Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 10, 2026
Solon vs. Wadsworth
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 8–42
- Projected winner
- Wadsworth
- Margin error
- 27.9
Sep 10, 2026
Shaker Heights vs. Painesville Riverside
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 3–33
- Projected winner
- Shaker Heights
- Margin error
- 30.7
Sep 5, 2026
Holgate vs. Kennedy Catholic
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 36–6
- Projected winner
- Kennedy Catholic
- Margin error
- 31.6
Sep 5, 2026
Windham vs. Stryker
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 54–20
- Projected winner
- Windham
- Margin error
- 32.5
Sep 5, 2026
Sebring McKinley vs. Danbury
- Projected
- 17–20
- Final
- 7–46
- Projected winner
- Danbury
- Margin error
- 36.3
Sep 5, 2026
Jackson-Milton vs. Ashtabula St. John
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 0–33
- Projected winner
- Ashtabula St. John
- Margin error
- 31.9
Sep 5, 2026
Chalker vs. Fremont St. Joseph
- Projected
- 27–20
- Final
- 30–34
- Projected winner
- Chalker
- Margin error
- 11.4
Sep 5, 2026
Adena vs. Cincinnati Eagles (club)
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 54–8
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati Eagles (club)
- Margin error
- 51.3
Sep 5, 2026
Pymatuning Valley vs. Valley Christian
- Projected
- 21–16
- Final
- 40–0
- Projected winner
- Pymatuning Valley
- Margin error
- 35.1
Sep 5, 2026
Bishop Watterson vs. Ursuline
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 41–10
- Projected winner
- Bishop Watterson
- Margin error
- 30.6
Sep 5, 2026
Buchtel vs. Mentor Lake Catholic
- Projected
- 21–19
- Final
- 14–13
- Projected winner
- Buchtel
- Margin error
- 1.0
Sep 5, 2026
Akron North vs. Cleveland East Tech
- Projected
- 17–22
- Final
- 8–6
- Projected winner
- Cleveland East Tech
- Margin error
- 7.0
Sep 5, 2026
John Marshall vs. Cleveland Central Catholic
- Projected
- 16–23
- Final
- 0–50
- Projected winner
- Cleveland Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 42.6
Sep 5, 2026
Firestone vs. Lutheran East
- Projected
- 17–18
- Final
- 12–33
- Projected winner
- Lutheran East
- Margin error
- 20.8
Sep 5, 2026
Cleveland Heights vs. GlenOak
- Projected
- 16–21
- Final
- 6–20
- Projected winner
- GlenOak
- Margin error
- 9.9
Sep 4, 2026
Cameron vs. Valley (Wetzel)
- Projected
- 24–18
- Final
- 48–6
- Projected winner
- Cameron
- Margin error
- 36.5
Sep 4, 2026
Wirt County vs. Magnolia
- Projected
- 25–15
- Final
- 34–12
- Projected winner
- Wirt County
- Margin error
- 12.7
Sep 4, 2026
John Marshall vs. Weir
- Projected
- 24–11
- Final
- 42–7
- Projected winner
- John Marshall
- Margin error
- 22.5
Sep 4, 2026
River Rouge vs. Birmingham Brother Rice
- Projected
- 16–26
- Final
- 6–42
- Projected winner
- Birmingham Brother Rice
- Margin error
- 25.8
Sep 4, 2026
Bishop Chatard vs. Roncalli
- Projected
- 25–26
- Final
- 42–14
- Projected winner
- Roncalli
- Margin error
- 28.4
Sep 4, 2026
Covington Catholic vs. Simon Kenton
- Projected
- 25–21
- Final
- 42–7
- Projected winner
- Covington Catholic
- Margin error
- 30.1
Sep 4, 2026
St. Francis vs. Bennett
- Projected
- 25–19
- Final
- 53–20
- Projected winner
- St. Francis
- Margin error
- 27.0
Sep 4, 2026
Detroit King vs. Orchard Lake St. Mary
- Projected
- 24–28
- Final
- 44–42
- Projected winner
- Orchard Lake St. Mary
- Margin error
- 5.7
Sep 4, 2026
Tri-County North vs. Tri-Village
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 13–49
- Projected winner
- Tri-County North
- Margin error
- 38.0
Sep 4, 2026
Franklin Furnace Green vs. Manchester
- Projected
- 22–17
- Final
- 24–36
- Projected winner
- Franklin Furnace Green
- Margin error
- 17.4
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | 19–25 | 8–42 | Wadsworth | Wadsworth | 27.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 21–20 | 3–33 | Shaker Heights | Painesville Riverside | 30.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | 20–22 | 36–6 | Kennedy Catholic | Holgate | 31.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | 22–20 | 54–20 | Windham | Windham | 32.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | 17–20 | 7–46 | Danbury | Danbury | 36.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | 20–21 | 0–33 | Ashtabula St. John | Ashtabula St. John | 31.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | 27–20 | 30–34 | Chalker | Fremont St. Joseph | 11.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | 17–23 | 54–8 | Cincinnati Eagles (club) | Adena | 51.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | 21–16 | 40–0 | Pymatuning Valley | Pymatuning Valley | 35.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | 24–23 | 41–10 | Bishop Watterson | Bishop Watterson | 30.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | 21–19 | 14–13 | Buchtel | Buchtel | 1.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | 17–22 | 8–6 | Cleveland East Tech | Akron North | 7.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | 16–23 | 0–50 | Cleveland Central Catholic | Cleveland Central Catholic | 42.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | 17–18 | 12–33 | Lutheran East | Lutheran East | 20.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | 16–21 | 6–20 | GlenOak | GlenOak | 9.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 24–18 | 48–6 | Cameron | Cameron | 36.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 25–15 | 34–12 | Wirt County | Wirt County | 12.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 24–11 | 42–7 | John Marshall | John Marshall | 22.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 16–26 | 6–42 | Birmingham Brother Rice | Birmingham Brother Rice | 25.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 25–26 | 42–14 | Roncalli | Bishop Chatard | 28.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 25–21 | 42–7 | Covington Catholic | Covington Catholic | 30.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 25–19 | 53–20 | St. Francis | St. Francis | 27.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 24–28 | 44–42 | Orchard Lake St. Mary | Detroit King | 5.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–22 | 13–49 | Tri-County North | Tri-Village | 38.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–17 | 24–36 | Franklin Furnace Green | Manchester | 17.4 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
