Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 21, 2026
Genoa vs. Archbold
- Projected
- 25–24
- Final
- 7–38
- Projected winner
- Genoa
- Margin error
- 31.6
Aug 21, 2026
Fostoria vs. Van Buren
- Projected
- 18–21
- Final
- 14–23
- Projected winner
- Van Buren
- Margin error
- 5.6
Aug 21, 2026
Elmwood vs. Lakota
- Projected
- 17–18
- Final
- 41–30
- Projected winner
- Lakota
- Margin error
- 11.7
Aug 21, 2026
Chippewa vs. East Canton
- Projected
- 17–21
- Final
- 23–6
- Projected winner
- East Canton
- Margin error
- 21.7
Aug 21, 2026
Lima Bath vs. Indian Lake
- Projected
- 26–20
- Final
- 43–54
- Projected winner
- Lima Bath
- Margin error
- 16.4
Aug 21, 2026
Benjamin Logan vs. Bluffton
- Projected
- 19–27
- Final
- 28–42
- Projected winner
- Bluffton
- Margin error
- 6.9
Aug 21, 2026
Tuslaw vs. Smithville
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 14–21
- Projected winner
- Smithville
- Margin error
- 5.2
Aug 21, 2026
Martins Ferry vs. Mount Gilead
- Projected
- 28–20
- Final
- 42–19
- Projected winner
- Martins Ferry
- Margin error
- 14.8
Aug 21, 2026
Grand Valley vs. Brooklyn
- Projected
- 23–13
- Final
- 47–14
- Projected winner
- Grand Valley
- Margin error
- 22.2
Aug 21, 2026
Richmond Edison vs. Coshocton
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 21–24
- Projected winner
- Coshocton
- Margin error
- 2.4
Aug 21, 2026
Crestwood vs. Mogadore
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 8–31
- Projected winner
- Mogadore
- Margin error
- 19.9
Aug 21, 2026
Conneaut vs. Cuyahoga Heights
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 20–13
- Projected winner
- Cuyahoga Heights
- Margin error
- 7.8
Aug 21, 2026
Bellaire vs. Buckeye Local
- Projected
- 22–15
- Final
- 43–13
- Projected winner
- Bellaire
- Margin error
- 22.6
Aug 21, 2026
Beachwood vs. Richmond Heights
- Projected
- 19–17
- Final
- 8–44
- Projected winner
- Beachwood
- Margin error
- 37.5
Aug 21, 2026
Washington CH vs. Mechanicsburg
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 20–32
- Projected winner
- Mechanicsburg
- Margin error
- 9.1
Aug 21, 2026
Valley View vs. Coldwater
- Projected
- 23–27
- Final
- 21–37
- Projected winner
- Coldwater
- Margin error
- 11.6
Aug 21, 2026
Urbana vs. Springfield Northeastern
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 49–0
- Projected winner
- Urbana
- Margin error
- 48.3
Aug 21, 2026
Shroder vs. Madeira
- Projected
- 22–19
- Final
- 8–47
- Projected winner
- Shroder
- Margin error
- 42.4
Aug 21, 2026
Dayton Northridge vs. St. Bernard-Elmwood Place
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 13–18
- Projected winner
- Dayton Northridge
- Margin error
- 6.4
Aug 21, 2026
Milton-Union vs. Carlisle
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 12–43
- Projected winner
- Carlisle
- Margin error
- 23.9
Aug 21, 2026
McClain vs. Adena
- Projected
- 19–18
- Final
- 37–8
- Projected winner
- McClain
- Margin error
- 28.2
Aug 21, 2026
Indian Hill vs. Roger Bacon
- Projected
- 27–21
- Final
- 35–14
- Projected winner
- Indian Hill
- Margin error
- 14.8
Aug 21, 2026
Graham Local vs. Kenton Ridge
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 34–24
- Projected winner
- Kenton Ridge
- Margin error
- 10.4
Aug 21, 2026
Clinton-Massie vs. Waynesville
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 17–20
- Projected winner
- Clinton-Massie
- Margin error
- 4.5
Aug 21, 2026
Vinton County vs. Waterford
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 0–36
- Projected winner
- Vinton County
- Margin error
- 37.5
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | 25–24 | 7–38 | Genoa | Archbold | 31.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–21 | 14–23 | Van Buren | Van Buren | 5.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–18 | 41–30 | Lakota | Elmwood | 11.7 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–21 | 23–6 | East Canton | Chippewa | 21.7 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 26–20 | 43–54 | Lima Bath | Indian Lake | 16.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–27 | 28–42 | Bluffton | Bluffton | 6.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–23 | 14–21 | Smithville | Smithville | 5.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 28–20 | 42–19 | Martins Ferry | Martins Ferry | 14.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–13 | 47–14 | Grand Valley | Grand Valley | 22.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–21 | 21–24 | Coshocton | Coshocton | 2.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–23 | 8–31 | Mogadore | Mogadore | 19.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–21 | 20–13 | Cuyahoga Heights | Conneaut | 7.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–15 | 43–13 | Bellaire | Bellaire | 22.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–17 | 8–44 | Beachwood | Richmond Heights | 37.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–24 | 20–32 | Mechanicsburg | Mechanicsburg | 9.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–27 | 21–37 | Coldwater | Coldwater | 11.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–22 | 49–0 | Urbana | Urbana | 48.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–19 | 8–47 | Shroder | Madeira | 42.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–22 | 13–18 | Dayton Northridge | St. Bernard-Elmwood Place | 6.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–25 | 12–43 | Carlisle | Carlisle | 23.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–18 | 37–8 | McClain | McClain | 28.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 27–21 | 35–14 | Indian Hill | Indian Hill | 14.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–23 | 34–24 | Kenton Ridge | Graham Local | 10.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–23 | 17–20 | Clinton-Massie | Waynesville | 4.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–22 | 0–36 | Vinton County | Waterford | 37.5 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.