Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 4, 2026
Massillon Jackson vs. Wadsworth
- Projected
- 24–21
- Final
- 17–19
- Projected winner
- Massillon Jackson
- Margin error
- 4.9
Sep 4, 2026
Euclid vs. Toledo St. John's
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 6–32
- Projected winner
- Toledo St. John's
- Margin error
- 20.6
Sep 4, 2026
Elyria vs. Barberton
- Projected
- 18–21
- Final
- 0–35
- Projected winner
- Barberton
- Margin error
- 32.1
Sep 4, 2026
Canton McKinley vs. Sandusky
- Projected
- 22–18
- Final
- 53–7
- Projected winner
- Canton McKinley
- Margin error
- 42.9
Sep 4, 2026
Brunswick vs. Medina
- Projected
- 25–16
- Final
- 44–36
- Projected winner
- Brunswick
- Margin error
- 0.8
Sep 4, 2026
Berea-Midpark vs. Brecksville
- Projected
- 28–15
- Final
- 26–13
- Projected winner
- Berea-Midpark
- Margin error
- 0.6
Sep 3, 2026
Richmond Edison vs. Monroe Central
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 14–13
- Projected winner
- Monroe Central
- Margin error
- 7.3
Sep 3, 2026
Hughes vs. Roger Bacon
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 30–27
- Projected winner
- Hughes
- Margin error
- 4.2
Sep 3, 2026
Belmont vs. Columbus South
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 34–35
- Projected winner
- Columbus South
- Margin error
- 0.4
Sep 3, 2026
Northland vs. Africentric
- Projected
- 22–16
- Final
- 12–8
- Projected winner
- Northland
- Margin error
- 2.9
Aug 29, 2026
Gamble Montessori vs. Millersport
- Projected
- 24–21
- Final
- 46–13
- Projected winner
- Gamble Montessori
- Margin error
- 30.1
Aug 29, 2026
Elyria vs. Lorain
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 22–42
- Projected winner
- Lorain
- Margin error
- 19.8
Aug 29, 2026
Lima Central Catholic vs. Delphos St. John's
- Projected
- 25–20
- Final
- 41–0
- Projected winner
- Lima Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 36.1
Aug 29, 2026
Fairport Harding vs. Ashtabula St. John
- Projected
- 22–18
- Final
- 0–33
- Projected winner
- Fairport Harding
- Margin error
- 36.9
Aug 29, 2026
Warrensville Heights vs. Cleveland JFK
- Projected
- 18–20
- Final
- 57–0
- Projected winner
- Cleveland JFK
- Margin error
- 59.2
Aug 29, 2026
Eastmoor Academy vs. Cincinnati College Prep
- Projected
- 16–25
- Final
- 12–38
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati College Prep
- Margin error
- 17.5
Aug 29, 2026
Akron Garfield vs. Revere
- Projected
- 21–18
- Final
- 12–28
- Projected winner
- Akron Garfield
- Margin error
- 18.3
Aug 29, 2026
John Marshall vs. Rocky River
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 0–63
- Projected winner
- Rocky River
- Margin error
- 56.8
Aug 28, 2026
Brooklyn vs. Willard
- Projected
- 18–22
- Final
- 0–41
- Projected winner
- Willard
- Margin error
- 37.2
Aug 28, 2026
Greenup County vs. Russell
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 22–28
- Projected winner
- Russell
- Margin error
- 4.2
Aug 28, 2026
Wheeling Central Catholic vs. Perry Traditional Academy
- Projected
- 26–15
- Final
- 50–8
- Projected winner
- Wheeling Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 30.3
Aug 28, 2026
Highlands vs. Cooper
- Projected
- 25–23
- Final
- 45–6
- Projected winner
- Highlands
- Margin error
- 37.9
Aug 28, 2026
Sidney Lehman vs. Southeastern Local
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 8–14
- Projected winner
- Southeastern Local
- Margin error
- 0.0
Aug 28, 2026
Fayetteville-Perry vs. Portsmouth Notre Dame
- Projected
- 25–16
- Final
- 6–27
- Projected winner
- Fayetteville-Perry
- Margin error
- 29.5
Aug 28, 2026
Springfield Catholic Central vs. Troy Christian
- Projected
- 19–23
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- Troy Christian
- Margin error
- 37.4
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | 24–21 | 17–19 | Massillon Jackson | Wadsworth | 4.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 19–24 | 6–32 | Toledo St. John's | Toledo St. John's | 20.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 18–21 | 0–35 | Barberton | Barberton | 32.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–18 | 53–7 | Canton McKinley | Canton McKinley | 42.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 25–16 | 44–36 | Brunswick | Brunswick | 0.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 28–15 | 26–13 | Berea-Midpark | Berea-Midpark | 0.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | 18–25 | 14–13 | Monroe Central | Richmond Edison | 7.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | 24–17 | 30–27 | Hughes | Hughes | 4.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | 23–24 | 34–35 | Columbus South | Columbus South | 0.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | 22–16 | 12–8 | Northland | Northland | 2.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | 24–21 | 46–13 | Gamble Montessori | Gamble Montessori | 30.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | 19–20 | 22–42 | Lorain | Lorain | 19.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | 25–20 | 41–0 | Lima Central Catholic | Lima Central Catholic | 36.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | 22–18 | 0–33 | Fairport Harding | Ashtabula St. John | 36.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | 18–20 | 57–0 | Cleveland JFK | Warrensville Heights | 59.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | 16–25 | 12–38 | Cincinnati College Prep | Cincinnati College Prep | 17.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | 21–18 | 12–28 | Akron Garfield | Revere | 18.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | 17–24 | 0–63 | Rocky River | Rocky River | 56.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–22 | 0–41 | Willard | Willard | 37.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–24 | 22–28 | Russell | Russell | 4.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 26–15 | 50–8 | Wheeling Central Catholic | Wheeling Central Catholic | 30.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–23 | 45–6 | Highlands | Highlands | 37.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–24 | 8–14 | Southeastern Local | Southeastern Local | 0.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–16 | 6–27 | Fayetteville-Perry | Portsmouth Notre Dame | 29.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–23 | 0–42 | Troy Christian | Troy Christian | 37.4 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.