Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 11, 2026
Archbishop McNicholas vs. Roger Bacon
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 42–6
- Projected winner
- Roger Bacon
- Margin error
- 42.0
Sep 11, 2026
Vincent Warren vs. Hillsboro
- Projected
- 15–21
- Final
- 50–47
- Projected winner
- Hillsboro
- Margin error
- 8.1
Sep 11, 2026
Vinton County vs. Meigs
- Projected
- 26–18
- Final
- 24–35
- Projected winner
- Vinton County
- Margin error
- 19.1
Sep 11, 2026
Union Local vs. Harrison Central
- Projected
- 25–18
- Final
- 48–7
- Projected winner
- Union Local
- Margin error
- 34.0
Sep 11, 2026
St. Clairsville vs. Linsly
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 29–32
- Projected winner
- Linsly
- Margin error
- 2.7
Sep 11, 2026
Meadowbrook vs. Coshocton
- Projected
- 21–17
- Final
- 26–14
- Projected winner
- Meadowbrook
- Margin error
- 7.8
Sep 11, 2026
Hebron Lakewood vs. Licking Valley
- Projected
- 15–24
- Final
- 7–54
- Projected winner
- Licking Valley
- Margin error
- 38.7
Sep 11, 2026
Indian Creek vs. Weir
- Projected
- 22–12
- Final
- 42–7
- Projected winner
- Indian Creek
- Margin error
- 25.3
Sep 11, 2026
John Glenn vs. River View
- Projected
- 20–17
- Final
- 55–0
- Projected winner
- John Glenn
- Margin error
- 51.7
Sep 11, 2026
Heath vs. Washington CH
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 58–28
- Projected winner
- Washington CH
- Margin error
- 30.9
Sep 11, 2026
Fairfield Union vs. Logan Elm
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Logan Elm
- Margin error
- 45.0
Sep 11, 2026
Gallia Academy vs. Portsmouth
- Projected
- 16–17
- Final
- 0–34
- Projected winner
- Portsmouth
- Margin error
- 32.3
Sep 11, 2026
Circleville vs. Amanda-Clearcreek
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 21–0
- Projected winner
- Circleville
- Margin error
- 15.4
Sep 11, 2026
Carrollton vs. Claymont
- Projected
- 18–28
- Final
- 6–49
- Projected winner
- Claymont
- Margin error
- 32.6
Sep 11, 2026
Cambridge vs. Brooke
- Projected
- 16–18
- Final
- 6–56
- Projected winner
- Brooke
- Margin error
- 48.5
Sep 11, 2026
Bloom-Carroll vs. Liberty Union
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 42–13
- Projected winner
- Liberty Union
- Margin error
- 30.4
Sep 11, 2026
Wauseon vs. Evergreen
- Projected
- 22–16
- Final
- 45–14
- Projected winner
- Wauseon
- Margin error
- 25.9
Sep 11, 2026
Vermilion vs. Elyria Catholic
- Projected
- 24–20
- Final
- 20–17
- Projected winner
- Vermilion
- Margin error
- 1.7
Sep 11, 2026
Upper Sandusky vs. Carey
- Projected
- 24–20
- Final
- 14–49
- Projected winner
- Upper Sandusky
- Margin error
- 39.4
Sep 11, 2026
Rossford vs. Eastwood
- Projected
- 23–19
- Final
- 34–42
- Projected winner
- Rossford
- Margin error
- 11.7
Sep 11, 2026
Port Clinton vs. Ottawa Hills
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 45–13
- Projected winner
- Ottawa Hills
- Margin error
- 33.1
Sep 11, 2026
Perkins vs. Harvest Prep
- Projected
- 26–17
- Final
- 52–13
- Projected winner
- Perkins
- Margin error
- 30.3
Sep 11, 2026
Huron vs. Margaretta
- Projected
- 15–25
- Final
- 7–26
- Projected winner
- Margaretta
- Margin error
- 9.4
Sep 11, 2026
Galion vs. Shelby
- Projected
- 21–26
- Final
- 14–31
- Projected winner
- Shelby
- Margin error
- 11.9
Sep 11, 2026
Milan Edison vs. Northwood
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 31–34
- Projected winner
- Northwood
- Margin error
- 1.6
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–25 | 42–6 | Roger Bacon | Archbishop McNicholas | 42.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 15–21 | 50–47 | Hillsboro | Vincent Warren | 8.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 26–18 | 24–35 | Vinton County | Meigs | 19.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–18 | 48–7 | Union Local | Union Local | 34.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–21 | 29–32 | Linsly | Linsly | 2.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–17 | 26–14 | Meadowbrook | Meadowbrook | 7.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 15–24 | 7–54 | Licking Valley | Licking Valley | 38.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–12 | 42–7 | Indian Creek | Indian Creek | 25.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–17 | 55–0 | John Glenn | John Glenn | 51.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–21 | 58–28 | Washington CH | Heath | 30.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–22 | 42–0 | Logan Elm | Fairfield Union | 45.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 16–17 | 0–34 | Portsmouth | Portsmouth | 32.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–17 | 21–0 | Circleville | Circleville | 15.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–28 | 6–49 | Claymont | Claymont | 32.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 16–18 | 6–56 | Brooke | Brooke | 48.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–20 | 42–13 | Liberty Union | Bloom-Carroll | 30.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–16 | 45–14 | Wauseon | Wauseon | 25.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–20 | 20–17 | Vermilion | Vermilion | 1.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–20 | 14–49 | Upper Sandusky | Carey | 39.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–19 | 34–42 | Rossford | Eastwood | 11.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–24 | 45–13 | Ottawa Hills | Port Clinton | 33.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 26–17 | 52–13 | Perkins | Perkins | 30.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 15–25 | 7–26 | Margaretta | Margaretta | 9.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–26 | 14–31 | Shelby | Shelby | 11.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–24 | 31–34 | Northwood | Northwood | 1.6 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
