Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 11, 2026
Elder vs. LaSalle
- Projected
- 27–21
- Final
- 35–0
- Projected winner
- Elder
- Margin error
- 29.0
Sep 11, 2026
Colerain vs. Fairfield
- Projected
- 22–17
- Final
- 34–28
- Projected winner
- Colerain
- Margin error
- 0.8
Sep 11, 2026
Moeller vs. Christ Presbyterian Academy
- Projected
- 24–19
- Final
- 42–14
- Projected winner
- Moeller
- Margin error
- 23.0
Sep 11, 2026
Westland vs. Worthington Kilbourne
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 20–49
- Projected winner
- Worthington Kilbourne
- Margin error
- 28.3
Sep 11, 2026
Westerville North vs. St. Xavier
- Projected
- 24–19
- Final
- 0–31
- Projected winner
- Westerville North
- Margin error
- 36.0
Sep 11, 2026
Reynoldsburg vs. Canal Winchester
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 20–21
- Projected winner
- Canal Winchester
- Margin error
- 1.1
Sep 11, 2026
Pickerington Central vs. Logan
- Projected
- 15–22
- Final
- 55–6
- Projected winner
- Logan
- Margin error
- 56.4
Sep 11, 2026
New Albany vs. Upper Arlington
- Projected
- 21–26
- Final
- 28–21
- Projected winner
- Upper Arlington
- Margin error
- 12.6
Sep 11, 2026
Lancaster vs. Teays Valley
- Projected
- 18–26
- Final
- 6–0
- Projected winner
- Teays Valley
- Margin error
- 14.0
Sep 11, 2026
Hilliard Darby vs. Hilliard Davidson
- Projected
- 24–18
- Final
- 41–7
- Projected winner
- Hilliard Darby
- Margin error
- 28.8
Sep 11, 2026
Groveport-Madison vs. Newark
- Projected
- 21–19
- Final
- 35–14
- Projected winner
- Groveport-Madison
- Margin error
- 19.2
Sep 11, 2026
Grove City vs. Thomas Worthington
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 49–14
- Projected winner
- Grove City
- Margin error
- 29.8
Sep 11, 2026
Gahanna Lincoln vs. Olentangy Orange
- Projected
- 25–21
- Final
- 34–9
- Projected winner
- Gahanna Lincoln
- Margin error
- 21.4
Sep 11, 2026
Central Crossing vs. Olentangy
- Projected
- 16–20
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- Olentangy
- Margin error
- 37.5
Sep 11, 2026
Whitmer vs. Fremont Ross
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 49–2
- Projected winner
- Whitmer
- Margin error
- 44.9
Sep 11, 2026
Springboro vs. Wayne
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 26–42
- Projected winner
- Springboro
- Margin error
- 17.3
Sep 11, 2026
Perrysburg vs. Holland Springfield
- Projected
- 26–21
- Final
- 44–13
- Projected winner
- Perrysburg
- Margin error
- 25.7
Sep 11, 2026
Olentangy Liberty vs. Olentangy Berlin
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 27–17
- Projected winner
- Olentangy Berlin
- Margin error
- 13.5
Sep 11, 2026
Middletown vs. Oak Hills
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 21–14
- Projected winner
- Oak Hills
- Margin error
- 12.3
Sep 11, 2026
Miamisburg vs. Springfield
- Projected
- 26–16
- Final
- 14–41
- Projected winner
- Miamisburg
- Margin error
- 36.7
Sep 11, 2026
Marysville vs. Hilliard Bradley
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 7–41
- Projected winner
- Hilliard Bradley
- Margin error
- 30.5
Sep 11, 2026
Findlay vs. Southview
- Projected
- 26–17
- Final
- 35–13
- Projected winner
- Findlay
- Margin error
- 13.1
Sep 11, 2026
Dublin Jerome vs. Westerville Central
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 10–16
- Projected winner
- Dublin Jerome
- Margin error
- 12.7
Sep 11, 2026
Dublin Coffman vs. Pickerington North
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 0–35
- Projected winner
- Pickerington North
- Margin error
- 34.8
Sep 11, 2026
Delaware Hayes vs. Big Walnut
- Projected
- 21–26
- Final
- 0–46
- Projected winner
- Big Walnut
- Margin error
- 40.5
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | 27–21 | 35–0 | Elder | Elder | 29.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–17 | 34–28 | Colerain | Colerain | 0.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–19 | 42–14 | Moeller | Moeller | 23.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–24 | 20–49 | Worthington Kilbourne | Worthington Kilbourne | 28.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–19 | 0–31 | Westerville North | St. Xavier | 36.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–22 | 20–21 | Canal Winchester | Canal Winchester | 1.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 15–22 | 55–6 | Logan | Pickerington Central | 56.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–26 | 28–21 | Upper Arlington | New Albany | 12.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–26 | 6–0 | Teays Valley | Lancaster | 14.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–18 | 41–7 | Hilliard Darby | Hilliard Darby | 28.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–19 | 35–14 | Groveport-Madison | Groveport-Madison | 19.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–17 | 49–14 | Grove City | Grove City | 29.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–21 | 34–9 | Gahanna Lincoln | Gahanna Lincoln | 21.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 16–20 | 0–42 | Olentangy | Olentangy | 37.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–21 | 49–2 | Whitmer | Whitmer | 44.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–20 | 26–42 | Springboro | Wayne | 17.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 26–21 | 44–13 | Perrysburg | Perrysburg | 25.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–23 | 27–17 | Olentangy Berlin | Olentangy Liberty | 13.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–24 | 21–14 | Oak Hills | Middletown | 12.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 26–16 | 14–41 | Miamisburg | Springfield | 36.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–23 | 7–41 | Hilliard Bradley | Hilliard Bradley | 30.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 26–17 | 35–13 | Findlay | Findlay | 13.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–17 | 10–16 | Dublin Jerome | Westerville Central | 12.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–23 | 0–35 | Pickerington North | Pickerington North | 34.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–26 | 0–46 | Big Walnut | Big Walnut | 40.5 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
