Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 4, 2026
Monroe vs. Wyoming
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 21–42
- Projected winner
- Wyoming
- Margin error
- 19.6
Sep 4, 2026
Elida vs. Lima Shawnee
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 7–28
- Projected winner
- Elida
- Margin error
- 22.9
Sep 4, 2026
Dunbar vs. Cincinnati College Prep
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 26–42
- Projected winner
- Dunbar
- Margin error
- 17.4
Sep 4, 2026
Celina vs. St. Marys Memorial
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 30–28
- Projected winner
- St. Marys Memorial
- Margin error
- 6.3
Sep 4, 2026
Archbishop Carroll vs. Ponitz
- Projected
- 21–16
- Final
- 15–14
- Projected winner
- Archbishop Carroll
- Margin error
- 4.3
Sep 4, 2026
Bishop Fenwick vs. Franklin
- Projected
- 25–15
- Final
- 39–14
- Projected winner
- Bishop Fenwick
- Margin error
- 15.5
Sep 4, 2026
Bellbrook vs. Valley View
- Projected
- 26–20
- Final
- 22–0
- Projected winner
- Bellbrook
- Margin error
- 16.2
Sep 4, 2026
Archbishop Alter vs. Taft
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 44–12
- Projected winner
- Archbishop Alter
- Margin error
- 24.7
Sep 4, 2026
Aiken vs. Goshen
- Projected
- 18–27
- Final
- 12–34
- Projected winner
- Goshen
- Margin error
- 13.7
Sep 4, 2026
Wilmington vs. Mount Healthy
- Projected
- 24–18
- Final
- 27–36
- Projected winner
- Wilmington
- Margin error
- 14.9
Sep 4, 2026
Tri-Valley vs. Clinton-Massie
- Projected
- 25–17
- Final
- 57–28
- Projected winner
- Tri-Valley
- Margin error
- 20.1
Sep 4, 2026
Columbus DeSales vs. Columbus East
- Projected
- 24–22
- Final
- 35–14
- Projected winner
- Columbus DeSales
- Margin error
- 18.6
Sep 4, 2026
Miami Trace vs. Logan Elm
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 38–7
- Projected winner
- Logan Elm
- Margin error
- 36.3
Sep 4, 2026
Jonathan Alder vs. Bloom-Carroll
- Projected
- 25–19
- Final
- 35–14
- Projected winner
- Jonathan Alder
- Margin error
- 14.7
Sep 4, 2026
Jackson vs. Wheelersburg
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 14–3
- Projected winner
- Wheelersburg
- Margin error
- 12.7
Sep 4, 2026
Granville vs. Johnstown
- Projected
- 20–26
- Final
- 35–12
- Projected winner
- Johnstown
- Margin error
- 29.3
Sep 4, 2026
Eastmoor Academy vs. Linden McKinley
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 0–38
- Projected winner
- Linden McKinley
- Margin error
- 34.7
Sep 4, 2026
Chillicothe vs. Western Brown
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 56–21
- Projected winner
- Western Brown
- Margin error
- 37.2
Sep 4, 2026
Bishop Hartley vs. Chaminade Julienne
- Projected
- 21–16
- Final
- 0–28
- Projected winner
- Bishop Hartley
- Margin error
- 33.0
Sep 4, 2026
Athens vs. Marietta
- Projected
- 23–19
- Final
- 38–10
- Projected winner
- Athens
- Margin error
- 24.5
Sep 4, 2026
West Holmes vs. Orrville
- Projected
- 20–26
- Final
- 50–39
- Projected winner
- Orrville
- Margin error
- 17.4
Sep 4, 2026
Rogers vs. Rossford
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 14–35
- Projected winner
- Rossford
- Margin error
- 20.1
Sep 4, 2026
River Valley vs. Buckeye Valley
- Projected
- 17–22
- Final
- 21–35
- Projected winner
- Buckeye Valley
- Margin error
- 8.9
Sep 4, 2026
Mansfield Madison vs. Norwalk
- Projected
- 22–16
- Final
- 42–7
- Projected winner
- Mansfield Madison
- Margin error
- 29.5
Sep 4, 2026
Lexington vs. Clear Fork
- Projected
- 16–27
- Final
- 7–17
- Projected winner
- Clear Fork
- Margin error
- 0.8
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–24 | 21–42 | Wyoming | Wyoming | 19.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–21 | 7–28 | Elida | Lima Shawnee | 22.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–22 | 26–42 | Dunbar | Cincinnati College Prep | 17.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–24 | 30–28 | St. Marys Memorial | Celina | 6.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–16 | 15–14 | Archbishop Carroll | Archbishop Carroll | 4.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 25–15 | 39–14 | Bishop Fenwick | Bishop Fenwick | 15.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 26–20 | 22–0 | Bellbrook | Bellbrook | 16.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 24–17 | 44–12 | Archbishop Alter | Archbishop Alter | 24.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 18–27 | 12–34 | Goshen | Goshen | 13.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 24–18 | 27–36 | Wilmington | Mount Healthy | 14.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 25–17 | 57–28 | Tri-Valley | Tri-Valley | 20.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 24–22 | 35–14 | Columbus DeSales | Columbus DeSales | 18.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 19–24 | 38–7 | Logan Elm | Miami Trace | 36.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 25–19 | 35–14 | Jonathan Alder | Jonathan Alder | 14.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–24 | 14–3 | Wheelersburg | Jackson | 12.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–26 | 35–12 | Johnstown | Granville | 29.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 19–22 | 0–38 | Linden McKinley | Linden McKinley | 34.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–24 | 56–21 | Western Brown | Chillicothe | 37.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–16 | 0–28 | Bishop Hartley | Chaminade Julienne | 33.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–19 | 38–10 | Athens | Athens | 24.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–26 | 50–39 | Orrville | West Holmes | 17.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 19–20 | 14–35 | Rossford | Rossford | 20.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–22 | 21–35 | Buckeye Valley | Buckeye Valley | 8.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–16 | 42–7 | Mansfield Madison | Mansfield Madison | 29.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 16–27 | 7–17 | Clear Fork | Clear Fork | 0.8 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
