Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 2, 2026
Alliance vs. Howland
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 39–14
- Projected winner
- Howland
- Margin error
- 26.7
Oct 2, 2026
Xenia vs. Tippecanoe
- Projected
- 18–29
- Final
- 0–34
- Projected winner
- Tippecanoe
- Margin error
- 23.3
Oct 2, 2026
Columbus West vs. Marion Franklin
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 26–22
- Projected winner
- Columbus West
- Margin error
- 2.3
Oct 2, 2026
Troy vs. Butler
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 45–31
- Projected winner
- Troy
- Margin error
- 13.1
Oct 2, 2026
Tecumseh vs. Kenton Ridge
- Projected
- 17–26
- Final
- 7–35
- Projected winner
- Kenton Ridge
- Margin error
- 19.2
Oct 2, 2026
Talawanda vs. Cincinnati Northwest
- Projected
- 24–25
- Final
- 35–26
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati Northwest
- Margin error
- 9.2
Oct 2, 2026
Stebbins vs. West Carrollton
- Projected
- 22–14
- Final
- 42–6
- Projected winner
- Stebbins
- Margin error
- 28.4
Oct 2, 2026
Sidney vs. Greenville
- Projected
- 19–17
- Final
- 40–41
- Projected winner
- Sidney
- Margin error
- 3.5
Oct 2, 2026
Loveland vs. Winton Woods
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 0–56
- Projected winner
- Winton Woods
- Margin error
- 51.0
Oct 2, 2026
LaSalle vs. Withrow
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 18–33
- Projected winner
- Withrow
- Margin error
- 13.5
Oct 2, 2026
Kings vs. Little Miami
- Projected
- 24–20
- Final
- 19–20
- Projected winner
- Kings
- Margin error
- 4.3
Oct 2, 2026
Harrison vs. Mount Healthy
- Projected
- 27–17
- Final
- 49–13
- Projected winner
- Harrison
- Margin error
- 26.4
Oct 2, 2026
Franklin Heights vs. Columbus Academy
- Projected
- 16–28
- Final
- 9–29
- Projected winner
- Columbus Academy
- Margin error
- 9.0
Oct 2, 2026
Fairborn vs. Piqua
- Projected
- 26–17
- Final
- 36–35
- Projected winner
- Fairborn
- Margin error
- 7.2
Oct 2, 2026
Trenton Edgewood vs. Ross
- Projected
- 23–19
- Final
- 42–21
- Projected winner
- Trenton Edgewood
- Margin error
- 16.7
Oct 2, 2026
Anderson vs. Turpin
- Projected
- 27–18
- Final
- 66–21
- Projected winner
- Anderson
- Margin error
- 35.9
Oct 2, 2026
Wooster vs. Dover
- Projected
- 16–27
- Final
- 22–44
- Projected winner
- Dover
- Margin error
- 11.1
Oct 2, 2026
Whitehall-Yearling vs. Bexley
- Projected
- 25–20
- Final
- 19–14
- Projected winner
- Whitehall-Yearling
- Margin error
- 0.2
Oct 2, 2026
Massillon Washington vs. Farrell
- Projected
- 26–25
- Final
- 1–0
- Projected winner
- Massillon Washington
- Margin error
- 0.6
Oct 2, 2026
Walnut Ridge vs. Eastmoor Academy
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 28–7
- Projected winner
- Eastmoor Academy
- Margin error
- 22.4
Oct 2, 2026
Mount Vernon vs. Licking Valley
- Projected
- 19–26
- Final
- 14–20
- Projected winner
- Licking Valley
- Margin error
- 0.3
Oct 2, 2026
Mifflin vs. Northland
- Projected
- 14–20
- Final
- 0–58
- Projected winner
- Northland
- Margin error
- 52.8
Oct 2, 2026
Marion Harding vs. Ontario
- Projected
- 15–29
- Final
- 12–27
- Projected winner
- Ontario
- Margin error
- 1.2
Oct 2, 2026
Licking Heights vs. Watkins Memorial
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 14–16
- Projected winner
- Watkins Memorial
- Margin error
- 2.7
Oct 2, 2026
Columbus Independence vs. Africentric
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 8–12
- Projected winner
- Africentric
- Margin error
- 3.4
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | 21–23 | 39–14 | Howland | Alliance | 26.7 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 18–29 | 0–34 | Tippecanoe | Tippecanoe | 23.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–20 | 26–22 | Columbus West | Columbus West | 2.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–23 | 45–31 | Troy | Troy | 13.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 17–26 | 7–35 | Kenton Ridge | Kenton Ridge | 19.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–25 | 35–26 | Cincinnati Northwest | Talawanda | 9.2 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–14 | 42–6 | Stebbins | Stebbins | 28.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–17 | 40–41 | Sidney | Greenville | 3.5 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 18–23 | 0–56 | Winton Woods | Winton Woods | 51.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 21–23 | 18–33 | Withrow | Withrow | 13.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–20 | 19–20 | Kings | Little Miami | 4.3 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 27–17 | 49–13 | Harrison | Harrison | 26.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 16–28 | 9–29 | Columbus Academy | Columbus Academy | 9.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 26–17 | 36–35 | Fairborn | Fairborn | 7.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–19 | 42–21 | Trenton Edgewood | Trenton Edgewood | 16.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 27–18 | 66–21 | Anderson | Anderson | 35.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 16–27 | 22–44 | Dover | Dover | 11.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 25–20 | 19–14 | Whitehall-Yearling | Whitehall-Yearling | 0.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 26–25 | 1–0 | Massillon Washington | Massillon Washington | 0.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 18–19 | 28–7 | Eastmoor Academy | Walnut Ridge | 22.4 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–26 | 14–20 | Licking Valley | Licking Valley | 0.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 14–20 | 0–58 | Northland | Northland | 52.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 15–29 | 12–27 | Ontario | Ontario | 1.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 18–23 | 14–16 | Watkins Memorial | Watkins Memorial | 2.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–20 | 8–12 | Africentric | Africentric | 3.4 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.