Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 2, 2026
Elyria vs. Amherst Steele
- Projected
- 14–23
- Final
- 10–21
- Projected winner
- Amherst Steele
- Margin error
- 2.0
Oct 2, 2026
Cleveland Heights vs. Painesville Riverside
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 18–21
- Projected winner
- Painesville Riverside
- Margin error
- 3.5
Oct 2, 2026
Canton McKinley vs. North Canton Hoover
- Projected
- 25–20
- Final
- 35–7
- Projected winner
- Canton McKinley
- Margin error
- 22.8
Oct 2, 2026
Brunswick vs. Euclid
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 15–6
- Projected winner
- Brunswick
- Margin error
- 2.9
Oct 2, 2026
Berea-Midpark vs. North Ridgeville
- Projected
- 23–18
- Final
- 43–13
- Projected winner
- Berea-Midpark
- Margin error
- 24.6
Oct 1, 2026
Indian Creek vs. Harrison Central
- Projected
- 22–17
- Final
- 68–27
- Projected winner
- Indian Creek
- Margin error
- 36.4
Oct 1, 2026
Ponitz vs. Thurgood Marshall
- Projected
- 18–17
- Final
- 24–16
- Projected winner
- Ponitz
- Margin error
- 7.6
Oct 1, 2026
Centennial vs. Harvest Prep
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 7–41
- Projected winner
- Harvest Prep
- Margin error
- 27.9
Oct 1, 2026
Steubenville vs. Ursuline
- Projected
- 25–23
- Final
- 40–44
- Projected winner
- Steubenville
- Margin error
- 5.6
Oct 1, 2026
Waite vs. Toledo Woodward
- Projected
- 22–15
- Final
- 49–14
- Projected winner
- Waite
- Margin error
- 27.3
Sep 26, 2026
North Adams (club) vs. Foxfire
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 14–12
- Projected winner
- North Adams (club)
- Margin error
- 0.3
Sep 26, 2026
Fisher Catholic vs. Miller
- Projected
- 24–13
- Final
- 41–28
- Projected winner
- Fisher Catholic
- Margin error
- 1.7
Sep 26, 2026
Fremont St. Joseph vs. Kennedy Catholic
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 52–12
- Projected winner
- Kennedy Catholic
- Margin error
- 45.8
Sep 26, 2026
David Anderson vs. Valley Christian
- Projected
- 21–16
- Final
- 28–14
- Projected winner
- David Anderson
- Margin error
- 8.6
Sep 26, 2026
New London vs. Norwalk St. Paul
- Projected
- 20–16
- Final
- 0–49
- Projected winner
- New London
- Margin error
- 53.5
Sep 26, 2026
St. Thomas Aquinas vs. Steubenville Catholic Central
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 24–47
- Projected winner
- Steubenville Catholic Central
- Margin error
- 21.6
Sep 26, 2026
Grand Valley vs. Ashtabula St. John
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 28–14
- Projected winner
- Ashtabula St. John
- Margin error
- 15.5
Sep 26, 2026
Thurgood Marshall vs. Meadowdale
- Projected
- 20–15
- Final
- 0–32
- Projected winner
- Thurgood Marshall
- Margin error
- 36.6
Sep 26, 2026
Cincinnati Woodward vs. Gamble Montessori
- Projected
- 13–27
- Final
- 6–32
- Projected winner
- Gamble Montessori
- Margin error
- 11.6
Sep 26, 2026
University School vs. Gilmour Academy
- Projected
- 26–18
- Final
- 25–18
- Projected winner
- University School
- Margin error
- 0.9
Sep 26, 2026
Akron North vs. Buchtel
- Projected
- 18–17
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- Akron North
- Margin error
- 43.1
Sep 26, 2026
Akron Garfield vs. Akron East
- Projected
- 16–23
- Final
- 6–36
- Projected winner
- Akron East
- Margin error
- 23.5
Sep 26, 2026
Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK
- Projected
- 18–17
- Final
- 66–0
- Projected winner
- Bedford
- Margin error
- 64.8
Sep 25, 2026
Wirt County vs. Wahama
- Projected
- 24–25
- Final
- 21–63
- Projected winner
- Wahama
- Margin error
- 40.2
Sep 25, 2026
Orchard Lake St. Mary vs. Birmingham Brother Rice
- Projected
- 27–22
- Final
- 48–20
- Projected winner
- Orchard Lake St. Mary
- Margin error
- 22.7
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | 14–23 | 10–21 | Amherst Steele | Amherst Steele | 2.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 17–23 | 18–21 | Painesville Riverside | Painesville Riverside | 3.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 25–20 | 35–7 | Canton McKinley | Canton McKinley | 22.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–17 | 15–6 | Brunswick | Brunswick | 2.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–18 | 43–13 | Berea-Midpark | Berea-Midpark | 24.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 22–17 | 68–27 | Indian Creek | Indian Creek | 36.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 18–17 | 24–16 | Ponitz | Ponitz | 7.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 17–23 | 7–41 | Harvest Prep | Harvest Prep | 27.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 25–23 | 40–44 | Steubenville | Ursuline | 5.6 | Missed | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 22–15 | 49–14 | Waite | Waite | 27.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | 22–20 | 14–12 | North Adams (club) | North Adams (club) | 0.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | 24–13 | 41–28 | Fisher Catholic | Fisher Catholic | 1.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | 19–25 | 52–12 | Kennedy Catholic | Fremont St. Joseph | 45.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | 21–16 | 28–14 | David Anderson | David Anderson | 8.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | 20–16 | 0–49 | New London | Norwalk St. Paul | 53.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | 19–20 | 24–47 | Steubenville Catholic Central | Steubenville Catholic Central | 21.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | 20–22 | 28–14 | Ashtabula St. John | Grand Valley | 15.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | 20–15 | 0–32 | Thurgood Marshall | Meadowdale | 36.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | 13–27 | 6–32 | Gamble Montessori | Gamble Montessori | 11.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | 26–18 | 25–18 | University School | University School | 0.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | 18–17 | 0–42 | Akron North | Buchtel | 43.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | 16–23 | 6–36 | Akron East | Akron East | 23.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | 18–17 | 66–0 | Bedford | Bedford | 64.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 24–25 | 21–63 | Wahama | Wahama | 40.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 27–22 | 48–20 | Orchard Lake St. Mary | Orchard Lake St. Mary | 22.7 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
