Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 12, 2026
Millersport vs. Tuscarawas Central Catholic
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 6–10
- Projected winner
- Tuscarawas Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 3.0
Sep 12, 2026
Delphos Jefferson vs. Fort Loramie
- Projected
- 25–22
- Final
- 24–28
- Projected winner
- Delphos Jefferson
- Margin error
- 7.4
Sep 12, 2026
Gilmour Academy vs. Mentor Lake Catholic
- Projected
- 23–19
- Final
- 7–14
- Projected winner
- Gilmour Academy
- Margin error
- 10.6
Sep 12, 2026
Cleveland Central Catholic vs. Warrensville Heights
- Projected
- 27–19
- Final
- 14–0
- Projected winner
- Cleveland Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 6.7
Sep 12, 2026
Buchtel vs. Lutheran East
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 8–6
- Projected winner
- Buchtel
- Margin error
- 1.8
Sep 12, 2026
Akron Garfield vs. Cuyahoga Valley CA
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 0–34
- Projected winner
- Cuyahoga Valley CA
- Margin error
- 32.0
Sep 11, 2026
Valley (Wetzel) vs. Clay-Battelle
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 20–34
- Projected winner
- Clay-Battelle
- Margin error
- 7.8
Sep 11, 2026
Farrell vs. Reynolds
- Projected
- 25–24
- Final
- 84–0
- Projected winner
- Farrell
- Margin error
- 82.5
Sep 11, 2026
Muskegon vs. River Rouge
- Projected
- 30–14
- Final
- 21–14
- Projected winner
- Muskegon
- Margin error
- 8.8
Sep 11, 2026
Warren De La Salle vs. Birmingham Brother Rice
- Projected
- 25–20
- Final
- 28–31
- Projected winner
- Warren De La Salle
- Margin error
- 7.3
Sep 11, 2026
Cathedral vs. Bishop Chatard
- Projected
- 20–29
- Final
- 16–14
- Projected winner
- Bishop Chatard
- Margin error
- 11.5
Sep 11, 2026
Covington Catholic vs. Dixie Heights
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 56–7
- Projected winner
- Dixie Heights
- Margin error
- 50.4
Sep 11, 2026
Cathedral Prep vs. Erie
- Projected
- 24–16
- Final
- 49–7
- Projected winner
- Cathedral Prep
- Margin error
- 34.8
Sep 11, 2026
Fayetteville-Perry vs. New Miami
- Projected
- 22–17
- Final
- 36–0
- Projected winner
- Fayetteville-Perry
- Margin error
- 30.7
Sep 11, 2026
Ansonia vs. Tri-County North
- Projected
- 26–19
- Final
- 48–19
- Projected winner
- Ansonia
- Margin error
- 22.1
Sep 11, 2026
Racine Southern vs. Franklin Furnace Green
- Projected
- 18–21
- Final
- 47–6
- Projected winner
- Franklin Furnace Green
- Margin error
- 43.6
Sep 11, 2026
South Gallia vs. Wahama
- Projected
- 19–27
- Final
- 6–63
- Projected winner
- Wahama
- Margin error
- 48.3
Sep 11, 2026
River vs. Magnolia
- Projected
- 28–14
- Final
- 40–8
- Projected winner
- River
- Margin error
- 17.2
Sep 11, 2026
Frontier vs. Shadyside
- Projected
- 26–24
- Final
- 21–43
- Projected winner
- Frontier
- Margin error
- 23.2
Sep 11, 2026
Fairfield Christian vs. Fisher Catholic
- Projected
- 17–22
- Final
- 21–32
- Projected winner
- Fisher Catholic
- Margin error
- 5.9
Sep 11, 2026
Reedsville Eastern vs. Beaver Eastern
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 42–20
- Projected winner
- Beaver Eastern
- Margin error
- 23.7
Sep 11, 2026
Conotton Valley vs. Strasburg-Franklin
- Projected
- 23–25
- Final
- 22–29
- Projected winner
- Strasburg-Franklin
- Margin error
- 5.2
Sep 11, 2026
Caldwell vs. Monroe Central
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 0–40
- Projected winner
- Monroe Central
- Margin error
- 35.2
Sep 11, 2026
Bridgeport vs. Federal Hocking
- Projected
- 19–18
- Final
- 46–6
- Projected winner
- Bridgeport
- Margin error
- 38.5
Sep 11, 2026
Bishop Rosecrans vs. Grove City Christian
- Projected
- 15–18
- Final
- 0–49
- Projected winner
- Grove City Christian
- Margin error
- 45.7
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | 20–21 | 6–10 | Tuscarawas Central Catholic | Tuscarawas Central Catholic | 3.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | 25–22 | 24–28 | Delphos Jefferson | Fort Loramie | 7.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | 23–19 | 7–14 | Gilmour Academy | Mentor Lake Catholic | 10.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | 27–19 | 14–0 | Cleveland Central Catholic | Cleveland Central Catholic | 6.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | 20–19 | 8–6 | Buchtel | Buchtel | 1.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | 19–22 | 0–34 | Cuyahoga Valley CA | Cuyahoga Valley CA | 32.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–24 | 20–34 | Clay-Battelle | Clay-Battelle | 7.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–24 | 84–0 | Farrell | Farrell | 82.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 30–14 | 21–14 | Muskegon | Muskegon | 8.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–20 | 28–31 | Warren De La Salle | Birmingham Brother Rice | 7.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–29 | 16–14 | Bishop Chatard | Cathedral | 11.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–23 | 56–7 | Dixie Heights | Covington Catholic | 50.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–16 | 49–7 | Cathedral Prep | Cathedral Prep | 34.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–17 | 36–0 | Fayetteville-Perry | Fayetteville-Perry | 30.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 26–19 | 48–19 | Ansonia | Ansonia | 22.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–21 | 47–6 | Franklin Furnace Green | Racine Southern | 43.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–27 | 6–63 | Wahama | Wahama | 48.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 28–14 | 40–8 | River | River | 17.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 26–24 | 21–43 | Frontier | Shadyside | 23.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 17–22 | 21–32 | Fisher Catholic | Fisher Catholic | 5.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–23 | 42–20 | Beaver Eastern | Reedsville Eastern | 23.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–25 | 22–29 | Strasburg-Franklin | Strasburg-Franklin | 5.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–24 | 0–40 | Monroe Central | Monroe Central | 35.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–18 | 46–6 | Bridgeport | Bridgeport | 38.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 15–18 | 0–49 | Grove City Christian | Grove City Christian | 45.7 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.