Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 11, 2026
Ravenna Southeast vs. Newton Falls
- Projected
- 18–26
- Final
- 35–27
- Projected winner
- Newton Falls
- Margin error
- 15.8
Sep 11, 2026
Sandy Valley vs. East Canton
- Projected
- 19–23
- Final
- 15–25
- Projected winner
- East Canton
- Margin error
- 6.4
Sep 11, 2026
Kirtland vs. Rootstown
- Projected
- 24–20
- Final
- 50–7
- Projected winner
- Kirtland
- Margin error
- 39.9
Sep 11, 2026
Garrettsville Garfield vs. LaBrae
- Projected
- 27–19
- Final
- 49–0
- Projected winner
- Garrettsville Garfield
- Margin error
- 40.9
Sep 11, 2026
Richmond Edison vs. Martins Ferry
- Projected
- 16–28
- Final
- 0–34
- Projected winner
- Martins Ferry
- Margin error
- 22.1
Sep 11, 2026
Crestwood vs. Independence
- Projected
- 17–22
- Final
- 53–8
- Projected winner
- Independence
- Margin error
- 49.6
Sep 11, 2026
Columbiana Crestview vs. Youngstown Liberty
- Projected
- 19–26
- Final
- 7–27
- Projected winner
- Youngstown Liberty
- Margin error
- 13.9
Sep 11, 2026
Champion vs. Brookfield
- Projected
- 25–18
- Final
- 7–40
- Projected winner
- Champion
- Margin error
- 39.0
Sep 11, 2026
Buckeye Local vs. Barnesville
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 7–48
- Projected winner
- Barnesville
- Margin error
- 33.8
Sep 11, 2026
Berkshire vs. Conneaut
- Projected
- 19–26
- Final
- 12–21
- Projected winner
- Conneaut
- Margin error
- 2.1
Sep 11, 2026
Bellaire vs. John Marshall
- Projected
- 16–23
- Final
- 40–37
- Projected winner
- John Marshall
- Margin error
- 9.8
Sep 11, 2026
Waynesville vs. Brookville
- Projected
- 24–21
- Final
- 31–0
- Projected winner
- Waynesville
- Margin error
- 28.0
Sep 11, 2026
Waverly vs. Lucasville Valley
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 42–25
- Projected winner
- Lucasville Valley
- Margin error
- 23.4
Sep 11, 2026
Valley View vs. Carlisle
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Carlisle
- Margin error
- 42.6
Sep 11, 2026
Unioto vs. Chillicothe Southeastern
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 49–12
- Projected winner
- Unioto
- Margin error
- 35.8
Sep 11, 2026
Taylor vs. Mariemont
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 7–17
- Projected winner
- Mariemont
- Margin error
- 3.7
Sep 11, 2026
Norwood vs. Summit Country Day
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 6–47
- Projected winner
- Summit Country Day
- Margin error
- 34.7
Sep 11, 2026
Dayton Northridge vs. Sidney Lehman
- Projected
- 18–17
- Final
- 21–6
- Projected winner
- Dayton Northridge
- Margin error
- 13.6
Sep 11, 2026
Milton-Union vs. Riverside
- Projected
- 18–22
- Final
- 14–34
- Projected winner
- Riverside
- Margin error
- 16.3
Sep 11, 2026
McClain vs. East Clinton
- Projected
- 25–16
- Final
- 49–8
- Projected winner
- McClain
- Margin error
- 32.0
Sep 11, 2026
Kenton Ridge vs. Springfield Shawnee
- Projected
- 26–18
- Final
- 40–0
- Projected winner
- Kenton Ridge
- Margin error
- 31.8
Sep 11, 2026
Indian Hill vs. Wyoming
- Projected
- 22–25
- Final
- 47–48
- Projected winner
- Wyoming
- Margin error
- 2.4
Sep 11, 2026
Graham Local vs. Urbana
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 34–42
- Projected winner
- Urbana
- Margin error
- 7.0
Sep 11, 2026
Eaton vs. Oakwood
- Projected
- 21–26
- Final
- 14–42
- Projected winner
- Oakwood
- Margin error
- 23.3
Sep 11, 2026
Clinton-Massie vs. Blanchester
- Projected
- 15–27
- Final
- 40–18
- Projected winner
- Blanchester
- Margin error
- 33.1
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–26 | 35–27 | Newton Falls | Ravenna Southeast | 15.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–23 | 15–25 | East Canton | East Canton | 6.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–20 | 50–7 | Kirtland | Kirtland | 39.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 27–19 | 49–0 | Garrettsville Garfield | Garrettsville Garfield | 40.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 16–28 | 0–34 | Martins Ferry | Martins Ferry | 22.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 17–22 | 53–8 | Independence | Crestwood | 49.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–26 | 7–27 | Youngstown Liberty | Youngstown Liberty | 13.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–18 | 7–40 | Champion | Brookfield | 39.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–25 | 7–48 | Barnesville | Barnesville | 33.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–26 | 12–21 | Conneaut | Conneaut | 2.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 16–23 | 40–37 | John Marshall | Bellaire | 9.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–21 | 31–0 | Waynesville | Waynesville | 28.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–25 | 42–25 | Lucasville Valley | Waverly | 23.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–22 | 42–0 | Carlisle | Valley View | 42.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–22 | 49–12 | Unioto | Unioto | 35.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–24 | 7–17 | Mariemont | Mariemont | 3.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 17–23 | 6–47 | Summit Country Day | Summit Country Day | 34.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–17 | 21–6 | Dayton Northridge | Dayton Northridge | 13.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–22 | 14–34 | Riverside | Riverside | 16.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–16 | 49–8 | McClain | McClain | 32.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 26–18 | 40–0 | Kenton Ridge | Kenton Ridge | 31.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–25 | 47–48 | Wyoming | Wyoming | 2.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–24 | 34–42 | Urbana | Urbana | 7.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–26 | 14–42 | Oakwood | Oakwood | 23.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 15–27 | 40–18 | Blanchester | Clinton-Massie | 33.1 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.