Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 4, 2026
Westlake vs. Warrensville Heights
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 8–24
- Projected winner
- Westlake
- Margin error
- 19.8
Sep 4, 2026
Valley Forge vs. Revere
- Projected
- 17–22
- Final
- 0–46
- Projected winner
- Revere
- Margin error
- 41.0
Sep 4, 2026
Northview vs. Liberty-Benton
- Projected
- 19–18
- Final
- 13–49
- Projected winner
- Northview
- Margin error
- 36.7
Sep 4, 2026
Toledo St. Francis vs. Perkins
- Projected
- 17–27
- Final
- 0–23
- Projected winner
- Perkins
- Margin error
- 13.8
Sep 4, 2026
North Ridgeville vs. North Royalton
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 42–49
- Projected winner
- North Royalton
- Margin error
- 4.5
Sep 4, 2026
North Olmsted vs. Uniontown Green
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 14–42
- Projected winner
- Uniontown Green
- Margin error
- 26.0
Sep 4, 2026
Normandy vs. Geneva
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- Geneva
- Margin error
- 35.0
Sep 4, 2026
Midview vs. Elyria Catholic
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 28–14
- Projected winner
- Midview
- Margin error
- 13.4
Sep 4, 2026
Lakewood vs. hARVEY
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 42–36
- Projected winner
- hARVEY
- Margin error
- 9.3
Sep 4, 2026
Oregon Clay vs. Bowling Green
- Projected
- 25–17
- Final
- 62–0
- Projected winner
- Oregon Clay
- Margin error
- 53.8
Sep 4, 2026
Bowsher vs. Bluffton
- Projected
- 16–25
- Final
- 12–56
- Projected winner
- Bluffton
- Margin error
- 34.7
Sep 4, 2026
Avon Lake vs. Medina Highland
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 20–55
- Projected winner
- Medina Highland
- Margin error
- 29.1
Sep 4, 2026
Anthony Wayne vs. Napoleon
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 33–12
- Projected winner
- Napoleon
- Margin error
- 21.6
Sep 4, 2026
Warren G. Harding vs. Massillon Perry
- Projected
- 17–26
- Final
- 34–7
- Projected winner
- Massillon Perry
- Margin error
- 36.0
Sep 4, 2026
Walsh Jesuit vs. Toledo Central Catholic
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 38–25
- Projected winner
- Toledo Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 15.9
Sep 4, 2026
Eastlake North vs. University School
- Projected
- 22–25
- Final
- 27–8
- Projected winner
- University School
- Margin error
- 21.1
Sep 4, 2026
Nordonia vs. Cleveland VASJ
- Projected
- 26–21
- Final
- 41–39
- Projected winner
- Nordonia
- Margin error
- 2.6
Sep 4, 2026
Maple Heights vs. Beechcroft
- Projected
- 24–18
- Final
- 52–18
- Projected winner
- Maple Heights
- Margin error
- 28.4
Sep 4, 2026
Madison vs. Holy Name
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 13–16
- Projected winner
- Madison
- Margin error
- 5.8
Sep 4, 2026
Lakeside vs. Rhodes
- Projected
- 21–19
- Final
- 6–21
- Projected winner
- Lakeside
- Margin error
- 16.3
Sep 4, 2026
Hudson vs. Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary
- Projected
- 27–13
- Final
- 54–13
- Projected winner
- Hudson
- Margin error
- 27.1
Sep 4, 2026
Akron Garfield vs. Copley
- Projected
- 15–26
- Final
- 6–43
- Projected winner
- Copley
- Margin error
- 26.3
Sep 4, 2026
Garfield Heights vs. North Canton Hoover
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 22–15
- Projected winner
- Garfield Heights
- Margin error
- 5.2
Sep 4, 2026
Ellet vs. Kent Roosevelt
- Projected
- 18–21
- Final
- 7–29
- Projected winner
- Kent Roosevelt
- Margin error
- 18.8
Sep 4, 2026
Cuyahoga Falls vs. Ravenna Southeast
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 28–21
- Projected winner
- Cuyahoga Falls
- Margin error
- 4.4
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–20 | 8–24 | Westlake | Warrensville Heights | 19.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–22 | 0–46 | Revere | Revere | 41.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 19–18 | 13–49 | Northview | Liberty-Benton | 36.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–27 | 0–23 | Perkins | Perkins | 13.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–23 | 42–49 | North Royalton | North Royalton | 4.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–22 | 14–42 | Uniontown Green | Uniontown Green | 26.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–23 | 0–42 | Geneva | Geneva | 35.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–21 | 28–14 | Midview | Midview | 13.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 19–22 | 42–36 | hARVEY | Lakewood | 9.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 25–17 | 62–0 | Oregon Clay | Oregon Clay | 53.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 16–25 | 12–56 | Bluffton | Bluffton | 34.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–23 | 20–55 | Medina Highland | Medina Highland | 29.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 19–20 | 33–12 | Napoleon | Anthony Wayne | 21.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–26 | 34–7 | Massillon Perry | Warren G. Harding | 36.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–24 | 38–25 | Toledo Central Catholic | Walsh Jesuit | 15.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–25 | 27–8 | University School | Eastlake North | 21.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 26–21 | 41–39 | Nordonia | Nordonia | 2.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 24–18 | 52–18 | Maple Heights | Maple Heights | 28.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–20 | 13–16 | Madison | Holy Name | 5.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–19 | 6–21 | Lakeside | Rhodes | 16.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 27–13 | 54–13 | Hudson | Hudson | 27.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 15–26 | 6–43 | Copley | Copley | 26.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–21 | 22–15 | Garfield Heights | Garfield Heights | 5.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 18–21 | 7–29 | Kent Roosevelt | Kent Roosevelt | 18.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–20 | 28–21 | Cuyahoga Falls | Cuyahoga Falls | 4.4 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
