Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 11, 2026
Zane Trace vs. Chillicothe Huntington
- Projected
- 25–19
- Final
- 22–27
- Projected winner
- Zane Trace
- Margin error
- 10.3
Sep 11, 2026
Wellston vs. Trimble
- Projected
- 19–21
- Final
- 38–32
- Projected winner
- Trimble
- Margin error
- 8.3
Sep 11, 2026
Utica vs. Newcomerstown
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 48–34
- Projected winner
- Newcomerstown
- Margin error
- 20.2
Sep 11, 2026
South Point vs. Symmes Valley
- Projected
- 25–26
- Final
- 8–42
- Projected winner
- Symmes Valley
- Margin error
- 32.6
Sep 11, 2026
WL Ridgewood vs. Wheeling Central Catholic
- Projected
- 20–28
- Final
- 14–12
- Projected winner
- Wheeling Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 10.5
Sep 11, 2026
Bidwell River Valley vs. Nelsonville-York
- Projected
- 16–27
- Final
- 0–47
- Projected winner
- Nelsonville-York
- Margin error
- 36.3
Sep 11, 2026
Portsmouth West vs. Williamsburg
- Projected
- 25–21
- Final
- 12–28
- Projected winner
- Portsmouth West
- Margin error
- 19.2
Sep 11, 2026
Piketon vs. Westfall
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 42–21
- Projected winner
- Piketon
- Margin error
- 14.6
Sep 11, 2026
McDermott Northwest vs. Wheelersburg
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 0–49
- Projected winner
- Wheelersburg
- Margin error
- 46.3
Sep 11, 2026
New Lexington vs. Crooksville
- Projected
- 25–22
- Final
- 58–20
- Projected winner
- New Lexington
- Margin error
- 34.6
Sep 11, 2026
Morgan vs. West Muskingum
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 0–44
- Projected winner
- West Muskingum
- Margin error
- 37.8
Sep 11, 2026
Minford vs. Oak Hill
- Projected
- 20–16
- Final
- 26–6
- Projected winner
- Minford
- Margin error
- 16.0
Sep 11, 2026
Chesapeake vs. Coal Grove
- Projected
- 23–16
- Final
- 0–16
- Projected winner
- Chesapeake
- Margin error
- 22.9
Sep 11, 2026
Wynford vs. Buckeye Central
- Projected
- 21–19
- Final
- 41–6
- Projected winner
- Wynford
- Margin error
- 32.5
Sep 11, 2026
Willard vs. Lucas
- Projected
- 22–19
- Final
- 22–28
- Projected winner
- Willard
- Margin error
- 8.8
Sep 11, 2026
Waynedale vs. Smithville
- Projected
- 17–26
- Final
- 13–43
- Projected winner
- Smithville
- Margin error
- 21.1
Sep 11, 2026
Swanton vs. Liberty Center
- Projected
- 15–31
- Final
- 0–66
- Projected winner
- Liberty Center
- Margin error
- 49.7
Sep 11, 2026
Lakota vs. Johnstown Northridge
- Projected
- 25–19
- Final
- 22–23
- Projected winner
- Lakota
- Margin error
- 6.6
Sep 11, 2026
Genoa vs. Otsego
- Projected
- 23–19
- Final
- 14–35
- Projected winner
- Genoa
- Margin error
- 25.5
Sep 11, 2026
Fostoria vs. Oak Harbor
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 7–35
- Projected winner
- Oak Harbor
- Margin error
- 19.6
Sep 11, 2026
Elmwood vs. Arcadia
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 36–34
- Projected winner
- Arcadia
- Margin error
- 2.1
Sep 11, 2026
Chippewa vs. WS Northwestern
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 30–27
- Projected winner
- WS Northwestern
- Margin error
- 4.6
Sep 11, 2026
Brooklyn vs. Cuyahoga Heights
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 0–29
- Projected winner
- Cuyahoga Heights
- Margin error
- 23.8
Sep 11, 2026
Waterloo vs. BC Western Reserve
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 0–32
- Projected winner
- BC Western Reserve
- Margin error
- 29.0
Sep 11, 2026
Tuslaw vs. Orrville
- Projected
- 21–25
- Final
- 28–34
- Projected winner
- Orrville
- Margin error
- 1.9
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–19 | 22–27 | Zane Trace | Chillicothe Huntington | 10.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–21 | 38–32 | Trimble | Wellston | 8.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–25 | 48–34 | Newcomerstown | Utica | 20.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–26 | 8–42 | Symmes Valley | Symmes Valley | 32.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–28 | 14–12 | Wheeling Central Catholic | WL Ridgewood | 10.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 16–27 | 0–47 | Nelsonville-York | Nelsonville-York | 36.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–21 | 12–28 | Portsmouth West | Williamsburg | 19.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–17 | 42–21 | Piketon | Piketon | 14.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–22 | 0–49 | Wheelersburg | Wheelersburg | 46.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–22 | 58–20 | New Lexington | New Lexington | 34.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–24 | 0–44 | West Muskingum | West Muskingum | 37.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–16 | 26–6 | Minford | Minford | 16.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–16 | 0–16 | Chesapeake | Coal Grove | 22.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–19 | 41–6 | Wynford | Wynford | 32.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–19 | 22–28 | Willard | Lucas | 8.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 17–26 | 13–43 | Smithville | Smithville | 21.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 15–31 | 0–66 | Liberty Center | Liberty Center | 49.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–19 | 22–23 | Lakota | Johnstown Northridge | 6.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–19 | 14–35 | Genoa | Otsego | 25.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 17–25 | 7–35 | Oak Harbor | Oak Harbor | 19.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–22 | 36–34 | Arcadia | Elmwood | 2.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–23 | 30–27 | WS Northwestern | Chippewa | 4.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–23 | 0–29 | Cuyahoga Heights | Cuyahoga Heights | 23.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–22 | 0–32 | BC Western Reserve | BC Western Reserve | 29.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–25 | 28–34 | Orrville | Orrville | 1.9 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
