Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 11, 2026
Archbishop Alter vs. Trotwood-Madison
- Projected
- 24–21
- Final
- 0–34
- Projected winner
- Archbishop Alter
- Margin error
- 37.1
Sep 11, 2026
Aiken vs. Lloyd Memerial
- Projected
- 19–29
- Final
- 14–32
- Projected winner
- Lloyd Memerial
- Margin error
- 9.0
Sep 11, 2026
Zanesville vs. Garaway
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 22–48
- Projected winner
- Garaway
- Margin error
- 21.8
Sep 11, 2026
Wilmington vs. Ross
- Projected
- 25–20
- Final
- 34–14
- Projected winner
- Wilmington
- Margin error
- 14.8
Sep 11, 2026
Tri-Valley vs. Philo
- Projected
- 25–21
- Final
- 29–31
- Projected winner
- Tri-Valley
- Margin error
- 5.0
Sep 11, 2026
Columbus DeSales vs. Cleveland VASJ
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 17–20
- Projected winner
- Cleveland VASJ
- Margin error
- 1.4
Sep 11, 2026
Sheridan vs. Maysville
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 28–7
- Projected winner
- Sheridan
- Margin error
- 20.6
Sep 11, 2026
Miami Trace vs. Batavia
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 42–13
- Projected winner
- Miami Trace
- Margin error
- 22.7
Sep 11, 2026
London vs. Indian Lake
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 29–7
- Projected winner
- Indian Lake
- Margin error
- 23.6
Sep 11, 2026
Jonathan Alder vs. North Union
- Projected
- 26–24
- Final
- 26–24
- Projected winner
- Jonathan Alder
- Margin error
- 0.4
Sep 11, 2026
Jackson vs. Western Brown
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 56–21
- Projected winner
- Western Brown
- Margin error
- 36.5
Sep 11, 2026
Chillicothe vs. Hamilton Township
- Projected
- 25–23
- Final
- 14–13
- Projected winner
- Chillicothe
- Margin error
- 1.2
Sep 11, 2026
Centennial vs. Linden McKinley
- Projected
- 17–26
- Final
- 6–28
- Projected winner
- Linden McKinley
- Margin error
- 12.5
Sep 11, 2026
Bishop Watterson vs. Glenville
- Projected
- 25–22
- Final
- 35–13
- Projected winner
- Bishop Watterson
- Margin error
- 19.2
Sep 11, 2026
Bishop Hartley vs. Hamilton Badin
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 13–46
- Projected winner
- Hamilton Badin
- Margin error
- 28.2
Sep 11, 2026
Bellefontaine vs. Benjamin Logan
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 0–45
- Projected winner
- Benjamin Logan
- Margin error
- 44.9
Sep 11, 2026
Athens vs. Alexander
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 47–6
- Projected winner
- Alexander
- Margin error
- 44.7
Sep 11, 2026
River Valley vs. Marion Pleasant
- Projected
- 16–23
- Final
- 13–48
- Projected winner
- Marion Pleasant
- Margin error
- 27.1
Sep 11, 2026
Norwalk vs. Bellevue
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 0–55
- Projected winner
- Bellevue
- Margin error
- 50.4
Sep 11, 2026
Padua Franciscan vs. Sandusky
- Projected
- 18–20
- Final
- 23–21
- Projected winner
- Sandusky
- Margin error
- 4.4
Sep 11, 2026
Maumee vs. Millbury Lake
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 40–17
- Projected winner
- Millbury Lake
- Margin error
- 27.7
Sep 11, 2026
Mansfield Senior vs. West Holmes
- Projected
- 14–26
- Final
- 7–47
- Projected winner
- West Holmes
- Margin error
- 27.8
Sep 11, 2026
Defiance vs. St. Marys Memorial
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 21–35
- Projected winner
- St. Marys Memorial
- Margin error
- 6.9
Sep 11, 2026
Bay vs. Medina Buckeye
- Projected
- 16–22
- Final
- 14–33
- Projected winner
- Medina Buckeye
- Margin error
- 13.0
Sep 11, 2026
Streetsboro vs. Norton
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 42–35
- Projected winner
- Norton
- Margin error
- 7.5
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–21 | 0–34 | Archbishop Alter | Trotwood-Madison | 37.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–29 | 14–32 | Lloyd Memerial | Lloyd Memerial | 9.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–24 | 22–48 | Garaway | Garaway | 21.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–20 | 34–14 | Wilmington | Wilmington | 14.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–21 | 29–31 | Tri-Valley | Philo | 5.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–24 | 17–20 | Cleveland VASJ | Cleveland VASJ | 1.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–21 | 28–7 | Sheridan | Sheridan | 20.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–17 | 42–13 | Miami Trace | Miami Trace | 22.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–24 | 29–7 | Indian Lake | London | 23.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 26–24 | 26–24 | Jonathan Alder | Jonathan Alder | 0.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–23 | 56–21 | Western Brown | Jackson | 36.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–23 | 14–13 | Chillicothe | Chillicothe | 1.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 17–26 | 6–28 | Linden McKinley | Linden McKinley | 12.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–22 | 35–13 | Bishop Watterson | Bishop Watterson | 19.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–23 | 13–46 | Hamilton Badin | Hamilton Badin | 28.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–22 | 0–45 | Benjamin Logan | Benjamin Logan | 44.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–24 | 47–6 | Alexander | Athens | 44.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 16–23 | 13–48 | Marion Pleasant | Marion Pleasant | 27.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–23 | 0–55 | Bellevue | Bellevue | 50.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–20 | 23–21 | Sandusky | Padua Franciscan | 4.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–24 | 40–17 | Millbury Lake | Maumee | 27.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 14–26 | 7–47 | West Holmes | West Holmes | 27.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 17–25 | 21–35 | St. Marys Memorial | St. Marys Memorial | 6.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 16–22 | 14–33 | Medina Buckeye | Medina Buckeye | 13.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–23 | 42–35 | Norton | Streetsboro | 7.5 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
