Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 28, 2026
Bradford vs. Twin Valley South
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 28–8
- Projected winner
- Twin Valley South
- Margin error
- 20.7
Aug 28, 2026
Frontier vs. Magnolia
- Projected
- 25–15
- Final
- 45–14
- Projected winner
- Frontier
- Margin error
- 21.3
Aug 28, 2026
Fisher Catholic vs. Tuscarawas Central Catholic
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 28–22
- Projected winner
- Fisher Catholic
- Margin error
- 0.2
Aug 28, 2026
Reedsville Eastern vs. Miller
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 34–8
- Projected winner
- Miller
- Margin error
- 26.2
Aug 28, 2026
Fairfield Christian vs. Trimble
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- Trimble
- Margin error
- 41.6
Aug 28, 2026
Caldwell vs. Waterford
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 8–15
- Projected winner
- Waterford
- Margin error
- 6.8
Aug 28, 2026
Bishop Rosecrans vs. Conotton Valley
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 13–62
- Projected winner
- Conotton Valley
- Margin error
- 41.6
Aug 28, 2026
Lima Perry vs. Ridgemont
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Ridgemont
- Margin error
- 42.3
Aug 28, 2026
Leipsic vs. McComb
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 26–7
- Projected winner
- McComb
- Margin error
- 19.6
Aug 28, 2026
Mohawk vs. Cardington-Lincoln
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 56–14
- Projected winner
- Mohawk
- Margin error
- 41.2
Aug 28, 2026
Hardin Northern vs. North Baltimore
- Projected
- 16–27
- Final
- 18–56
- Projected winner
- North Baltimore
- Margin error
- 26.7
Aug 28, 2026
Edgerton vs. Hilltop
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 28–36
- Projected winner
- Hilltop
- Margin error
- 7.1
Aug 28, 2026
Cory-Rawson vs. Upper Scioto Valley
- Projected
- 20–18
- Final
- 0–36
- Projected winner
- Cory-Rawson
- Margin error
- 38.1
Aug 28, 2026
Ayersville vs. Patrick Henry
- Projected
- 16–24
- Final
- 14–33
- Projected winner
- Patrick Henry
- Margin error
- 10.8
Aug 28, 2026
Antwerp vs. Edon
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 12–35
- Projected winner
- Edon
- Margin error
- 17.4
Aug 28, 2026
Ada vs. Arcadia
- Projected
- 21–25
- Final
- 38–28
- Projected winner
- Arcadia
- Margin error
- 13.5
Aug 28, 2026
Norwalk St. Paul vs. Tiffin Calvert
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 14–10
- Projected winner
- Tiffin Calvert
- Margin error
- 4.1
Aug 28, 2026
Salineville Southern vs. Shadyside
- Projected
- 15–27
- Final
- 0–49
- Projected winner
- Shadyside
- Margin error
- 36.7
Aug 28, 2026
Malvern vs. McDonald
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 28–54
- Projected winner
- McDonald
- Margin error
- 25.5
Aug 28, 2026
Leetonia vs. Vanlue
- Projected
- 17–21
- Final
- 42–12
- Projected winner
- Vanlue
- Margin error
- 33.8
Aug 28, 2026
David Anderson vs. Lowellville
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 21–50
- Projected winner
- Lowellville
- Margin error
- 28.6
Aug 28, 2026
Buckeye Central vs. South Central
- Projected
- 25–19
- Final
- 14–20
- Projected winner
- Buckeye Central
- Margin error
- 11.6
Aug 28, 2026
Steubenville Catholic Central vs. Strasburg-Franklin
- Projected
- 15–26
- Final
- 0–28
- Projected winner
- Strasburg-Franklin
- Margin error
- 17.1
Aug 28, 2026
Springfield Northeastern vs. Riverside
- Projected
- 20–18
- Final
- 21–47
- Projected winner
- Springfield Northeastern
- Margin error
- 27.5
Aug 28, 2026
National Trail vs. Tri-Village
- Projected
- 24–21
- Final
- 7–38
- Projected winner
- National Trail
- Margin error
- 34.2
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–20 | 28–8 | Twin Valley South | Bradford | 20.7 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–15 | 45–14 | Frontier | Frontier | 21.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–17 | 28–22 | Fisher Catholic | Fisher Catholic | 0.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–20 | 34–8 | Miller | Reedsville Eastern | 26.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–20 | 0–42 | Trimble | Trimble | 41.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–24 | 8–15 | Waterford | Waterford | 6.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–25 | 13–62 | Conotton Valley | Conotton Valley | 41.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–20 | 42–0 | Ridgemont | Lima Perry | 42.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–24 | 26–7 | McComb | Leipsic | 19.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–20 | 56–14 | Mohawk | Mohawk | 41.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 16–27 | 18–56 | North Baltimore | North Baltimore | 26.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–21 | 28–36 | Hilltop | Hilltop | 7.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–18 | 0–36 | Cory-Rawson | Upper Scioto Valley | 38.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 16–24 | 14–33 | Patrick Henry | Patrick Henry | 10.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–25 | 12–35 | Edon | Edon | 17.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–25 | 38–28 | Arcadia | Ada | 13.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–20 | 14–10 | Tiffin Calvert | Norwalk St. Paul | 4.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 15–27 | 0–49 | Shadyside | Shadyside | 36.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–23 | 28–54 | McDonald | McDonald | 25.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–21 | 42–12 | Vanlue | Leetonia | 33.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–22 | 21–50 | Lowellville | Lowellville | 28.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–19 | 14–20 | Buckeye Central | South Central | 11.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 15–26 | 0–28 | Strasburg-Franklin | Strasburg-Franklin | 17.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–18 | 21–47 | Springfield Northeastern | Riverside | 27.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–21 | 7–38 | National Trail | Tri-Village | 34.2 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
