Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 2, 2026
Groveport-Madison vs. Reynoldsburg
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 7–26
- Projected winner
- Groveport-Madison
- Margin error
- 21.2
Oct 2, 2026
Grove City vs. Westerville Central
- Projected
- 27–15
- Final
- 35–41
- Projected winner
- Grove City
- Margin error
- 18.1
Oct 2, 2026
Central Crossing vs. Pickerington North
- Projected
- 13–30
- Final
- 7–42
- Projected winner
- Pickerington North
- Margin error
- 18.2
Oct 2, 2026
Gahanna Lincoln vs. New Albany
- Projected
- 24–25
- Final
- 35–3
- Projected winner
- New Albany
- Margin error
- 32.4
Oct 2, 2026
Whitmer vs. Northview
- Projected
- 28–13
- Final
- 56–7
- Projected winner
- Whitmer
- Margin error
- 34.4
Oct 2, 2026
Start vs. Lima Senior
- Projected
- 16–27
- Final
- 12–43
- Projected winner
- Lima Senior
- Margin error
- 20.2
Oct 2, 2026
Springfield vs. Wayne
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 43–12
- Projected winner
- Wayne
- Margin error
- 37.8
Oct 2, 2026
Olentangy Liberty vs. Upper Arlington
- Projected
- 19–27
- Final
- 13–12
- Projected winner
- Upper Arlington
- Margin error
- 8.5
Oct 2, 2026
Middletown vs. Lakota West
- Projected
- 20–27
- Final
- 0–35
- Projected winner
- Lakota West
- Margin error
- 28.8
Oct 2, 2026
Marysville vs. Olentangy
- Projected
- 17–21
- Final
- 8–31
- Projected winner
- Olentangy
- Margin error
- 19.2
Oct 2, 2026
Fairmont vs. Northmont
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 27–0
- Projected winner
- Northmont
- Margin error
- 28.5
Oct 2, 2026
Findlay vs. Perrysburg
- Projected
- 23–27
- Final
- 6–31
- Projected winner
- Perrysburg
- Margin error
- 21.1
Oct 2, 2026
Dublin Jerome vs. Hilliard Darby
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 20–25
- Projected winner
- Dublin Jerome
- Margin error
- 7.9
Oct 2, 2026
Dublin Coffman vs. Olentangy Orange
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 12–28
- Projected winner
- Olentangy Orange
- Margin error
- 15.5
Oct 2, 2026
Delaware Hayes vs. Westerville South
- Projected
- 22–18
- Final
- 21–28
- Projected winner
- Delaware Hayes
- Margin error
- 10.9
Oct 2, 2026
Centerville vs. Miamisburg
- Projected
- 13–26
- Final
- 35–0
- Projected winner
- Miamisburg
- Margin error
- 47.8
Oct 2, 2026
Beavercreek vs. Springboro
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 17–21
- Projected winner
- Beavercreek
- Margin error
- 5.0
Oct 2, 2026
Stow-Munroe Falls vs. Wadsworth
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 14–35
- Projected winner
- Wadsworth
- Margin error
- 20.3
Oct 2, 2026
Lakewood St. Edward vs. St. Ignatius
- Projected
- 22–26
- Final
- 31–14
- Projected winner
- St. Ignatius
- Margin error
- 21.7
Oct 2, 2026
Solon vs. Nordonia
- Projected
- 17–27
- Final
- 14–44
- Projected winner
- Nordonia
- Margin error
- 19.4
Oct 2, 2026
Mentor vs. Strongsville
- Projected
- 25–21
- Final
- 30–56
- Projected winner
- Mentor
- Margin error
- 29.7
Oct 2, 2026
Medina vs. Hudson
- Projected
- 16–28
- Final
- 7–41
- Projected winner
- Hudson
- Margin error
- 22.4
Oct 2, 2026
Lorain vs. Shaker Heights
- Projected
- 21–15
- Final
- 35–0
- Projected winner
- Lorain
- Margin error
- 29.3
Oct 2, 2026
Massillon Jackson vs. Uniontown Lake
- Projected
- 28–18
- Final
- 37–20
- Projected winner
- Massillon Jackson
- Margin error
- 6.6
Oct 2, 2026
GlenOak vs. Uniontown Green
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 14–45
- Projected winner
- Uniontown Green
- Margin error
- 30.5
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–21 | 7–26 | Groveport-Madison | Reynoldsburg | 21.2 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 27–15 | 35–41 | Grove City | Westerville Central | 18.1 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 13–30 | 7–42 | Pickerington North | Pickerington North | 18.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–25 | 35–3 | New Albany | Gahanna Lincoln | 32.4 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 28–13 | 56–7 | Whitmer | Whitmer | 34.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 16–27 | 12–43 | Lima Senior | Lima Senior | 20.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 18–25 | 43–12 | Wayne | Springfield | 37.8 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–27 | 13–12 | Upper Arlington | Olentangy Liberty | 8.5 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–27 | 0–35 | Lakota West | Lakota West | 28.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 17–21 | 8–31 | Olentangy | Olentangy | 19.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–20 | 27–0 | Northmont | Fairmont | 28.5 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–27 | 6–31 | Perrysburg | Perrysburg | 21.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–20 | 20–25 | Dublin Jerome | Hilliard Darby | 7.9 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–21 | 12–28 | Olentangy Orange | Olentangy Orange | 15.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–18 | 21–28 | Delaware Hayes | Westerville South | 10.9 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 13–26 | 35–0 | Miamisburg | Centerville | 47.8 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–22 | 17–21 | Beavercreek | Springboro | 5.0 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–23 | 14–35 | Wadsworth | Wadsworth | 20.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–26 | 31–14 | St. Ignatius | Lakewood St. Edward | 21.7 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 17–27 | 14–44 | Nordonia | Nordonia | 19.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 25–21 | 30–56 | Mentor | Strongsville | 29.7 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 16–28 | 7–41 | Hudson | Hudson | 22.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 21–15 | 35–0 | Lorain | Lorain | 29.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 28–18 | 37–20 | Massillon Jackson | Massillon Jackson | 6.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–21 | 14–45 | Uniontown Green | Uniontown Green | 30.5 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
