Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 22, 2026
Thurgood Marshall vs. Purcell Marian
- Projected
- 17–19
- Final
- 0–51
- Projected winner
- Purcell Marian
- Margin error
- 49.4
Aug 22, 2026
Aiken vs. Clark Montessori
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 18–12
- Projected winner
- Aiken
- Margin error
- 4.3
Aug 22, 2026
Columbus Independence vs. Meadowdale
- Projected
- 23–19
- Final
- 6–8
- Projected winner
- Columbus Independence
- Margin error
- 6.2
Aug 22, 2026
Lakeside vs. Lutheran East
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 14–7
- Projected winner
- Lakeside
- Margin error
- 1.0
Aug 22, 2026
John Marshall vs. Lakewood
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 0–36
- Projected winner
- Lakewood
- Margin error
- 35.9
Aug 21, 2026
West Carrollton vs. Oakwood
- Projected
- 14–23
- Final
- 6–43
- Projected winner
- Oakwood
- Margin error
- 28.1
Aug 21, 2026
Blackhawk Christian vs. Fremont
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 7–46
- Projected winner
- Fremont
- Margin error
- 34.1
Aug 21, 2026
East Central vs. Lawrenceburg
- Projected
- 27–26
- Final
- 21–0
- Projected winner
- East Central
- Margin error
- 20.5
Aug 21, 2026
Bishop Dwenger vs. Roncalli
- Projected
- 23–26
- Final
- 15–14
- Projected winner
- Roncalli
- Margin error
- 4.4
Aug 21, 2026
Simon Kenton vs. Dixie Heights
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 42–13
- Projected winner
- Dixie Heights
- Margin error
- 34.4
Aug 21, 2026
Troy Christian vs. Twin Valley South
- Projected
- 17–18
- Final
- 41–0
- Projected winner
- Twin Valley South
- Margin error
- 41.7
Aug 21, 2026
Franklin Furnace Green vs. Federal Hocking
- Projected
- 17–16
- Final
- 38–32
- Projected winner
- Franklin Furnace Green
- Margin error
- 5.5
Aug 21, 2026
Fayetteville-Perry vs. Manchester
- Projected
- 13–23
- Final
- 36–0
- Projected winner
- Manchester
- Margin error
- 46.3
Aug 21, 2026
Cedarville vs. Cincinnati College Prep
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 0–30
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati College Prep
- Margin error
- 27.5
Aug 21, 2026
Ansonia vs. Riverside
- Projected
- 25–21
- Final
- 32–8
- Projected winner
- Ansonia
- Margin error
- 19.6
Aug 21, 2026
South Gallia vs. Racine Southern
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 32–30
- Projected winner
- South Gallia
- Margin error
- 0.7
Aug 21, 2026
Millersport vs. Sciotoville East
- Projected
- 19–15
- Final
- 14–0
- Projected winner
- Millersport
- Margin error
- 10.8
Aug 21, 2026
Waynesfield-Goshen vs. Mississinawa Valley
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 32–0
- Projected winner
- Waynesfield-Goshen
- Margin error
- 31.0
Aug 21, 2026
Hardin Northern vs. Toledo Christian
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 6–26
- Projected winner
- Toledo Christian
- Margin error
- 19.1
Aug 21, 2026
Edgerton vs. Edon
- Projected
- 24–22
- Final
- 7–40
- Projected winner
- Edgerton
- Margin error
- 34.8
Aug 21, 2026
Arcadia vs. Cory-Rawson
- Projected
- 15–18
- Final
- 41–14
- Projected winner
- Cory-Rawson
- Margin error
- 30.8
Aug 21, 2026
Ada vs. Upper Scioto Valley
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 30–0
- Projected winner
- Upper Scioto Valley
- Margin error
- 36.6
Aug 21, 2026
Salineville Southern vs. Toronto
- Projected
- 17–26
- Final
- 0–33
- Projected winner
- Toronto
- Margin error
- 23.2
Aug 21, 2026
Sebring McKinley vs. Kennedy Catholic
- Projected
- 19–18
- Final
- 22–38
- Projected winner
- Sebring McKinley
- Margin error
- 17.4
Aug 21, 2026
Monroeville vs. McComb
- Projected
- 23–26
- Final
- 14–48
- Projected winner
- McComb
- Margin error
- 31.8
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | 17–19 | 0–51 | Purcell Marian | Purcell Marian | 49.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | 22–20 | 18–12 | Aiken | Aiken | 4.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | 23–19 | 6–8 | Columbus Independence | Meadowdale | 6.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | 23–17 | 14–7 | Lakeside | Lakeside | 1.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | 19–20 | 0–36 | Lakewood | Lakewood | 35.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 14–23 | 6–43 | Oakwood | Oakwood | 28.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–23 | 7–46 | Fremont | Fremont | 34.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 27–26 | 21–0 | East Central | East Central | 20.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–26 | 15–14 | Roncalli | Bishop Dwenger | 4.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–23 | 42–13 | Dixie Heights | Simon Kenton | 34.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–18 | 41–0 | Twin Valley South | Troy Christian | 41.7 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–16 | 38–32 | Franklin Furnace Green | Franklin Furnace Green | 5.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 13–23 | 36–0 | Manchester | Fayetteville-Perry | 46.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–24 | 0–30 | Cincinnati College Prep | Cincinnati College Prep | 27.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 25–21 | 32–8 | Ansonia | Ansonia | 19.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–20 | 32–30 | South Gallia | South Gallia | 0.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–15 | 14–0 | Millersport | Millersport | 10.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–19 | 32–0 | Waynesfield-Goshen | Waynesfield-Goshen | 31.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–20 | 6–26 | Toledo Christian | Toledo Christian | 19.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–22 | 7–40 | Edgerton | Edon | 34.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 15–18 | 41–14 | Cory-Rawson | Arcadia | 30.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–25 | 30–0 | Upper Scioto Valley | Ada | 36.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–26 | 0–33 | Toronto | Toronto | 23.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–18 | 22–38 | Sebring McKinley | Kennedy Catholic | 17.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–26 | 14–48 | McComb | McComb | 31.8 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.