Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 28, 2026
Groveport-Madison vs. Moeller
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 7–45
- Projected winner
- Moeller
- Margin error
- 37.7
Aug 28, 2026
Grove City vs. Westland
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 48–47
- Projected winner
- Westland
- Margin error
- 4.4
Aug 28, 2026
Central Crossing vs. Columbus West
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 3–12
- Projected winner
- Columbus West
- Margin error
- 7.9
Aug 28, 2026
Whitmer vs. Detroit King
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 7–27
- Projected winner
- Whitmer
- Margin error
- 20.9
Aug 28, 2026
Wayne vs. St. Xavier
- Projected
- 23–18
- Final
- 7–35
- Projected winner
- Wayne
- Margin error
- 33.4
Aug 28, 2026
Start vs. Clyde
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 6–33
- Projected winner
- Start
- Margin error
- 33.5
Aug 28, 2026
Springfield vs. Walsh Jesuit
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 0–1
- Projected winner
- Walsh Jesuit
- Margin error
- 2.3
Aug 28, 2026
Springboro vs. Gahanna Lincoln
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 7–24
- Projected winner
- Gahanna Lincoln
- Margin error
- 14.9
Aug 28, 2026
Perrysburg vs. Olentangy
- Projected
- 25–17
- Final
- 45–7
- Projected winner
- Perrysburg
- Margin error
- 29.5
Aug 28, 2026
Olentangy Liberty vs. Glenville
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 13–34
- Projected winner
- Olentangy Liberty
- Margin error
- 21.6
Aug 28, 2026
Middletown vs. Princeton
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 7–28
- Projected winner
- Princeton
- Margin error
- 15.0
Aug 28, 2026
Northmont vs. LaSalle
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 6–38
- Projected winner
- LaSalle
- Margin error
- 25.0
Aug 28, 2026
Miamisburg vs. Trenton Edgewood
- Projected
- 24–18
- Final
- 28–32
- Projected winner
- Miamisburg
- Margin error
- 9.4
Aug 28, 2026
Marysville vs. KIPP Columbus
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 35–21
- Projected winner
- KIPP Columbus
- Margin error
- 17.3
Aug 28, 2026
Fairmont vs. Trotwood-Madison
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 7–20
- Projected winner
- Trotwood-Madison
- Margin error
- 10.1
Aug 28, 2026
Findlay vs. Lima Senior
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 31–6
- Projected winner
- Lima Senior
- Margin error
- 28.5
Aug 28, 2026
Dublin Jerome vs. Reynoldsburg
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 31–42
- Projected winner
- Reynoldsburg
- Margin error
- 9.6
Aug 28, 2026
Dublin Coffman vs. Big Walnut
- Projected
- 24–21
- Final
- 7–39
- Projected winner
- Dublin Coffman
- Margin error
- 34.8
Aug 28, 2026
Delaware Hayes vs. Lancaster
- Projected
- 24–18
- Final
- 28–13
- Projected winner
- Delaware Hayes
- Margin error
- 8.9
Aug 28, 2026
Beavercreek vs. Cincinnati Woodward
- Projected
- 22–18
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Beavercreek
- Margin error
- 37.9
Aug 28, 2026
Strongsville vs. Medina Highland
- Projected
- 24–16
- Final
- 27–31
- Projected winner
- Strongsville
- Margin error
- 11.8
Aug 28, 2026
Stow-Munroe Falls vs. Barberton
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 44–13
- Projected winner
- Barberton
- Margin error
- 31.9
Aug 28, 2026
St. Ignatius vs. Pickerington North
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 24–21
- Projected winner
- Pickerington North
- Margin error
- 9.4
Aug 28, 2026
Shaker Heights vs. Solon
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 9–19
- Projected winner
- Shaker Heights
- Margin error
- 16.2
Aug 28, 2026
Medina vs. North Canton Hoover
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 14–18
- Projected winner
- North Canton Hoover
- Margin error
- 3.2
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–22 | 7–45 | Moeller | Moeller | 37.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–23 | 48–47 | Westland | Grove City | 4.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–20 | 3–12 | Columbus West | Columbus West | 7.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–23 | 7–27 | Whitmer | Detroit King | 20.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–18 | 7–35 | Wayne | St. Xavier | 33.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–17 | 6–33 | Start | Clyde | 33.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–24 | 0–1 | Walsh Jesuit | Walsh Jesuit | 2.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–24 | 7–24 | Gahanna Lincoln | Gahanna Lincoln | 14.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–17 | 45–7 | Perrysburg | Perrysburg | 29.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–21 | 13–34 | Olentangy Liberty | Glenville | 21.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–23 | 7–28 | Princeton | Princeton | 15.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–25 | 6–38 | LaSalle | LaSalle | 25.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–18 | 28–32 | Miamisburg | Trenton Edgewood | 9.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–22 | 35–21 | KIPP Columbus | Marysville | 17.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–22 | 7–20 | Trotwood-Madison | Trotwood-Madison | 10.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–24 | 31–6 | Lima Senior | Findlay | 28.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–21 | 31–42 | Reynoldsburg | Reynoldsburg | 9.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–21 | 7–39 | Dublin Coffman | Big Walnut | 34.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–18 | 28–13 | Delaware Hayes | Delaware Hayes | 8.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–18 | 42–0 | Beavercreek | Beavercreek | 37.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–16 | 27–31 | Strongsville | Medina Highland | 11.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–23 | 44–13 | Barberton | Stow-Munroe Falls | 31.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–25 | 24–21 | Pickerington North | St. Ignatius | 9.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–17 | 9–19 | Shaker Heights | Solon | 16.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–25 | 14–18 | North Canton Hoover | North Canton Hoover | 3.2 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
