Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 28, 2026
Minster vs. Convoy Crestview
- Projected
- 26–16
- Final
- 37–0
- Projected winner
- Minster
- Margin error
- 28.0
Aug 28, 2026
Delphos Jefferson vs. Parkway
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 13–6
- Projected winner
- Parkway
- Margin error
- 7.9
Aug 28, 2026
Chillicothe Huntington vs. Berne Union
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 34–7
- Projected winner
- Berne Union
- Margin error
- 29.7
Aug 28, 2026
Dixie vs. Mississinawa Valley
- Projected
- 24–18
- Final
- 27–26
- Projected winner
- Dixie
- Margin error
- 4.5
Aug 28, 2026
Covington vs. New Bremen
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 7–40
- Projected winner
- New Bremen
- Margin error
- 32.3
Aug 28, 2026
Arcanum vs. Tri-County North
- Projected
- 17–27
- Final
- 43–12
- Projected winner
- Tri-County North
- Margin error
- 40.3
Aug 28, 2026
Anna vs. Fort Loramie
- Projected
- 27–18
- Final
- 12–13
- Projected winner
- Anna
- Margin error
- 10.3
Aug 28, 2026
Allen East vs. Fort Recovery
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 28–21
- Projected winner
- Fort Recovery
- Margin error
- 8.7
Aug 28, 2026
West Jefferson vs. Newark Catholic
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 14–16
- Projected winner
- Newark Catholic
- Margin error
- 1.4
Aug 28, 2026
Chillicothe Southeastern vs. Franklin Furnace Green
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 44–13
- Projected winner
- Franklin Furnace Green
- Margin error
- 32.4
Aug 28, 2026
Shenandoah vs. Bridgeport
- Projected
- 23–19
- Final
- 49–18
- Projected winner
- Shenandoah
- Margin error
- 26.2
Aug 28, 2026
Newcomerstown vs. Toronto
- Projected
- 24–21
- Final
- 20–27
- Projected winner
- Newcomerstown
- Margin error
- 9.9
Aug 28, 2026
Fredericktown vs. Johnstown Northridge
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 21–0
- Projected winner
- Johnstown Northridge
- Margin error
- 23.9
Aug 28, 2026
Fairland vs. Point Pleasant
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 33–7
- Projected winner
- Point Pleasant
- Margin error
- 27.6
Aug 28, 2026
Marion Elgin vs. Ridgedale
- Projected
- 25–17
- Final
- 54–6
- Projected winner
- Marion Elgin
- Margin error
- 39.9
Aug 28, 2026
Coal Grove vs. Adena
- Projected
- 18–20
- Final
- 8–12
- Projected winner
- Adena
- Margin error
- 1.2
Aug 28, 2026
Buckeye Trail vs. Crooksville
- Projected
- 17–22
- Final
- 6–35
- Projected winner
- Crooksville
- Margin error
- 24.3
Aug 28, 2026
Belpre vs. Sciotoville East
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 49–0
- Projected winner
- Belpre
- Margin error
- 43.5
Aug 28, 2026
Woodmore vs. Toledo Christian
- Projected
- 25–21
- Final
- 49–6
- Projected winner
- Woodmore
- Margin error
- 39.3
Aug 28, 2026
Wayne Trace vs. Spencerville
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 55–0
- Projected winner
- Spencerville
- Margin error
- 56.2
Aug 28, 2026
Van Buren vs. Arlington
- Projected
- 25–17
- Final
- 55–12
- Projected winner
- Van Buren
- Margin error
- 34.9
Aug 28, 2026
Seneca East vs. Monroeville
- Projected
- 26–16
- Final
- 28–12
- Projected winner
- Seneca East
- Margin error
- 6.6
Aug 28, 2026
Paulding vs. North Central
- Projected
- 24–19
- Final
- 46–0
- Projected winner
- Paulding
- Margin error
- 40.8
Aug 28, 2026
New London vs. Loudonville
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 13–55
- Projected winner
- Loudonville
- Margin error
- 37.4
Aug 28, 2026
Margaretta vs. Western Reserve
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 7–26
- Projected winner
- Western Reserve
- Margin error
- 16.9
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | 26–16 | 37–0 | Minster | Minster | 28.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–22 | 13–6 | Parkway | Delphos Jefferson | 7.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–24 | 34–7 | Berne Union | Chillicothe Huntington | 29.7 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–18 | 27–26 | Dixie | Dixie | 4.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–23 | 7–40 | New Bremen | New Bremen | 32.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–27 | 43–12 | Tri-County North | Arcanum | 40.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 27–18 | 12–13 | Anna | Fort Loramie | 10.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–24 | 28–21 | Fort Recovery | Allen East | 8.7 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–22 | 14–16 | Newark Catholic | Newark Catholic | 1.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–23 | 44–13 | Franklin Furnace Green | Chillicothe Southeastern | 32.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–19 | 49–18 | Shenandoah | Shenandoah | 26.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–21 | 20–27 | Newcomerstown | Toronto | 9.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–22 | 21–0 | Johnstown Northridge | Fredericktown | 23.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–19 | 33–7 | Point Pleasant | Fairland | 27.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–17 | 54–6 | Marion Elgin | Marion Elgin | 39.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–20 | 8–12 | Adena | Adena | 1.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–22 | 6–35 | Crooksville | Crooksville | 24.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–17 | 49–0 | Belpre | Belpre | 43.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–21 | 49–6 | Woodmore | Woodmore | 39.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–19 | 55–0 | Spencerville | Wayne Trace | 56.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–17 | 55–12 | Van Buren | Van Buren | 34.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 26–16 | 28–12 | Seneca East | Seneca East | 6.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–19 | 46–0 | Paulding | Paulding | 40.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–23 | 13–55 | Loudonville | Loudonville | 37.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–23 | 7–26 | Western Reserve | Western Reserve | 16.9 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
