winner
- Western Hills
- Margin error
- 3.0
Sep 11, 2026
West Clermont vs. Kings
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 14–45
- Projected winner
- West Clermont
- Margin error
- 31.7
Sep 11, 2026
Walnut Hills vs. Little Miami
- Projected
- 16–22
- Final
- 7–42
- Projected winner
- Little Miami
- Margin error
- 29.9
Sep 11, 2026
Princeton vs. Sycamore
- Projected
- 26–16
- Final
- 56–7
- Projected winner
- Princeton
- Margin error
- 38.8
Sep 11, 2026
Milford vs. Loveland
- Projected
- 22–15
- Final
- 35–36
- Projected winner
- Milford
- Margin error
- 8.5
Sep 11, 2026
Lebanon vs. Anderson
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 13–52
- Projected winner
- Anderson
- Margin error
- 37.7
Sep 11, 2026
Lakota East vs. Mason
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 24–20
- Projected winner
- Lakota East
- Margin error
- 3.0
Sep 11, 2026
Hamilton vs. Lakota West
- Projected
- 16–26
- Final
- 7–42
- Projected winner
- Lakota West
- Margin error
- 25.5
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–22 | 31–7 | Midview | Avon Lake | 28.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–20 | 62–21 | Avon | Avon | 40.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 17–23 | 34–14 | Liberty-Benton | Anthony Wayne | 26.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–20 | 21–31 | Kent Roosevelt | Tallmadge | 12.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–23 | 21–0 | Eastlake North | Eastlake North | 20.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–21 | 21–23 | Nordonia | Medina Highland | 5.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–20 | 16–20 | Madison | Chardon | 4.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 15–30 | 7–41 | Willoughby South | Willoughby South | 19.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 26–19 | 42–7 | Hudson | Hudson | 28.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 17–20 | 21–20 | Canton Central Catholic | Ellet | 4.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 17–18 | 6–38 | Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary | Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary | 31.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–19 | 7–51 | Cuyahoga Falls | Cloverleaf | 49.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–16 | 44–12 | John Hay | John Hay | 25.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–21 | 7–34 | Louisville | Louisville | 23.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–21 | 13–31 | Benedictine | ND Cathedral Latin | 20.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–19 | 20–27 | Bedford | Brush | 8.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–25 | 38–20 | Maple Heights | Austintown-Fitch | 23.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–20 | 20–21 | Western Hills | Miami Valley CA | 3.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–20 | 14–45 | West Clermont | Kings | 31.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 16–22 | 7–42 | Little Miami | Little Miami | 29.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 26–16 | 56–7 | Princeton | Princeton | 38.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–15 | 35–36 | Milford | Loveland | 8.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–24 | 13–52 | Anderson | Anderson | 37.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–17 | 24–20 | Lakota East | Lakota East | 3.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 16–26 | 7–42 | Lakota West | Lakota West | 25.5 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
