Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 11, 2026
Briggs vs. Africentric
- Projected
- 26–13
- Final
- 6–36
- Projected winner
- Briggs
- Margin error
- 42.8
Sep 11, 2026
Wooster vs. Mansfield Madison
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 34–13
- Projected winner
- Mansfield Madison
- Margin error
- 28.1
Sep 11, 2026
Watkins Memorial vs. Marietta
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 42–13
- Projected winner
- Marietta
- Margin error
- 29.3
Sep 11, 2026
Massillon Washington vs. Canisius
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Canisius
- Margin error
- 42.4
Sep 11, 2026
Walnut Ridge vs. Columbus South
- Projected
- 15–27
- Final
- 0–6
- Projected winner
- Columbus South
- Margin error
- 5.7
Sep 11, 2026
St. Charles vs. Bishop Ready
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 44–2
- Projected winner
- St. Charles
- Margin error
- 40.3
Sep 11, 2026
Northland vs. Whitehall-Yearling
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 6–26
- Projected winner
- Northland
- Margin error
- 20.5
Sep 11, 2026
Mount Vernon vs. Johnstown
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 30–37
- Projected winner
- Johnstown
- Margin error
- 0.0
Sep 11, 2026
Mifflin vs. Columbus East
- Projected
- 17–20
- Final
- 0–54
- Projected winner
- Columbus East
- Margin error
- 51.0
Sep 11, 2026
Marion Harding vs. Highland
- Projected
- 24–18
- Final
- 26–22
- Projected winner
- Marion Harding
- Margin error
- 2.4
Sep 11, 2026
Licking Heights vs. Buckeye Valley
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 12–27
- Projected winner
- Buckeye Valley
- Margin error
- 10.3
Sep 11, 2026
Columbus Independence vs. Marion Franklin
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 14–49
- Projected winner
- Marion Franklin
- Margin error
- 35.0
Sep 11, 2026
Uniontown Lake vs. Massillon Perry
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 15–9
- Projected winner
- Massillon Perry
- Margin error
- 11.0
Sep 11, 2026
Uniontown Green vs. North Canton Hoover
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 24–20
- Projected winner
- Uniontown Green
- Margin error
- 2.3
Sep 11, 2026
Dublin Scioto vs. Westerville South
- Projected
- 25–14
- Final
- 0–21
- Projected winner
- Dublin Scioto
- Margin error
- 31.9
Sep 11, 2026
Waite vs. Rogers
- Projected
- 18–17
- Final
- 31–6
- Projected winner
- Waite
- Margin error
- 23.0
Sep 11, 2026
Northview vs. Bowling Green
- Projected
- 15–19
- Final
- 13–45
- Projected winner
- Bowling Green
- Margin error
- 27.2
Sep 11, 2026
Toledo St. John's vs. Orchard Lake St. Mary
- Projected
- 23–27
- Final
- 7–56
- Projected winner
- Orchard Lake St. Mary
- Margin error
- 44.6
Sep 11, 2026
North Olmsted vs. Valley Forge
- Projected
- 22–14
- Final
- 20–6
- Projected winner
- North Olmsted
- Margin error
- 6.2
Sep 11, 2026
Normandy vs. Westlake
- Projected
- 17–20
- Final
- 19–42
- Projected winner
- Westlake
- Margin error
- 20.3
Sep 11, 2026
Lakewood vs. Rocky River
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 7–49
- Projected winner
- Rocky River
- Margin error
- 41.5
Sep 11, 2026
Toledo Central Catholic vs. Toledo St. Francis
- Projected
- 24–19
- Final
- 47–7
- Projected winner
- Toledo Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 34.6
Sep 11, 2026
Oregon Clay vs. Napoleon
- Projected
- 27–16
- Final
- 52–13
- Projected winner
- Oregon Clay
- Margin error
- 28.0
Sep 11, 2026
Bowsher vs. Toledo Woodward
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 41–6
- Projected winner
- Toledo Woodward
- Margin error
- 35.9
Sep 11, 2026
Barberton vs. Brecksville
- Projected
- 26–17
- Final
- 12–25
- Projected winner
- Barberton
- Margin error
- 22.4
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | 26–13 | 6–36 | Briggs | Africentric | 42.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 17–24 | 34–13 | Mansfield Madison | Wooster | 28.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–21 | 42–13 | Marietta | Watkins Memorial | 29.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–24 | 42–0 | Canisius | Massillon Washington | 42.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 15–27 | 0–6 | Columbus South | Columbus South | 5.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–22 | 44–2 | St. Charles | St. Charles | 40.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–20 | 6–26 | Northland | Whitehall-Yearling | 20.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–25 | 30–37 | Johnstown | Johnstown | 0.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 17–20 | 0–54 | Columbus East | Columbus East | 51.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–18 | 26–22 | Marion Harding | Marion Harding | 2.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–23 | 12–27 | Buckeye Valley | Buckeye Valley | 10.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–19 | 14–49 | Marion Franklin | Marion Franklin | 35.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–25 | 15–9 | Massillon Perry | Uniontown Lake | 11.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–21 | 24–20 | Uniontown Green | Uniontown Green | 2.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–14 | 0–21 | Dublin Scioto | Westerville South | 31.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–17 | 31–6 | Waite | Waite | 23.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 15–19 | 13–45 | Bowling Green | Bowling Green | 27.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–27 | 7–56 | Orchard Lake St. Mary | Orchard Lake St. Mary | 44.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–14 | 20–6 | North Olmsted | North Olmsted | 6.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 17–20 | 19–42 | Westlake | Westlake | 20.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–24 | 7–49 | Rocky River | Rocky River | 41.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–19 | 47–7 | Toledo Central Catholic | Toledo Central Catholic | 34.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 27–16 | 52–13 | Oregon Clay | Oregon Clay | 28.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–19 | 41–6 | Toledo Woodward | Bowsher | 35.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 26–17 | 12–25 | Barberton | Brecksville | 22.4 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
