Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 28, 2026
Cincinnati Hills CA vs. Versailles
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 10–20
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati Hills CA
- Margin error
- 13.0
Aug 28, 2026
Carlisle vs. Miami East
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 7–20
- Projected winner
- Miami East
- Margin error
- 10.8
Aug 28, 2026
Brookville vs. Springfield Shawnee
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 38–6
- Projected winner
- Brookville
- Margin error
- 30.9
Aug 28, 2026
Blanchester vs. Cincinnati Country Day
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 41–20
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati Country Day
- Margin error
- 26.2
Aug 28, 2026
West Muskingum vs. Fort Frye
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 20–42
- Projected winner
- West Muskingum
- Margin error
- 24.0
Aug 28, 2026
South Point vs. Racine Southern
- Projected
- 23–19
- Final
- 38–0
- Projected winner
- South Point
- Margin error
- 33.6
Aug 28, 2026
Utica vs. Danville
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 13–39
- Projected winner
- Danville
- Margin error
- 19.1
Aug 28, 2026
Bidwell River Valley vs. South Gallia
- Projected
- 16–24
- Final
- 6–12
- Projected winner
- South Gallia
- Margin error
- 2.9
Aug 28, 2026
Portsmouth vs. Portsmouth West
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- Portsmouth West
- Margin error
- 40.9
Aug 28, 2026
Piketon vs. Wellston
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 43–8
- Projected winner
- Wellston
- Margin error
- 36.4
Aug 28, 2026
Oak Hill vs. Beaver Eastern
- Projected
- 19–21
- Final
- 7–49
- Projected winner
- Beaver Eastern
- Margin error
- 39.6
Aug 28, 2026
Meigs vs. Symmes Valley
- Projected
- 19–26
- Final
- 14–55
- Projected winner
- Symmes Valley
- Margin error
- 34.3
Aug 28, 2026
Liberty Union vs. Lucasville Valley
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 24–30
- Projected winner
- Lucasville Valley
- Margin error
- 0.7
Aug 28, 2026
Johnstown vs. Centerburg
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 50–0
- Projected winner
- Johnstown
- Margin error
- 48.7
Aug 28, 2026
Coshocton vs. Tuscarawas Valley
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 13–35
- Projected winner
- Tuscarawas Valley
- Margin error
- 20.0
Aug 28, 2026
Harvest Prep vs. Marion Local
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 28–54
- Projected winner
- Marion Local
- Margin error
- 21.6
Aug 28, 2026
Chesapeake vs. Minford
- Projected
- 18–20
- Final
- 13–28
- Projected winner
- Minford
- Margin error
- 12.6
Aug 28, 2026
Alexander vs. Federal Hocking
- Projected
- 25–19
- Final
- 49–18
- Projected winner
- Alexander
- Margin error
- 24.2
Aug 28, 2026
Wynford vs. East Knox
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 0–34
- Projected winner
- Wynford
- Margin error
- 35.5
Aug 28, 2026
Swanton vs. Montpelier
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 7–25
- Projected winner
- Montpelier
- Margin error
- 17.2
Aug 28, 2026
Marion Pleasant vs. Triad
- Projected
- 19–23
- Final
- 51–14
- Projected winner
- Triad
- Margin error
- 40.8
Aug 28, 2026
Otsego vs. Tinora
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 21–14
- Projected winner
- Otsego
- Margin error
- 1.0
Aug 28, 2026
Orrville vs. Trinity
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 43–0
- Projected winner
- Orrville
- Margin error
- 42.2
Aug 28, 2026
WS Northwestern vs. Black River
- Projected
- 27–17
- Final
- 9–7
- Projected winner
- WS Northwestern
- Margin error
- 7.3
Aug 28, 2026
North Union vs. Waynesfield-Goshen
- Projected
- 25–21
- Final
- 48–0
- Projected winner
- North Union
- Margin error
- 43.8
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–20 | 10–20 | Cincinnati Hills CA | Versailles | 13.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–24 | 7–20 | Miami East | Miami East | 10.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–20 | 38–6 | Brookville | Brookville | 30.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–24 | 41–20 | Cincinnati Country Day | Blanchester | 26.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–22 | 20–42 | West Muskingum | Fort Frye | 24.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–19 | 38–0 | South Point | South Point | 33.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–24 | 13–39 | Danville | Danville | 19.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 16–24 | 6–12 | South Gallia | South Gallia | 2.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–20 | 0–42 | Portsmouth West | Portsmouth West | 40.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–24 | 43–8 | Wellston | Piketon | 36.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–21 | 7–49 | Beaver Eastern | Beaver Eastern | 39.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–26 | 14–55 | Symmes Valley | Symmes Valley | 34.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–24 | 24–30 | Lucasville Valley | Lucasville Valley | 0.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–22 | 50–0 | Johnstown | Johnstown | 48.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–23 | 13–35 | Tuscarawas Valley | Tuscarawas Valley | 20.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–24 | 28–54 | Marion Local | Marion Local | 21.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–20 | 13–28 | Minford | Minford | 12.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–19 | 49–18 | Alexander | Alexander | 24.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–21 | 0–34 | Wynford | East Knox | 35.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–22 | 7–25 | Montpelier | Montpelier | 17.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–23 | 51–14 | Triad | Marion Pleasant | 40.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–17 | 21–14 | Otsego | Otsego | 1.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–21 | 43–0 | Orrville | Orrville | 42.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 27–17 | 9–7 | WS Northwestern | WS Northwestern | 7.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–21 | 48–0 | North Union | North Union | 43.8 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
