Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 11, 2026
Columbus Grove vs. Lima Central Catholic
- Projected
- 23–25
- Final
- 6–13
- Projected winner
- Lima Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 5.2
Sep 11, 2026
Colonel Crawford vs. Tiffin Calvert
- Projected
- 24–16
- Final
- 44–12
- Projected winner
- Colonel Crawford
- Margin error
- 24.1
Sep 11, 2026
Bucyrus vs. Mohawk
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 7–56
- Projected winner
- Mohawk
- Margin error
- 45.6
Sep 11, 2026
Bluffton vs. Allen East
- Projected
- 27–22
- Final
- 35–13
- Projected winner
- Bluffton
- Margin error
- 16.8
Sep 11, 2026
Archbold vs. Delta
- Projected
- 25–26
- Final
- 38–7
- Projected winner
- Delta
- Margin error
- 31.4
Sep 11, 2026
Trinity vs. Wickliffe
- Projected
- 15–28
- Final
- 18–48
- Projected winner
- Wickliffe
- Margin error
- 16.6
Sep 11, 2026
Pymatuning Valley vs. Mathews
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 31–14
- Projected winner
- Mathews
- Margin error
- 17.1
Sep 11, 2026
Norwayne vs. Rittman
- Projected
- 17–26
- Final
- 34–7
- Projected winner
- Rittman
- Margin error
- 36.5
Sep 11, 2026
Mogadore vs. Malvern
- Projected
- 18–20
- Final
- 46–16
- Projected winner
- Malvern
- Margin error
- 32.1
Sep 11, 2026
Mineral Ridge vs. NM Springfield
- Projected
- 26–19
- Final
- 27–7
- Projected winner
- Mineral Ridge
- Margin error
- 13.3
Sep 11, 2026
Campbell Memorial vs. McDonald
- Projected
- 20–26
- Final
- 16–54
- Projected winner
- McDonald
- Margin error
- 32.4
Sep 11, 2026
Hillsdale vs. Dalton
- Projected
- 27–18
- Final
- 21–16
- Projected winner
- Hillsdale
- Margin error
- 4.4
Sep 11, 2026
East Palestine vs. David Anderson
- Projected
- 18–21
- Final
- 27–13
- Projected winner
- David Anderson
- Margin error
- 17.2
Sep 11, 2026
Columbiana vs. Hanoverton United
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 7–56
- Projected winner
- Hanoverton United
- Margin error
- 47.0
Sep 11, 2026
Columbia vs. Wellington
- Projected
- 26–17
- Final
- 49–18
- Projected winner
- Columbia
- Margin error
- 22.4
Sep 11, 2026
Cardinal vs. Leetonia
- Projected
- 16–20
- Final
- 0–36
- Projected winner
- Leetonia
- Margin error
- 31.9
Sep 11, 2026
Versailles vs. Marion Local
- Projected
- 18–27
- Final
- 3–27
- Projected winner
- Marion Local
- Margin error
- 14.2
Sep 11, 2026
Reading vs. Deer Park
- Projected
- 18–27
- Final
- 7–34
- Projected winner
- Deer Park
- Margin error
- 18.8
Sep 11, 2026
Preble Shawnee vs. Dixie
- Projected
- 19–21
- Final
- 60–19
- Projected winner
- Dixie
- Margin error
- 42.6
Sep 11, 2026
Meadowdale vs. North College Hill
- Projected
- 15–30
- Final
- 0–43
- Projected winner
- North College Hill
- Margin error
- 29.0
Sep 11, 2026
Madison Plains vs. Mechanicsburg
- Projected
- 24–21
- Final
- 0–41
- Projected winner
- Madison Plains
- Margin error
- 44.3
Sep 11, 2026
Middletown Madison vs. Dayton Christian
- Projected
- 16–26
- Final
- 7–40
- Projected winner
- Dayton Christian
- Margin error
- 23.3
Sep 11, 2026
Greenon vs. Triad
- Projected
- 22–19
- Final
- 41–7
- Projected winner
- Greenon
- Margin error
- 31.1
Sep 11, 2026
Finneytown vs. Madeira
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 6–55
- Projected winner
- Madeira
- Margin error
- 43.2
Sep 11, 2026
Bethel vs. Troy Christian
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 42–7
- Projected winner
- Troy Christian
- Margin error
- 40.2
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–25 | 6–13 | Lima Central Catholic | Lima Central Catholic | 5.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–16 | 44–12 | Colonel Crawford | Colonel Crawford | 24.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–24 | 7–56 | Mohawk | Mohawk | 45.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 27–22 | 35–13 | Bluffton | Bluffton | 16.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–26 | 38–7 | Delta | Archbold | 31.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 15–28 | 18–48 | Wickliffe | Wickliffe | 16.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–22 | 31–14 | Mathews | Pymatuning Valley | 17.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 17–26 | 34–7 | Rittman | Norwayne | 36.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–20 | 46–16 | Malvern | Mogadore | 32.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 26–19 | 27–7 | Mineral Ridge | Mineral Ridge | 13.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–26 | 16–54 | McDonald | McDonald | 32.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 27–18 | 21–16 | Hillsdale | Hillsdale | 4.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–21 | 27–13 | David Anderson | East Palestine | 17.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–24 | 7–56 | Hanoverton United | Hanoverton United | 47.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 26–17 | 49–18 | Columbia | Columbia | 22.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 16–20 | 0–36 | Leetonia | Leetonia | 31.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–27 | 3–27 | Marion Local | Marion Local | 14.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–27 | 7–34 | Deer Park | Deer Park | 18.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–21 | 60–19 | Dixie | Preble Shawnee | 42.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 15–30 | 0–43 | North College Hill | North College Hill | 29.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–21 | 0–41 | Madison Plains | Mechanicsburg | 44.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 16–26 | 7–40 | Dayton Christian | Dayton Christian | 23.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–19 | 41–7 | Greenon | Greenon | 31.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 17–23 | 6–55 | Madeira | Madeira | 43.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–24 | 42–7 | Troy Christian | Bethel | 40.2 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
