Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 2, 2026
Lakeside vs. Eastlake North
- Projected
- 15–28
- Final
- 24–56
- Projected winner
- Eastlake North
- Margin error
- 19.1
Oct 2, 2026
John Marshall vs. John Adams
- Projected
- 12–25
- Final
- 14–42
- Projected winner
- John Adams
- Margin error
- 15.4
Oct 2, 2026
Firestone vs. Buchtel
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 0–20
- Projected winner
- Buchtel
- Margin error
- 18.8
Oct 2, 2026
Cuyahoga Falls vs. Norton
- Projected
- 17–28
- Final
- 7–56
- Projected winner
- Norton
- Margin error
- 38.8
Oct 2, 2026
John Hay vs. University School
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 0–33
- Projected winner
- University School
- Margin error
- 26.8
Oct 2, 2026
Brush vs. Warrensville Heights
- Projected
- 24–18
- Final
- 35–21
- Projected winner
- Brush
- Margin error
- 8.3
Oct 2, 2026
Boardman vs. Warren G. Harding
- Projected
- 16–24
- Final
- 14–33
- Projected winner
- Warren G. Harding
- Margin error
- 11.5
Oct 2, 2026
Benedictine vs. Cardinal Mooney
- Projected
- 20–26
- Final
- 7–21
- Projected winner
- Cardinal Mooney
- Margin error
- 8.1
Oct 2, 2026
Bedford vs. Garfield Heights
- Projected
- 19–23
- Final
- 6–40
- Projected winner
- Garfield Heights
- Margin error
- 29.9
Oct 2, 2026
Austintown-Fitch vs. Massillon Perry
- Projected
- 29–17
- Final
- 62–14
- Projected winner
- Austintown-Fitch
- Margin error
- 36.0
Oct 2, 2026
Archbishop Hoban vs. Cincinnati Woodward
- Projected
- 23–16
- Final
- 46–0
- Projected winner
- Archbishop Hoban
- Margin error
- 39.2
Oct 2, 2026
Western Hills vs. Aiken
- Projected
- 22–16
- Final
- 6–38
- Projected winner
- Western Hills
- Margin error
- 38.8
Oct 2, 2026
West Clermont vs. Walnut Hills
- Projected
- 22–13
- Final
- 45–5
- Projected winner
- West Clermont
- Margin error
- 30.5
Oct 2, 2026
St. Xavier vs. Trinity
- Projected
- 22–27
- Final
- 0–41
- Projected winner
- Trinity
- Margin error
- 36.6
Oct 2, 2026
Mason vs. Princeton
- Projected
- 16–29
- Final
- 0–47
- Projected winner
- Princeton
- Margin error
- 33.6
Oct 2, 2026
Lebanon vs. Milford
- Projected
- 23–18
- Final
- 39–29
- Projected winner
- Lebanon
- Margin error
- 4.2
Oct 2, 2026
Hamilton vs. Oak Hills
- Projected
- 15–23
- Final
- 14–42
- Projected winner
- Oak Hills
- Margin error
- 20.3
Oct 2, 2026
Fairfield vs. Lakota East
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 35–31
- Projected winner
- Lakota East
- Margin error
- 9.7
Oct 2, 2026
Colerain vs. Sycamore
- Projected
- 22–14
- Final
- 41–23
- Projected winner
- Colerain
- Margin error
- 10.3
Oct 2, 2026
Moeller vs. Elder
- Projected
- 25–26
- Final
- 35–28
- Projected winner
- Elder
- Margin error
- 8.0
Oct 2, 2026
Westerville North vs. Westland
- Projected
- 15–27
- Final
- 12–22
- Projected winner
- Westland
- Margin error
- 2.0
Oct 2, 2026
Thomas Worthington vs. Olentangy Berlin
- Projected
- 18–21
- Final
- 7–31
- Projected winner
- Olentangy Berlin
- Margin error
- 21.1
Oct 2, 2026
Newark vs. Pickerington Central
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 19–44
- Projected winner
- Newark
- Margin error
- 25.6
Oct 2, 2026
Lancaster vs. Logan
- Projected
- 15–21
- Final
- 35–22
- Projected winner
- Logan
- Margin error
- 18.9
Oct 2, 2026
Hilliard Bradley vs. Hilliard Davidson
- Projected
- 24–18
- Final
- 13–10
- Projected winner
- Hilliard Bradley
- Margin error
- 2.8
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | 15–28 | 24–56 | Eastlake North | Eastlake North | 19.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 12–25 | 14–42 | John Adams | John Adams | 15.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 18–19 | 0–20 | Buchtel | Buchtel | 18.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 17–28 | 7–56 | Norton | Norton | 38.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 17–23 | 0–33 | University School | University School | 26.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–18 | 35–21 | Brush | Brush | 8.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 16–24 | 14–33 | Warren G. Harding | Warren G. Harding | 11.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–26 | 7–21 | Cardinal Mooney | Cardinal Mooney | 8.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–23 | 6–40 | Garfield Heights | Garfield Heights | 29.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 29–17 | 62–14 | Austintown-Fitch | Austintown-Fitch | 36.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–16 | 46–0 | Archbishop Hoban | Archbishop Hoban | 39.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–16 | 6–38 | Western Hills | Aiken | 38.8 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–13 | 45–5 | West Clermont | West Clermont | 30.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–27 | 0–41 | Trinity | Trinity | 36.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 16–29 | 0–47 | Princeton | Princeton | 33.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–18 | 39–29 | Lebanon | Lebanon | 4.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 15–23 | 14–42 | Oak Hills | Oak Hills | 20.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 18–23 | 35–31 | Lakota East | Fairfield | 9.7 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–14 | 41–23 | Colerain | Colerain | 10.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 25–26 | 35–28 | Elder | Moeller | 8.0 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 15–27 | 12–22 | Westland | Westland | 2.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 18–21 | 7–31 | Olentangy Berlin | Olentangy Berlin | 21.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–21 | 19–44 | Newark | Pickerington Central | 25.6 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 15–21 | 35–22 | Logan | Lancaster | 18.9 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–18 | 13–10 | Hilliard Bradley | Hilliard Bradley | 2.8 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
