Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 28, 2026
Port Clinton vs. Fostoria
- Projected
- 26–17
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Port Clinton
- Margin error
- 33.7
Aug 28, 2026
Huron vs. Hopewell-Loudon
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 0–37
- Projected winner
- Hopewell-Loudon
- Margin error
- 28.8
Aug 28, 2026
Galion vs. Carey
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 21–17
- Projected winner
- Carey
- Margin error
- 4.6
Aug 28, 2026
Firelands vs. Vermilion
- Projected
- 22–19
- Final
- 7–41
- Projected winner
- Firelands
- Margin error
- 37.3
Aug 28, 2026
Milan Edison vs. Bluffton
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 7–42
- Projected winner
- Bluffton
- Margin error
- 28.7
Aug 28, 2026
Bellevue vs. Wauseon
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 42–21
- Projected winner
- Bellevue
- Margin error
- 19.4
Aug 28, 2026
Woodridge vs. Brookside
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 55–20
- Projected winner
- Woodridge
- Margin error
- 34.1
Aug 28, 2026
Cleveland VASJ vs. Taft
- Projected
- 23–16
- Final
- 47–6
- Projected winner
- Cleveland VASJ
- Margin error
- 34.1
Aug 28, 2026
Struthers vs. Warren JFK
- Projected
- 18–22
- Final
- 6–18
- Projected winner
- Warren JFK
- Margin error
- 8.7
Aug 28, 2026
Shaw vs. WL Ridgewood
- Projected
- 25–18
- Final
- 16–34
- Projected winner
- Shaw
- Margin error
- 25.7
Aug 28, 2026
Poland Seminary vs. Kirtland
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 34–36
- Projected winner
- Kirtland
- Margin error
- 5.0
Aug 28, 2026
Lakeview vs. Columbiana Crestview
- Projected
- 19–21
- Final
- 14–34
- Projected winner
- Columbiana Crestview
- Margin error
- 17.7
Aug 28, 2026
Hawken vs. Lutheran West
- Projected
- 22–18
- Final
- 36–6
- Projected winner
- Hawken
- Margin error
- 26.4
Aug 28, 2026
Girard vs. Linsly
- Projected
- 26–17
- Final
- 56–14
- Projected winner
- Girard
- Margin error
- 33.4
Aug 28, 2026
Fairless vs. Waynedale
- Projected
- 26–17
- Final
- 48–6
- Projected winner
- Fairless
- Margin error
- 32.1
Aug 28, 2026
East Liverpool vs. Indian Creek
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 48–14
- Projected winner
- Indian Creek
- Margin error
- 42.0
Aug 28, 2026
Chagrin Falls vs. Pepper Pike Orange
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 26–12
- Projected winner
- Pepper Pike Orange
- Margin error
- 14.7
Aug 28, 2026
Canton South vs. Cuyahoga Valley CA
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 7–49
- Projected winner
- Cuyahoga Valley CA
- Margin error
- 40.4
Aug 28, 2026
St. Marys Memorial vs. Lima Bath
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 35–14
- Projected winner
- Lima Bath
- Margin error
- 21.4
Aug 28, 2026
Lima Shawnee vs. Kenton
- Projected
- 21–19
- Final
- 30–6
- Projected winner
- Lima Shawnee
- Margin error
- 21.2
Aug 28, 2026
Ponitz vs. North College Hill
- Projected
- 19–21
- Final
- 0–46
- Projected winner
- North College Hill
- Margin error
- 44.3
Aug 28, 2026
Ross vs. Thurgood Marshall
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 57–0
- Projected winner
- Thurgood Marshall
- Margin error
- 57.4
Aug 28, 2026
Cincinnati Northwest vs. Reading
- Projected
- 23–16
- Final
- 32–0
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati Northwest
- Margin error
- 25.1
Aug 28, 2026
New Richmond vs. Williamsburg
- Projected
- 26–14
- Final
- 14–34
- Projected winner
- New Richmond
- Margin error
- 31.8
Aug 28, 2026
Hughes vs. Mount Healthy
- Projected
- 27–14
- Final
- 28–18
- Projected winner
- Hughes
- Margin error
- 2.6
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | 26–17 | 42–0 | Port Clinton | Port Clinton | 33.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–25 | 0–37 | Hopewell-Loudon | Hopewell-Loudon | 28.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–21 | 21–17 | Carey | Galion | 4.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–19 | 7–41 | Firelands | Vermilion | 37.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–24 | 7–42 | Bluffton | Bluffton | 28.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–20 | 42–21 | Bellevue | Bellevue | 19.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–21 | 55–20 | Woodridge | Woodridge | 34.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–16 | 47–6 | Cleveland VASJ | Cleveland VASJ | 34.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–22 | 6–18 | Warren JFK | Warren JFK | 8.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–18 | 16–34 | Shaw | WL Ridgewood | 25.7 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–25 | 34–36 | Kirtland | Kirtland | 5.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–21 | 14–34 | Columbiana Crestview | Columbiana Crestview | 17.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–18 | 36–6 | Hawken | Hawken | 26.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 26–17 | 56–14 | Girard | Girard | 33.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 26–17 | 48–6 | Fairless | Fairless | 32.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–25 | 48–14 | Indian Creek | East Liverpool | 42.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–22 | 26–12 | Pepper Pike Orange | Chagrin Falls | 14.7 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–22 | 7–49 | Cuyahoga Valley CA | Cuyahoga Valley CA | 40.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–22 | 35–14 | Lima Bath | St. Marys Memorial | 21.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–19 | 30–6 | Lima Shawnee | Lima Shawnee | 21.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–21 | 0–46 | North College Hill | North College Hill | 44.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–20 | 57–0 | Thurgood Marshall | Ross | 57.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–16 | 32–0 | Cincinnati Northwest | Cincinnati Northwest | 25.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 26–14 | 14–34 | New Richmond | Williamsburg | 31.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 27–14 | 28–18 | Hughes | Hughes | 2.6 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.