Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 28, 2026
Ellet vs. Field
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 20–30
- Projected winner
- Field
- Margin error
- 9.9
Aug 28, 2026
Cuyahoga Falls vs. Akron North
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 50–0
- Projected winner
- Akron North
- Margin error
- 50.5
Aug 28, 2026
John Hay vs. Cleveland Central Catholic
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 18–49
- Projected winner
- Cleveland Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 28.9
Aug 28, 2026
Brush vs. North Ridgeville
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 21–14
- Projected winner
- North Ridgeville
- Margin error
- 7.7
Aug 28, 2026
Boardman vs. Uniontown Lake
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 0–27
- Projected winner
- Uniontown Lake
- Margin error
- 20.1
Aug 28, 2026
Benedictine vs. Padua Franciscan
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 7–3
- Projected winner
- Benedictine
- Margin error
- 3.9
Aug 28, 2026
Bedford vs. Twinsburg
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 23–20
- Projected winner
- Twinsburg
- Margin error
- 4.4
Aug 28, 2026
Western Hills vs. Roger Bacon
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 28–41
- Projected winner
- Western Hills
- Margin error
- 15.0
Aug 28, 2026
West Clermont vs. Anderson
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 19–70
- Projected winner
- West Clermont
- Margin error
- 58.8
Aug 28, 2026
Mason vs. Sycamore
- Projected
- 19–21
- Final
- 43–24
- Projected winner
- Sycamore
- Margin error
- 20.6
Aug 28, 2026
Milford vs. Walnut Hills
- Projected
- 17–21
- Final
- 47–7
- Projected winner
- Walnut Hills
- Margin error
- 44.6
Aug 28, 2026
Lebanon vs. Loveland
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 42–7
- Projected winner
- Lebanon
- Margin error
- 28.2
Aug 28, 2026
Lakota East vs. Lakota West
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 18–48
- Projected winner
- Lakota East
- Margin error
- 32.1
Aug 28, 2026
Fairfield vs. Oak Hills
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 0–21
- Projected winner
- Oak Hills
- Margin error
- 20.1
Aug 28, 2026
Elder vs. Covington Catholic
- Projected
- 22–26
- Final
- 56–20
- Projected winner
- Covington Catholic
- Margin error
- 39.1
Aug 28, 2026
Colerain vs. Hamilton
- Projected
- 22–18
- Final
- 41–7
- Projected winner
- Colerain
- Margin error
- 30.3
Aug 28, 2026
Westerville Central vs. Westerville South
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 17–0
- Projected winner
- Westerville South
- Margin error
- 18.4
Aug 28, 2026
Thomas Worthington vs. Worthington Kilbourne
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 20–52
- Projected winner
- Worthington Kilbourne
- Margin error
- 29.6
Aug 28, 2026
Upper Arlington vs. Olentangy Berlin
- Projected
- 24–20
- Final
- 24–0
- Projected winner
- Upper Arlington
- Margin error
- 19.8
Aug 28, 2026
Pickerington Central vs. Bishop Watterson
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 0–28
- Projected winner
- Bishop Watterson
- Margin error
- 20.1
Aug 28, 2026
Olentangy Orange vs. Westerville North
- Projected
- 17–26
- Final
- 33–0
- Projected winner
- Westerville North
- Margin error
- 41.9
Aug 28, 2026
Newark vs. Mount Vernon
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 34–14
- Projected winner
- Newark
- Margin error
- 18.7
Aug 28, 2026
New Albany vs. Canal Winchester
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 28–35
- Projected winner
- New Albany
- Margin error
- 8.9
Aug 28, 2026
Hilliard Davidson vs. Wadsworth
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 8–33
- Projected winner
- Hilliard Davidson
- Margin error
- 26.8
Aug 28, 2026
Hilliard Bradley vs. Hilliard Darby
- Projected
- 19–23
- Final
- 25–19
- Projected winner
- Hilliard Darby
- Margin error
- 10.1
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–21 | 20–30 | Field | Field | 9.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–20 | 50–0 | Akron North | Cuyahoga Falls | 50.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–22 | 18–49 | Cleveland Central Catholic | Cleveland Central Catholic | 28.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–21 | 21–14 | North Ridgeville | Brush | 7.7 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–24 | 0–27 | Uniontown Lake | Uniontown Lake | 20.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–17 | 7–3 | Benedictine | Benedictine | 3.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–21 | 23–20 | Twinsburg | Bedford | 4.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–19 | 28–41 | Western Hills | Roger Bacon | 15.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–17 | 19–70 | West Clermont | Anderson | 58.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–21 | 43–24 | Sycamore | Mason | 20.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–21 | 47–7 | Walnut Hills | Milford | 44.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–17 | 42–7 | Lebanon | Lebanon | 28.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–21 | 18–48 | Lakota East | Lakota West | 32.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–22 | 0–21 | Oak Hills | Oak Hills | 20.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–26 | 56–20 | Covington Catholic | Elder | 39.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–18 | 41–7 | Colerain | Colerain | 30.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–23 | 17–0 | Westerville South | Westerville Central | 18.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–23 | 20–52 | Worthington Kilbourne | Worthington Kilbourne | 29.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–20 | 24–0 | Upper Arlington | Upper Arlington | 19.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–25 | 0–28 | Bishop Watterson | Bishop Watterson | 20.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–26 | 33–0 | Westerville North | Olentangy Orange | 41.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–20 | 34–14 | Newark | Newark | 18.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–21 | 28–35 | New Albany | Canal Winchester | 8.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–21 | 8–33 | Hilliard Davidson | Wadsworth | 26.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–23 | 25–19 | Hilliard Darby | Hilliard Bradley | 10.1 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
