Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 18, 2026
Mentor vs. Painesville Riverside
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 35–14
- Projected winner
- Mentor
- Margin error
- 17.6
Sep 18, 2026
Medina vs. Medina Highland
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 0–47
- Projected winner
- Medina Highland
- Margin error
- 44.7
Sep 18, 2026
Massillon Jackson vs. Uniontown Green
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 16–10
- Projected winner
- Massillon Jackson
- Margin error
- 4.6
Sep 18, 2026
GlenOak vs. Uniontown Lake
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 7–37
- Projected winner
- Uniontown Lake
- Margin error
- 29.5
Sep 18, 2026
Euclid vs. Strongsville
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 7–35
- Projected winner
- Strongsville
- Margin error
- 27.2
Sep 18, 2026
Elyria vs. North Ridgeville
- Projected
- 14–22
- Final
- 12–42
- Projected winner
- North Ridgeville
- Margin error
- 22.2
Sep 18, 2026
Canton McKinley vs. Massillon Perry
- Projected
- 26–20
- Final
- 32–0
- Projected winner
- Canton McKinley
- Margin error
- 26.3
Sep 18, 2026
Cleveland Heights vs. Lorain
- Projected
- 14–23
- Final
- 41–13
- Projected winner
- Lorain
- Margin error
- 37.3
Sep 18, 2026
Brunswick vs. Shaker Heights
- Projected
- 24–14
- Final
- 31–14
- Projected winner
- Brunswick
- Margin error
- 6.9
Sep 18, 2026
Berea-Midpark vs. Midview
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 40–26
- Projected winner
- Berea-Midpark
- Margin error
- 10.6
Sep 17, 2026
McDowell vs. Erie
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 63–6
- Projected winner
- McDowell
- Margin error
- 50.1
Sep 17, 2026
Barnesville vs. Monroe Central
- Projected
- 27–21
- Final
- 48–6
- Projected winner
- Barnesville
- Margin error
- 36.7
Sep 17, 2026
East Clinton vs. Gamble Montessori
- Projected
- 14–27
- Final
- 6–42
- Projected winner
- Gamble Montessori
- Margin error
- 22.7
Sep 17, 2026
Brooklyn vs. Fairport Harding
- Projected
- 20–17
- Final
- 20–16
- Projected winner
- Brooklyn
- Margin error
- 0.9
Sep 17, 2026
Grand Valley vs. Warren JFK
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 14–42
- Projected winner
- Warren JFK
- Margin error
- 26.6
Sep 17, 2026
Union Local vs. Wheeling Central Catholic
- Projected
- 25–26
- Final
- 24–13
- Projected winner
- Wheeling Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 11.3
Sep 17, 2026
Thurgood Marshall vs. Stivers School For The Arts
- Projected
- 16–18
- Final
- 48–14
- Projected winner
- Stivers School For The Arts
- Margin error
- 36.5
Sep 17, 2026
Toledo Woodward vs. Scott
- Projected
- 17–18
- Final
- 14–32
- Projected winner
- Scott
- Margin error
- 17.8
Sep 17, 2026
Columbus West vs. Africentric
- Projected
- 25–18
- Final
- 38–8
- Projected winner
- Columbus West
- Margin error
- 22.5
Sep 17, 2026
Briggs vs. Eastmoor Academy
- Projected
- 22–14
- Final
- 46–13
- Projected winner
- Briggs
- Margin error
- 25.2
Sep 17, 2026
Walnut Ridge vs. Marion Franklin
- Projected
- 15–24
- Final
- 12–26
- Projected winner
- Marion Franklin
- Margin error
- 4.7
Sep 17, 2026
Mifflin vs. Centennial
- Projected
- 19–17
- Final
- 0–38
- Projected winner
- Mifflin
- Margin error
- 39.6
Sep 17, 2026
Columbus Independence vs. Columbus South
- Projected
- 15–25
- Final
- 8–35
- Projected winner
- Columbus South
- Margin error
- 16.8
Sep 12, 2026
Kennedy Catholic vs. Danbury
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 6–60
- Projected winner
- Kennedy Catholic
- Margin error
- 55.3
Sep 12, 2026
C4 Lions (club) vs. Foxfire
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 38–0
- Projected winner
- C4 Lions (club)
- Margin error
- 36.0
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–20 | 35–14 | Mentor | Mentor | 17.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–22 | 0–47 | Medina Highland | Medina Highland | 44.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–22 | 16–10 | Massillon Jackson | Massillon Jackson | 4.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–21 | 7–37 | Uniontown Lake | Uniontown Lake | 29.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–22 | 7–35 | Strongsville | Strongsville | 27.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 14–22 | 12–42 | North Ridgeville | North Ridgeville | 22.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 26–20 | 32–0 | Canton McKinley | Canton McKinley | 26.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 14–23 | 41–13 | Lorain | Cleveland Heights | 37.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 24–14 | 31–14 | Brunswick | Brunswick | 6.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–20 | 40–26 | Berea-Midpark | Berea-Midpark | 10.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 23–17 | 63–6 | McDowell | McDowell | 50.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 27–21 | 48–6 | Barnesville | Barnesville | 36.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 14–27 | 6–42 | Gamble Montessori | Gamble Montessori | 22.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 20–17 | 20–16 | Brooklyn | Brooklyn | 0.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 21–22 | 14–42 | Warren JFK | Warren JFK | 26.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 25–26 | 24–13 | Wheeling Central Catholic | Union Local | 11.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 16–18 | 48–14 | Stivers School For The Arts | Thurgood Marshall | 36.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 17–18 | 14–32 | Scott | Scott | 17.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 25–18 | 38–8 | Columbus West | Columbus West | 22.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 22–14 | 46–13 | Briggs | Briggs | 25.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 15–24 | 12–26 | Marion Franklin | Marion Franklin | 4.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 19–17 | 0–38 | Mifflin | Centennial | 39.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 15–25 | 8–35 | Columbus South | Columbus South | 16.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | 22–20 | 6–60 | Kennedy Catholic | Danbury | 55.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | 22–20 | 38–0 | C4 Lions (club) | C4 Lions (club) | 36.0 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.