Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 28, 2026
Norwood vs. Mariemont
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 6–49
- Projected winner
- Mariemont
- Margin error
- 39.8
Aug 28, 2026
Springfield Northwestern vs. Greenon
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 6–43
- Projected winner
- Greenon
- Margin error
- 31.2
Aug 28, 2026
McClain vs. McDermott Northwest
- Projected
- 26–16
- Final
- 34–7
- Projected winner
- McClain
- Margin error
- 16.9
Aug 28, 2026
Kenton Ridge vs. Dayton Northridge
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 41–6
- Projected winner
- Kenton Ridge
- Margin error
- 34.1
Aug 28, 2026
Graham Local vs. Milton-Union
- Projected
- 25–16
- Final
- 44–14
- Projected winner
- Graham Local
- Margin error
- 21.8
Aug 28, 2026
Clinton-Massie vs. Coldwater
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 6–14
- Projected winner
- Coldwater
- Margin error
- 1.8
Aug 28, 2026
Bethel-Tate vs. Dayton Christian
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 6–36
- Projected winner
- Bethel-Tate
- Margin error
- 31.5
Aug 28, 2026
Batavia vs. Taylor
- Projected
- 22–17
- Final
- 0–27
- Projected winner
- Batavia
- Margin error
- 32.4
Aug 28, 2026
Vincent Warren vs. Morgan
- Projected
- 16–24
- Final
- 28–21
- Projected winner
- Morgan
- Margin error
- 15.2
Aug 28, 2026
Vinton County vs. Paint Valley
- Projected
- 18–20
- Final
- 60–33
- Projected winner
- Paint Valley
- Margin error
- 29.0
Aug 28, 2026
St. Clairsville vs. Union Local
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 21–40
- Projected winner
- Union Local
- Margin error
- 14.0
Aug 28, 2026
Philo vs. New Lexington
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 14–36
- Projected winner
- Philo
- Margin error
- 23.5
Aug 28, 2026
Meadowbrook vs. Barnesville
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 14–47
- Projected winner
- Barnesville
- Margin error
- 29.8
Aug 28, 2026
Logan Elm vs. Westfall
- Projected
- 22–17
- Final
- 54–20
- Projected winner
- Logan Elm
- Margin error
- 28.9
Aug 28, 2026
Licking Valley vs. Amanda-Clearcreek
- Projected
- 23–19
- Final
- 40–7
- Projected winner
- Licking Valley
- Margin error
- 28.1
Aug 28, 2026
Hebron Lakewood vs. Maysville
- Projected
- 18–20
- Final
- 0–53
- Projected winner
- Maysville
- Margin error
- 51.8
Aug 28, 2026
Heath vs. Highland
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 14–6
- Projected winner
- Highland
- Margin error
- 9.6
Aug 28, 2026
Fairfield Union vs. Colonel Crawford
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 20–14
- Projected winner
- Colonel Crawford
- Margin error
- 13.5
Aug 28, 2026
Claymont vs. River View
- Projected
- 23–18
- Final
- 54–0
- Projected winner
- Claymont
- Margin error
- 49.2
Aug 28, 2026
Circleville vs. Washington CH
- Projected
- 18–22
- Final
- 28–26
- Projected winner
- Washington CH
- Margin error
- 6.4
Aug 28, 2026
Carrollton vs. Richmond Edison
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 23–6
- Projected winner
- Richmond Edison
- Margin error
- 18.1
Aug 28, 2026
Cambridge vs. John Glenn
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 13–41
- Projected winner
- Cambridge
- Margin error
- 33.7
Aug 28, 2026
Bexley vs. Worthington Christian
- Projected
- 17–26
- Final
- 12–31
- Projected winner
- Worthington Christian
- Margin error
- 9.7
Aug 28, 2026
Upper Sandusky vs. Mount Gilead
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 25–27
- Projected winner
- Upper Sandusky
- Margin error
- 9.1
Aug 28, 2026
Triway vs. Norwayne
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 38–13
- Projected winner
- Triway
- Margin error
- 23.4
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–24 | 6–49 | Mariemont | Mariemont | 39.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–23 | 6–43 | Greenon | Greenon | 31.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 26–16 | 34–7 | McClain | McClain | 16.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–20 | 41–6 | Kenton Ridge | Kenton Ridge | 34.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–16 | 44–14 | Graham Local | Graham Local | 21.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–24 | 6–14 | Coldwater | Coldwater | 1.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–19 | 6–36 | Bethel-Tate | Dayton Christian | 31.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–17 | 0–27 | Batavia | Taylor | 32.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 16–24 | 28–21 | Morgan | Vincent Warren | 15.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–20 | 60–33 | Paint Valley | Vinton County | 29.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–24 | 21–40 | Union Local | Union Local | 14.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–22 | 14–36 | Philo | New Lexington | 23.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–22 | 14–47 | Barnesville | Barnesville | 29.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–17 | 54–20 | Logan Elm | Logan Elm | 28.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–19 | 40–7 | Licking Valley | Licking Valley | 28.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–20 | 0–53 | Maysville | Maysville | 51.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–22 | 14–6 | Highland | Heath | 9.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–25 | 20–14 | Colonel Crawford | Fairfield Union | 13.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–18 | 54–0 | Claymont | Claymont | 49.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–22 | 28–26 | Washington CH | Circleville | 6.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–22 | 23–6 | Richmond Edison | Carrollton | 18.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–17 | 13–41 | Cambridge | John Glenn | 33.7 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–26 | 12–31 | Worthington Christian | Worthington Christian | 9.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–17 | 25–27 | Upper Sandusky | Mount Gilead | 9.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–20 | 38–13 | Triway | Triway | 23.4 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
